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UEFA Champions League best bets for second leg of the quarterfinals ⚽
UEFA Champions League best bets for second leg of the quarterfinals
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The first leg of the quarterfinals saw Bayern Munich and Liverpool stumble the most. Bayern's SPI chances to advance dropped from 67% to 29% after a 3-2 home loss to PSG, and Liverpool's odds fell from 53% to 20% after a 3-1 defeat in Madrid.
Chelsea's 2-0 "away" win over Porto (both legs are in Seville) bumped the Blues' chances of reaching the semis to 99%, and Manchester City's projection (84%) barely moved after a 2-1 home win over Dortmund.
I don't know that we truly learned much about any of the teams in the first leg, so these plays echo several of my first-leg thoughts. As always, with the possibility of extra time in the second leg, remember that bets are for 90 minutes unless otherwise indicated.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Chelsea vs. Porto (Chelsea leads 2-0)
It's a broken record, but a lucrative one. Of the 17 Chelsea games under Thomas Tuchel, 14 have had two or fewer goals.
Admittedly, this first leg could easily have had three goals, as the teams combined for 18 shots and 3.0 expected goals. And the Blues seemed to be opening up the attack in Saturday's 4-1 win at Crystal Palace, with 23 shots and 3.3 expected goals, both highs under Tuchel. That gives them 10 goals and 9.0 expected goals over the past four games.
But leading by two goals, Chelsea has every motivation to lock this second leg down. Against a Porto attack that has topped 1.6 expected goals once in its past five games, I'll take what might be one last ride on the Chelsea under train.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-120)
PSG vs. Bayern Munich (PSG leads 3-2)
My Bayern-to-win pick didn't work out in the snowy first leg, though it wasn't for a lack of effort on Bayern's part. Even without Robert Lewandowski, the defending champs outshot PSG 31-6 and had 3.8 expected goals to PSG's 1.5, so the game played out about as anticipated. Bayern dominated much of the game, particularly in the midfield, and PSG simply finished better, with a counterattack that wasn't hampered by the absence of Marco Verratti, who seems likely to return after a positive COVID-19 test.
After beating Barcelona 4-1 in the first leg of the previous round, PSG surrendered the ball even more in the second leg (28% possession), which ended in a 1-1 draw. PSG will likely do the same against Bayern, and that means this game should look a lot like last week's game, with Bayern dominating possession and the shot count. Maybe PSG finds enough on the counter to pull out a draw, but I'm betting against it.
And if you're feeling braver, Bayern to advance (+225) is a decent, accurately priced bet for the most likely underdog to advance this round. This game may look a lot like the first leg, with a very different score.
Pick: Bayern win (+120)
Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City (City leads 2-1)
I'm not concerned by City's 2-1 home loss on Saturday, when City outshot Leeds 29 to 2 and had 2.2 expected goals to Leeds' 0.1.
I'm a little concerned that Manchester City wasn't as dominant as expected in the first leg against Dortmund, taking only 11 shots and conceding two very good chances, the second of which Marco Reus converted to temporarily tie the game late.
But I still like City early here. City has outshot opponents and had more expected goals in 22 of 26 first halves in 2021, and Dortmund has allowed better first-half chances in all three knockout-stage games, plus 2021 matches against top German clubs Bayern and RB Leipzig.
The draw also has appeal given the price, as a repeat of the first leg is a very realistic scenario -- an early City goal and a late Dortmund goal, with City hanging on to advance.
Picks: Man City to win first half (+110), draw (+310)
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid (Real Madrid leads 3-1)
Liverpool's first-leg performance was among its worst this season, with only seven shots and 0.8 expected goals, both ranking in the club's bottom five among its 45 games in all competitions.
Toni Kroos was given far too much time in the midfield, as he led all Real Madrid players with 86 touches and had a game-high four chances created, including the beautiful assist on Vinicius Junior's opening goal.
Needing at least two goals, Liverpool will surely press Kroos and company more in the midfield, and that sets up well for Real Madrid to strike quickly on the counter, much like the second leg against Atalanta.
Between Liverpool's desperation and the continued absence of each team's preferred center-back pairing, for injury and COVID-19 reasons, I don't see this game staying under, so it's back to the well.
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-150)
Former ESPN senior researcher Paul Carr is director of content for TruMedia.
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