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28. Arsenal/Chelsea OVER 2.25 @ 1.98/-102 (ENG) 1u
Another strict numbers play. Both teams averaged 2.47 goals per game last season. Out of the past 7 head to head encounters 6 have gone over the number. Form wise 3 of the past 5 for Arsenal go over & 4 of the past 5 for Chelsea have gone over.
29. Real Sociedad OVER 2.5 @ 1.85/-117 (SPA) 1U
It has been nothing but unders this week in Spain but I think that trends ends today. The past 4 head to head meetings all have gone over the number. Form wise 2 of the past 3 go over for the newly promoted Rayo Vollecano & 3 of the past 3 for Sociedad ended over. Last season Real Sociedads matches averaged 2.55 goals per game and I think they win big and easy here.
30. West Ham/Leicester City to DRAW @ 3.52+252 (ENG) 1U Pinnacle
31. West Ham/Leicester City OVER 2.5 @ 1.85/-117 (ENG) 1u Marathon
It is very rare that I back a draw with an over. Both of these teams are in form with very little to separate the sides. The last 4 trips to London for Leicester they have a 1W 1L 2D record. The past 5 head to head all have gone over the total. Last season Leicester City led the league with 3.11 goals per game, West Hams was 2.87 gpg. Last season once again little to separate the sides with LC finishing in 5th & the Hammers in 6th. Thinking 2-2.
32. Sevilla ML @ 2.37/+137 (SPA) 1u Pinnacle
The past 4 head to head encounters all were wins by Sevilla with zero goals against. Sevilla started the season with a clean sheet and Getafe failed to score in their opener. Getafe barely survived relegation last season finishing in 15h spot where as Sevilla finished in 4th. I love the value in the away side here.
33. Sampdoria/AC Milan UNDER 3 @ 1.70/-143 (1u) Pinnacle
I know its a tad juicy but I'm wary of Italy so far in the opening week with 7 of 8 games going over. The last head to head game here ended 1-1 and of the past 13 head to head games 10 ended under. Form wise 3 of the past 5 games for both sides have gone under. Thinking 1-1 final.
Updated after Aug 23rd
SPA 6-3 +449
FRA 5-2 +298
ENG 6-5 +279
ITA 2-0 +206
GER 3-1 +201
34. Marseille ML @ 1.83/-120 (FRA) 1u Pinnacle
35. Marseille/St Etienne OVER 2.5 @ 1.91/-110 (FRA) 1u Marathon
I know its early but I only see the line here getting shorter for the home side. This is a true form play for me as the visitors St Etienne are winless in the past 6 where as Marseille are undefeated in the past 11. The last head to head result was a 2-1 result in favour of Marseille. I like the total to go over as well. Form wise 5 of the past 7 go over for the visitors and 7 of 9 go over for Marseille. Last season Marseille's games averaged 2.60 & St Etienne 2.53.
36. Fiorentina ML @ 2.27/+127 (ITA) 1u Pinnacle
Jumping on this line early as I see these odds shortening closer to kick off time. Torino barely survived relegation last season and I do not trust them on the road. Fiorentina have won the last 2 games at home versus Torino. Both sides lost their season openers. Fiorentina in Rome & Torino at home to Atalanta. Fiorentina were a man down in the 17th minute when their keeper was red carded. I also like the over here but will hold back because I want even money on the total.
37. Liverpool/Chelsea to DRAW @ 3.46/+246 (ENG) 1u Marathon
There is not much to separate these two sides both of which started off the season with 2 wins. It is early in the season so i do see any team really pressing for the win. I'm expecting a low scoring 1-1 or 0-0 type of match. There is not much value on the under as I wanted plus money on the total.
38. Aston Villa ML @ 2.03/+103 (ENG) 2u Bet365
Newly promoted Brentford have had a great start to their season with a win and a draw. Aston Villa have also started to get their game in form with a 2-0 win over Newcastle last weekend and a 6-0 mid week drubbing over Barrow. I think Brentford will find it difficult on the road and getting plus money on the home side is ridiculous so I'm laying 2 units on the villains.
39. Everton +0.25 @ 1.86/-116 (ENG) 1u Pinnacle
I will be backing Everton again this week versus a side that I believe is "punching above their weight". Brighton won their first two fixtures albeit versus subpar opposition. Everton are also undefeated to start the season and I expect that trend to continue. The past three head to head meetings Everton wins 2 and one ended level.
40. Borussia Monchengladbach PK @ 1.98/-102 (GER) 1U Unibet
Everyone is expecting a tight game and that is reflected in the odds. I do like the visitors that I backed in the season opener for two reasons. The head to head record favours Borussia who have one win and 2 draws. The edge might be is games played lately. Union Berlin is in the conference league so since August 14th Berlin have played 4 times including travel to Finland where as Borussia played only once.
41. Wolfsburg/Leipzig OVER 2.5 @ 1.86/-116 (GER) 1u Marathon
As with all totals a numbers play. Form wise 3 of the past 5 games have gone over the number. Last season Leipzig's games averaged 2.71 goals per game & Wolfsburg's averaged 2.88. The last head to head meeting ended with a 2-2 result. Anything better than 1.70/-143 is a play.
42. Tottenham -1 @ 1.84/-119 (ENG) 1u Bet365
The Spurs will be looking to continue their perfect start to the season versus newly promoted Watford. The Hornets have an awful away record having not won a game since April. Spurs are yet to concede a goal this season and now with the Harry Kane saga over and done with I'm expecting a comfortable victory.
43. Wolves/Manchester United OVER 2.5 @ 1.96/-104 (ENG) 1u Marathon
Lets look at the numbers, last season Manchester's games averaged 3.06 goals per game that was second highest in the league. Wolves averaged 2.32. The last meeting between the 2 ended with a 2-1 scoreline in favour of United. The red devils always seem to leak goals away from home so I'm expecting a similar result as the last head to head meeting.
44. Sassuolo ML @ 2.05/+105 (ITA) 1u Marathon
I backed the Neroverdi last week to open the season and they did not disappoint. I really fancy them to compete for a spot in Europe this season. Sassouolo did the double over Sampdoria last season winning 3-2 away and 1-0 at home. Sampdoria are now winless in the past four head to head meetings. Getting plus money on the home side is value in my books as I had this match pegged at 1.80/-125.
45. Strasbourg/Brest OVER 2.5 @ 1.90/-111 (FRA) 1u Marathon
Here are the numbers; last season Strasbourg's matches averaged 2.82 goals per game & Brest 3.05. The past 5 head to head encounters all went over the total including the last time they met with a 2-2 scoreline. Form wise both sides have had 3 of the past 5 go over. Ligue 1 has started slow this season with more games ending under the total. I expect a return to the mean starting with this match up.
46. Barcelona/Getafe OVER 3 @ 2.31/+131 (SPA) 1u Pinnacle
I know Spain has been an under machine to start the season with 20 of 26 games going under the total, but if there is one team that can break through that trend is Barcelona. Last season Barcelona's games averaged a league high 3.24 goals per game. Levante was not far behind averaging 2.71 gpg. which was 5th highest. The last time these sides met Barca came out on top 5-2
47. Atletico Madrid ML @ 1.83/-120 (1u) Pinnacle
Atletico Madrid have had a perfect start to the season with 2 wins. Villareal are still looking not only for their first victory bit for their first goal. Villareal are also winless in the past 6 head to head games versus Atletico. Madrid are almost unbeatable at home having lost only 2 games in the past 37.
Updated heading into Sep 10th
1. FRA 8-2 +598
2. SPA 6-4-1 +329
3. ENG 8-7-1 +321
4. ITA 3-1 +233
5. GER 3-3 -017
48. Monaco/Marseille OVER 2.5 @ 1.96/-104 (FRA) 1u Marathon
The past 4 head to head meetings all ended over the total with 17 goals scored for an average of 4.25. Form wise 2 of the past 3 for Monaco have gone over. Marseille come into the match with 5 straight overs and having failed to keep a clean sheet in the past 9. Last season in league play Marseille averaged 2.66 & Monaco 3.11 goals per game.
49. Empoli ML @ 1.87/-115 (ITA) 1u Marathon
Newly promoted Venezia are not only looking for their first point of the season but also their first goal. Empoli have a great home record going back to last September they were undefeated in 27 games before losing out to Lazio a few weeks ago. Give me the home side at anything better than 1.75/-133.
50. Levante ML @ 2.13/+113 (SPA) 1u Pinnacle
Rayo the promoted side won their home opener versus Granada but lost the first 2 away games to Sevilla & Real Sociedad. Levante's home opener was a 3-3 result against Real Madrid. The last time Rayo Vallecano visited Levante last season they lost 4-1. Give me plus money on a home victory.
51. Freiburg ML @ 2.19/+119 (GER) 1u Pinnacle
I like the plus money on the home side here. I think it offers excellent value on a team that is very much in form. Freiburg have 4 wins and 1 draw in the past 5 games. Freiburg also did the double over Koln last season and it wasn't even close winning 4-1 away in Koln and 5-0 at home.
52. Manchester United -2 @1.93/-107 (ENG) 1u Pinnacle
53. Manchester United/Newcastle OVER 3.5 @ 2.15/+115 (ENG) 1u Pinnacle
CR7 returns to Manchester and its must see TV and as scripted I expect the home side to win big. I feel for Newcastle fans with their reuse toilet seat covers Ashley. The last 3 times these sides met, Manchester wins 3-1,3-1 & 4-1. The last 2 home games for the Red Devils they win 4-0 & 5-1.
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tailed mate....CR7 mate VAMANANOUSOriginally Posted by DiamondJack
54. Atletico Bilbao ML @ 1.80/-125 (SPA) 1u Bet Sens.
I was waiting to pull the trigger here untill I saw the lineups prior to kickoff. With many players getting back from international duty there were already 2 postponed games in La Liga this weekend. I once again like Bilbao at home as the last 3 times Mallorca played there they lost 3-1 2-1 & 1-0.
55. Leeds/Liverpool OVER 3 @ 1.85/-117 (ENG) 2u Pinnacle
The past 6 home game for Leeds all have gone over the total. The past 5 away games for Liverpool have gone over. Last season Leeds matches averaged 3.05 goals per game and Liverpool 2.89. We also had that 4-3 thriller last season between these sides. I expect plenty of goals on Sunday.
56. Eintracht Frankfurt ML @ 2.10/+110 (GER) 2u Pinnacle
Both sides are in poor form to start the season, but I really love the value on the home side for 2 reasons. First Frankfurt are on a great 20 game home unbeaten streak. Second the visitors Stuttgart are riddled with injuries. Star striker Kalajdzic is out for the season and already ruled out for the game are; Ahamada, Cisse, Egloff, Sankoh and Mvumpa.
57. Bochum/Hertha Berlin to DRAW @ 3.44/+244 (GER) 1u Pinnacle
Newly promoted Bochum host out of form Hertha Berlin who remain pointless to start the season. Bochum are the odds on favourite to be relegated but home advantage will be key here. Hertha have more quality on their side and they need a point here. Any game where both teams can't afford to lose usually ends level.
58. Atletico Madrid ML @ 1.98/-102 (SPA) 1u Marathon
Madrid are clearly the far superior side in this match up. Griezmann's return just adds more strength to the Colchoneros (my fav nickname). Espanyol are yet to score a goal this season. Espanyol will also be without Sergi Gomez while Herrera and Pedrosa also look likely to miss out. Give me the visitors at or around evens.
59. Metz ML @ 2.44/+144 (FRA) 1u Bet Sens.
Another battle of out of form sides & I have to back the home team. Metz are unbeaten at home in the past 7 games and Troyes are currently bottom of the table in France with a single point, Give me the home side at great plus money value.
60. Spezia/Udinese to DRAW @ 3.64/+264 (ITA) 1u Marathon
Because Stone Cold said so!!!.....I had to do it after these Tide commercials. Udinese are great in form but will be away to Spezia who are also great at home so with not much to separate the sides I have to back the draw.
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61. Real Madrid -1.5 @ 2.25/+125 (SPA) 1u Marathon
Real Madrid return to the Bernabeu after 18 months of renovations and I expect them to impress. Last season Madrid did the double over Celta Vigo with 3-1 & 2-0 socrelines. The visitors are out of form with only a single point to start the season and I expect them to struggle in this match.
62. Hertha Berlin ML @ 1.75/-133 (GER) 1u Marathon
63. Hertha Berlin/Greuther Furth OVER 2.5 @ 1.83/-120 (GER) 1u Pinnacle
The visitors Greuther Furth are the poorest side in the Bundesliga and no doubt their payroll reflect their position in the table, dead last with a single point. Hertha Berlin finally broke out of their funk and won 3-1 at Bochum last week. I also see goals in this match up as these are the 2 worse defensive teams this season with both having conceded 11GA which is the leagues worse. Form wise 3 of 5 go over for Gruther Furth & 4 of 5 go over for Hertha Berlin. I see a high scoring win for the home side.
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dawg58kahn gave DiamondJack 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
