[Gaze73]

This thread is dedicated to doggos.

Crystal Palace ML +223

[Gaze73]

Frosinone +0.5 +131

[Gaze73]

Padova +0 +139

2019th post, yay.

[Hman]

GL Gaze

[Gaze73]

GL Gaze

Thanks, decent start so far.

Crystal Palace +223 Win 2:0

Frosinone +0.5 +131 Win 0:4, just your typical +520 dog win, lol.

Padova +0 +139 Lost in 94', damn clowns. The thing I hate most about handicaps is when one dog wins SU and the other doesn't even push, happens all the damn time.

Total 2-1 +2.54

[Gaze73]

Atl Venezuela +0 +128

[Gaze73]

Talleres Cordoba +0.5 +138

[Gaze73]

Angers +0 +137
Lazio +0 +201
Envigado +0 +188

That's it for today, let's grind that value.

[Gaze73]

Atl Venezuela +0 +128 Void
Talleres Cordoba +0.5 +138 win
Angers +0 +137 Push
Lazio +0 +201 another clown team that scored first and lost to a penalty

Envigado +0 +188 pending

Total 3-2 +2.92

[Gaze73]

Envigado +0 +188 lost

Total 3-3 +1.92

Japan +0 HT +130

[Gaze73]

0:3 dog win and all I get is a stinkin push... I'll make a HT and FT bet next time in cases like this. Crystal palace was a ht/ft bet also.

[Gaze73]

Yeni Malatyaspor +0 HT +216

Very weird matchup, last team vs third and they're the favorite.

[danshan11]

Yeni Malatyaspor +0 HT +216

Very weird matchup, last team vs third and they're the favorite.

hey can you tell me where you see value in this dude, I am curious because it closed at +217 and you bet +216. did you think the line would drop or how do you do it?

[Gaze73]

hey can you tell me where you see value in this dude, I am curious because it closed at +217 and you bet +216. did you think the line would drop or how do you do it?

Yeni Malatyaspor +0 HT +216 Push because apparently 2 goals are not enough to win HT.

My numbers said there was value and that's why I took it. Look at Fenerbahce, Home stats 2:4:2, goals 12:12; Yeni Away 3:3:3 goals 10:10 - so why the heck was Yeni a +400 dog which opened at +614? Pinnacle is drunk. If I wasn't busy during the day I'd definitely have posted that price before it dropped.

Nacional +0.5 +129 - my numbers say 50% so let's grab that value.

[Gaze73]

Also in regards to the Japan game, my numbers said they have 46% chance to win, but only 14% chance to lose HT so I went with that. They won by 3 goals because they should've been favorites just like my numbers said.

[danshan11]

oh ok so you model their probability and your model is saying they should be faves and they are +200 or whatever, ok i get that, cool, thanks for the replies

[Gaze73]

Lens +151

[Gaze73]

Total 3-5 -0.08

I also shoulda posted Rayo but I didn't believe it myself. Gotta trust the numbers, my models are impeccable! I'll loot the bookies tomorrow.

[Gaze73]

Metz - Nancy X +271

[Gaze73]

Nothing like a 19' red card to start the day.

St Pauli +175
La Equidad +575

[Gaze73]

Peterborough X +271
Manchester Utd HT X +190

[jjgold]

no such thing as value big volume sports

[Gaze73]

no such thing as value big volume sports

I beg to differ. One of the most fundamental truths in life is that most people are stupid, plain and simple. That means the betting market is also stupid, and therefore exploitable. Most people keep doing the same thing over and over again, betting on the same overrated favorites day after day, which leaves a lot of value on certain dogs. I'm slowly but surely learning to identify the value dogs. Don't be surprised when I hit a +800 winner within a week. Hell, I just had a +520 win on day one but I took a safer handicap instead of ML.

[Merkel]

Gaze still at it. Another abandoned thread coming up. Extra thick indeed.

[Gaze73]

Metz - Nancy X +271 loss, early red card
St Pauli +175 loss, 2/1 turnaround
Peterborough X +271 Win ez money
Manchester Utd HT X +190 Win ez money, those clowns nearly lost the game. And Manchester city lost to a +1800 dog. See, favs suck.

Total 5-7 +2.61

[Gaze73]

Let's splash some money on NHL

Jets -0.5 +236

[Gaze73]

La Equidad +575 lost. Won HT, lost to a red card + penalty. Out of the 15 games I posted I collected like 7 red cards and/or penalties, it's unreal. Might as well start taking the prop bets that my dog gets penalized.

Jets -0.5 +236 lost, of course they won in OT. Boston lost only 1 game at home in OT in 25 games, today was the second time.

I'll gamble on Larissa +502

[Gaze73]

Lamia X +225

[Gaze73]

Larissa +502 draw in 94', jesus f***** christ. My EV in this thread is like +10 units but oh well.

Total 5-10 -0.39

[Gaze73]

Setif HT X +100

[Gaze73]

Watford +475, if it's another draw I'm done lol.

[Gaze73]

Look at these worthless favs. Unfortunately Watford blew it after winning HT, just like every other dog in this cursed thread lol.

[Merkel]

All your threads are cursed.

[danshan11]

Gaze repeat after me favorites are not the enemy!

[Gaze73]

Gaze repeat after me favorites are not the enemy!

You've not been paying attention. If you faded all my dogs(I posted 2 weak favs) you'd be 8-9 at minus odds, and that's with a major help of multiple red cards, penalties, super late goals and 2/1 turnarounds which statistically happen only 5% of the time. And yet the only reason I'm not in profit here is because of a 94' goal but you act like a +502 winning bet with 30 seconds to go is worthless. If favorites were any fukin good then 99% of the gamblers wouldn't be losers. The only favs that are good are in tennis.