179. Wolfsburg/Dortmund to DRAW @ 3.56/+256 (GER) 1u Marathon
Both of these sides find themselves in the same situation. Both have lost mid week away European games. Both have injuries to key players. Both have only won 1 out of their past 4 games. Both are finding it hard to find the back of the net. I expect both to be happy not losing this game as well.
180. Eintracht Frankfurt ML @ 2.43/+143 (GER) 1u Pinnacle 181. Eintracht Frankfurt OVER 2.5 @ 1.96/-104 (GER) 1u Bet365
The home side have no injury concerns and come into the match undefeated in their past 5 games in all competitions. Both sides here have had 3 of their past 5 games go over 2.5. The last 7 head to head encounters have also ended over the total including the last time Union Berlin played in Frankfurt losing 5-2 back in March. Hoping for something similar on Sunday.
182. Newcastle/Norwich OVER 2.5 @ 1.93/-107 (ENG) 1u Pinnacle
A cellar dweller battle where a draw doesn't do either side any good. Both sides will throw caution to the wind in search of the 3 points. Newcastle has given up a league high 29 goals against and Norwich has the 2nd most goals against with 27. Newcastle will be without two key players at the back, Lascelles & Ritchie who are both suspended. Head to head 6 of the past 7 meetings ended over the total.
183. Salernitana/Juventus UNDER 2.75 @ 2.01/+101 (ITA) 1u Pinnacle
Salernitana have scored a league low 11 goals this season and will host struggling Juventus who have failed to score in their last 2 games. Juventus have only scored 18 goals in 14 league games this season. Form wise 3 of the past 5 games for both sides have ended under the total. Thinking 1-0 or 2-0 for Juventus in this game.
184. Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.05/+105 (ENG) 1u Bet365
League leaders Chelsea travel to Watford where the last time they played the Blues came out victorious with a 3-0 scoreline. Chelsea have allowed a league low 5 goals against and out of the 9 wins they have in the league this season 8 have been to nil. I like the plus money value in this prop as a best way to back Chelsea.
185. Leicester City +0.25 @ 1.84/-119 (ENG) 1u Pinnacle
Heading into this game Leicester have won their last 2 games & Southampton have lost their last pair. In the last 3 head to head Leicester wins 1 and draws one. The Saints have only 2 wins at home this season where as The Foxes are unbeaten in their past 4 away games with 2 wins and 2 draws.
186. Strasbourg/Bordeaux OVER 2.5 @ 1.81/-123 (FRA) 1u Marathon
Strasbourg have scored 18 goals in 8 of their home games this season. Bordeaux conceded 32 goals against which is the worst record in the league. The last head to head meeting ended with Strasbourg winning 3-2.
187. Lens PK @ 1.87/-115 (FRA) 1u Marathon
The promoted side Clermont have come crashing down to earth and are my pick to be relegated. They are in the poorest form in the league with 5 straight loses and they have managed to keep only 1 clean sheet in the past 13 games. Give me Lens not to lose here.
Busy hosting yet another b-day tonight and on Saturday... will be in and out.
No time for write ups... here we go for Saturday; 188. Newcastle United ML @ 2.35/+135 (ENG) 1u Unibet 189. Sevilla ML @ 2.06/+106 (SPA) 1u Pinnacle 190. Real Madrid ML @ 2.30/+130 (SPA) 1u Marathon 191. Arminia Bielefeld +0.25 @ 2.01/+101 (GER) 1u Bet365
199. Empoli PK @ 1.88/-114 (ITA) 1u Unibet
Although all signs seem to point to a draw as both sides have had 3 of their past 5 games end level, I think home advantage here is key. The last 2 times Udinese played at Empoli both ended as losses of 2-1 & 1-0. Form wise the home side is undefeated in the past 3 and Udineses are winless in their past 6 games. Covering myself with the draw no bet option in this one.
200. Brentford/Watford OVER 2.5 @ 2.01/+101 (ENG) 1u Bet365
A numbers play for me here as Watford average 3.27 goals per game this season and Brentford average 2.67 gpg. for a combines 2.97 goals per game. Form wise Watford have had their past 4 games go over the total and Brentford have had 3 of their past 5 go over 2.5. Last head to head game ended with a 3-1 scoreline. Both sides missing key players at the back I like the value here at plus money.
201. Reims ML @ 2.20/+120 (FRA) 1u Pinnacle
St Etienne sit dead last in the table with the leagues worst goal differential and losers of 3 straight travel to Reims who have only lost once in their past 5 games. The last time St Etienne played in Reims they lost 3-1. The visitors also sacked their manager Claude Puel, but I do not expect that much of a rejuvenated side. As the saying goes "you are what your record sais you are".
202. Ac Milan ML @ 1.95/-105 (ITA) 1u Marathon 203. Ac Milan/Udinese OVER 2.5 @ 2.00/+100 (ITA) 1u Marathon
Top of the table AC Milan travel to winlesss in their past 5 Udinese. Udinese are in bad form having won only once in the last 10 games. The last time Milan played at Udinese they won 2-1. I also see goals here as Milan average 3.31 goals per game and Udinese average 3.00 gpg. Form wise 4 of the last 5 for Udinese finished over the total and for Milan 3 of the past 5 have also gone over 2.5.
204. Espanyol ML @ 2.10/+110 (SPA) 1u Bet365
Once again fading Levante who are dead last in the table. Levante have only 1 away win since the summer and that was versus a non league side in a cup match. Espanyol have a great home record unbeaten in their last 6 (5W 1L) and have the leagues 3rd best defense allowing only 15 GA this season. I had this match pegged at 1.80/-125 so it almost made my list as a 2 unit play.
205. Valencia ML @ 1.80/-125 (SPA) 1u BetSens.
The home side Valencia are undefeated in their past 6 games. Elche have only 1 win away from home this season. Valencia are chasing the final European spot and are only a point behind Barcelona. Head to head Valencia have won all 3 at home 1-0, 3-1 & 2-1. I think the Bats roll in this match, thinking a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline favouring the home side.
206. Sevilla +0.25 @ 1.85/-117 (SPA) 1u Pinnacle
Bilbao are really out of form they are winless in their past 7 games and in their last 5 they were held scoreless. Sevilla did crash out of the Champions league midweek but they are 2nd in the table behind Real Madrid and I do fancy them getting something out of this game.
207. Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 @ 2.18/+118 (GER) 1u Pinnacle
Good price here for the total as both sides have had their last 3 games go over 2.5. Last head to head also went over when Wolfsburg won 3-1. Combined this season these teams average 2.86 goals per game so getting plus money here is value in my books.
214. Arsenal ML @ 2.26/+126 (ENG) 1u Marathon
I'm backing the Gunners on home form where they come into this match undefeated in their past 9 games (8W 1D) The last 4 games at home they have not allowed a goal against. The visitors West Ham after a great start to the season are beginning to show fatigue as of late having only won 1 match in their past 5 away games. Anything at plus money here is a play.
215. Union Berlin/ Freiburg to DRAW @ 3.46/+246 (GER) 1u Bet365
There is very little to separate these sides as 6th place Berlin host 5th place Freiburg. Both sides lost on the weekend and the last time Freiburg played in Berlin the game ended level at 1-1. Looking for a similar result on Wednesday.
216. Espanyol +0.5 @ 1.85/-117 (SPA) 1u Pinnacle
I was leaning draw in this game but after digging deep I think Espanyol might get a result in this match. Celta Vigo at home have been horrible lately only 1 win 6 losses and 2 draws this season. The past 7 head to head 6 ended level and Espanyol won 1. I had this match set at +140 for CV so plenty of value on the visitors here.
217. Bayern Munich/Wolfsburg Total Cards UNDER 3 @ 2.08/+108 (GER) 1u Pinnacle
Any time you have a game played in front of no fans the card number leans to the Under. Also this match is not a derby and the last time these sides met there were 3 cards issued. Another trend for under cards is a clear favourite any team laying -400 or better.
Damn late goal to rob me on that Sevilla Draw.... oh well a pair for Sunday 224. Fiorentina OVER 3 @ 1.82/-122 (ITA) 1u Bet365 225. Real Betis +0.25 @ 1.96/-104 (SPA) 1u Bet365
231. West Ham ML @ 1.91/-110 (ENG) 1u Pinnacle
15th place Southampton visit the 5th place Hammers on Boxing day. The Saints are in bad form winless in their last 6 games. West Ham have been really good at home this season already beating the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham & Chelsea. Really good value IMO at any price above 1.80/-125.
232. Brentford +0.5 @ 1.99/-101 (ENG) 1u Bet365
The late match on Boxing Day features both sides who are level on points with 20 this season. This is a form play for me as the hosts are winless in their last 12 games and home has not been such an advantage where they are also winless in their past 5 games. I had this match pegged as a Draw so getting the double chance at basically evens is value.
233. Watford/West Ham OVER 2.5 @ 1.83/-120 (ENG) 1u
The past 5 games for Watford have gone over the 2.5 total. The past 2 for West Ham also over. Both sides are suspect at the back & both are in need of the full 3 points so I expect an open game. Head to head wise the last 3 matches also have gone over the 3.5 total.
234. Chelsea win to Nil @ 2.20/+120 (ENG) 1u Bet365
The past 4 head to head games between these sides at Chelsea ended 2-0,2-0-2-0 & 0-0. Brighton got shutout in all 4 games. This season Brighton's matches average only 1.94 goals per game. Chelsea have the leagues 2nd best GA with only 13 allowed. Finally this prop is back at plus money which is a play in my books.
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.... oh well a pair for Sunday
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