[Sato]

Actually scanning this game right now. Both ml juicy.

Probably a low scoring match.
Lean Poland because of pressure to advance (they must win).
They play on neutral ground (russia saint petersburg).

My bookie offers me Poland to win & under 2.5 goals +450 and Poland to win & under 3.5 goals +230

...

[semibluff]

Poland 1-0 is +750 and Poland 2-0 is +1200. Those are 'near top-end' prices which would be a net +414. If you like those outcomes then +450 would be a very fair price. Poland win & Under 3.5 would include Poland 2-1, (+950), and 3-0, (+2200). That would be a net +200 so +230 would be a very fair price.

I make no comment as to a recommendation of the book you mentioned.