Got Ajax to advance -220. Weird, I got it the day after they played Kiev at home. It was up for a day or so. Now its -930. Check out my Aug 23 thread I mentioned I was surprised they had it up and I pounded it, I hope others did also. 930 isnt worth taking really. Hope they honor it.
Also taking #1102 DUNDALK -215 Dundalk is the best Irish team (!! kind of a funny statement there) and they always get up for the shamrock rovers, especially at home. Dundalk is done with play in Europe (usually ends quick) and is focused on the league play. Beating the hated rovers will be job one tomorrow.
Thinking on the AEK game. Like an under, but want to buy up to 3. As of tonight not offered at 5dimes. Looking at a 1-0, 2-0 AEK result. However a 2nd leg up 2-1, normal capping might be problematic. Could park the bus to stop an away goal.
There has been some stuff lately about me not keeping records of wins n losses or how much Ive won/lost. One guy messaged me saying basically he wanted to look at my record and see if I was tailable. Another guy criticized me for taking mostly juiced plays. fair enough, Ill explain;
Ive been betting for a LONG time. Mostly at first even steven, didnt win or lose anything significant. Tried many different strategies mainly because I dig sports and like handicapping as well as get a bit of a rush when I have skin in the game. A few yrs ago I started a strategy of straight bets and parlays of usually 2, no more that 3 teams. Usually moneyline picks and, yes, usually juiced sides. I learned long ago that juiced sides win far more often than straight picks. They lose, but not nearly as much. I also learned that the more teams in a parlay, the more chances for a loss. 2 or in rare occasions 3 teams have the best results.
This forum is for soccer plays and soccer is not the only sport I play. I play all major sports. In reality I cannot tell how much Ive won with soccer since most tickets are cross-sport. Let me give examples:
Yesterday I had Billericay -166. I took it straight up and put a couple of open parlays up. I have 1 open parlay for $100 that has already $160 in it. I may just choose to throw a -2200 (Nebraska in CFB) in the open slot (I bet at 5dimes) and walk away with $170 and call it good. I might get greedy and put an even money bet in and go for $300. But "a bird in the hand...." Since Ive already walked with a 60% profit on my straight pick, doubtful Ill do it, but I might.
I also had Nijmegan at -250 on a $100 open parlay that sits at about $140 now. Im not going to hit it with -2200 for $145, Ill wait for a less juicy play. It might not be a soccer game.
For me, its all about filling the slots with winners, with one eye on price, but the other on risk. Im not going to keep meticulous records on all the tickets I buy because 1)this is a soccer forum 2)I just dont want to. It takes lots of time and effort and I have a life. This strategy has done extremely well for me the past few seasons. Being at 5dimes the variety of betting is huge. The old style of betting team X -7 at 110/100 for Y units and 7 for 10 will win you money, isnt the only strategy for betting. It would be silly to limit yourself to that. In addition the time frame is not "did I win money today" its a longer time frame and waiting for a great play to close a parlay is just fine.
I have just decided to post my soccer plays here because it seems less competitive with other posters (the only guy Im trying to beat works at 5dimes) and less testosterone driven that the football forum. Many egotistical mesomorph types there. Not worth the schitt. Dont want to be called a pussy because I took State plus the pts.
I post my plays. I try to say what my reasoning for that is. Hope everybody wins. I read all the regular soccer posters and are grateful they share their wisdom. Im a bigboy and can decide if and how to tail. I hope they win money but in reality, I dont care. Im certain youall feel the same way about me.
Im also not going to post how much I bet or what I won/lost. Its meaningless, nobody will, or should, believe me. For all anybody knows Im some Nigerian hanging out at at a net cafe in Lagos waiting for my fat kansas facebook girlfriend to wire me some more money
So when I post my plays keep in mind what my strategy is. Im simply trying to fill the slots with winners. The picks I make are the ones I feel have the best chance for winning, as luck would have it, they are the priciest. I try to mitigate risk and that is always at the expense of profit. Ive been capping for over 20 yrs and this, for me, is the only way I have made nice profits.
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Aug 28 soccer
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