The -1 Draw for my book almost always carries 3.5 odds or higher, Sometimes a ridiculous price of like 5.0 when you are almost certain a game will end up with a 1 goal winner. For those who don't know what it is... any game that ends up with 1 team winning by 1 goal = cash.
Ex. 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 etc...
Ex. Round 1 of the Last 16 CL matches: 6 out of 8 = -1 Draws.
Ex. So far 19 out of 40 friendlies from March 3-4 ended up in -1 draws. (most of the ones that didn't you would already predict to be easy 2 or more goal wins anyway)
I've been starting to use this strategy in tight matches with small bets. Most of the times when the games I chose to be tight failed was when the opposition went from 2-1 to 3-1 or 2-2 in the last minute. It is a risky bet, but I'm finding that if you know what league and which games to but on it's pretty profitable.
Any thoughts?