[Gargamel]

Hello.

Thought I'd start my own soccer betting thread on here. It's mostly to help myself becoming a better gambler, but I'd be happy if I occasionally am able to help some others out as well.

I will generally have one or two plays a day, with a far bigger cards on the weekends. All bets are 1 unit, unless I state otherwise.

All opinions and criticism are happily taken on board, but please don't be rude in here.

All odds will be from Bet365 initially, partly because I am a lazy bugger and partly for some other reasons.

The thing I think I can bring to this forum is that I read some European betting blogs, and also some specialist knowledge on Swedish matches when the season starts, if anybody would ever want that. I'm personally most into the English game, but I'll bet on anything where I can see value.

Thanks a lot everyone. Let's get going!

[JohnAnthony]

Good luck with your venture Gargamel, will check in from time to time and hopefully I can learn a thing or two as well

[Gargamel]

21/2

Fulham to keep a clean sheet @ 2.5 LOSS
Man City v Liverpool OVER 3.5 CARDS @ 1.7 WIN
Cagliari @ 1.85 WIN
Cahliari -1 European Handicap @ 4 WIN
Real Sociedad @ 2.62 LOSS
Bilbao @ 1.8 WIN
Napoli @ 2.3 LOSS
Palermo @ 1.9 WIN
Roma @ 1.4 WIN
West Brom @ 2 LOSS
Standard Liege +0 AH @ 2.41 LOSS
Real Madrid v Villareal OVER 2.5 goals @ 1.53 WIN
Milan +0.5, AND Real Madrid @ 1.6 WIN
Real Madrid to get the most corners(Live bet, down 3-4 as I took it) @ 2.62 LOSS

--
Starting out with a large card here but I feel I can kick start this thread today! Good luck to me!

[Gargamel]

Thanks a lot JohnAnthony. I love the D.H. Lawrence quote you have there. I still remember what an experience it was reading Lady Chatterley's Lover as a (too) young boy.

[JOHON8]

I'm already on the Cagliari, Roma and Fulham ML's.

Looking forward to sharing info on here, BOL!

[Gargamel]

Welcome JOHON8! Great stuff, that.

I have a good feeling about this thread. How nice.

[Gargamel]

Good start with WBA, Roma, Cagliari and Palermo all leading inside the first half.

30 minutes to Liverpool kickoff. No bet on that game but I'm a big fan so I hope they trash those stupid Mancs. Nicely set up for Torres to score a late winner.

[Gargamel]

And there went the Fulham CS, inside 5 mines. Ahah.

[Gargamel]

A question that might be very stupid, but I don't want to make more stupid mistakes than I already do:

Does European Handicap -1 mean the same as Asian Handicap -1.5 if you bet it?

Both will win on a 2-0 scoreline, but both will lose on a 2-1.

Right?

[Gargamel]

Adding a late parlay. Partly because I'm an addict, and partly because I think it might be good enough value in it.

Milan +0.5, AND Real Madrid @ 1.6

[Smogs]

A question that might be very stupid, but I don't want to make more stupid mistakes than I already do:

Does European Handicap -1 mean the same as Asian Handicap -1.5 if you bet it?

Both will win on a 2-0 scoreline, but both will lose on a 2-1.

Right?

asian handicap -1 would give 2-1 a PUSH outcome but match handicap has 3 scenarios so 2-1 means a loss

[JOHON8]

Adding a late parlay. Partly because I'm an addict, and partly because I think it might be good enough value in it.

Milan +0.5, AND Real Madrid @ 1.6

I'm thinking about betting at the end of the 1st half for both. Milan is struggling and Bari are unlucky not to get a penalty, but still Milan have way too much firepower not to win this one. If it's still 0-0 by 45 I'm going on Milan ML which will be a little better than EVS.

Same kinda idea with the Madrid game if it works out by 45.

[Gargamel]

asian handicap -1 would give 2-1 a PUSH outcome but match handicap has 3 scenarios so 2-1 means a loss

Hi Smogs, and thanks for the response.

I understand these scenarios, but my question was regarding AH -1.5 and EH -1. There can surely be no push with AH 1.5?

The reason I'm asking is that bet365 had far higher odds for -1EH than -1.5AH on the Cagliari bet that I made today. Shouldn't the odds be the same?

Thanks, and again sorry for being stupid.

[Gargamel]

I'm thinking about betting at the end of the 1st half for both. Milan is struggling and Bari are unlucky not to get a penalty, but still Milan have way too much firepower not to win this one. If it's still 0-0 by 45 I'm going on Milan ML which will be a little better than EVS.

Same kinda idea with the Madrid game if it works out by 45.

0-1 at half time. What's your plan?

Over on Real hit inside first half, so that parlay is my only bet left for the weekend. Good start, which makes me glad.

[JOHON8]

0-1 at half time. What's your plan?

Over on Real hit inside first half, so that parlay is my only bet left for the weekend. Good start, which makes me glad.

I did well on my earlier bets today, so I'm gonna stay away from these 2 games after the results in 1h.

I think Madrid will seal their game easily even though Villa scored. Milan look a little bit more vulnerable though, but they have the difference makers in those 3 Brazillian attackers to hold the win.

[Gargamel]

All right, all right.

I added another one in the Real game. Because I'm bored and I'm an addict and I think there is value in it.

Live bet: Real Madrid to get the most corners @ 2.62. Villareal were up 4-3 when I took it.

EDIT: Turned out to be a shitty bet, as Real immediately scored and odds shot up to about 6 as Villareal got their fifth corner. Oh well.

[Raadmand]

Good luck , a fair start allready.

[Gargamel]

Thanks Raadmand!

Today's results:


Fulham to keep a clean sheet @ 2.5 LOSS
Man City v Liverpool OVER 3.5 CARDS @ 1.7 WIN
Cagliari @ 1.85 WIN
Cahliari -1 European Handicap @ 4 WIN
Real Sociedad @ 2.62 LOSS
Bilbao @ 1.8 WIN
Napoli @ 2.3 LOSS
Palermo @ 1.9 WIN
Roma @ 1.4 WIN
West Brom @ 2 LOSS
Standard Liege +0 AH @ 2.41 LOSS
Real Madrid v Villareal OVER 2.5 goals @ 1.53 WIN
Milan +0.5, AND Real Madrid @ 1.6 WIN
Real Madrid to get the most corners(Live bet, down 3-4 as I took it) @ 2.62 LOSS

--

9-6. +2.63 units

Lesson for today is to cut down on the live betting. I always make horrible second half decisions, often involving corners. Still a good day, and a good start for this thread. Weeks will be more sparse with picks, but I'll try to get a few up each day.

EDIT: I'll tail EP36 on this one. Don't know much about it but he's done well for me earlier.
America vs. Tigres OVER 2.5 @ 1.85 WIN

[Gargamel]

Good morning.

Not sure if I'll have any plays today. I'll look closer into the Valencia game of tonight, but odds look a bit small for a team that has burned me more than almost any other. I never get it right with Valencia or Sevilla. I can't figure them out. Anyway I continued the good run with two good basketball results this night, but in here I will only keep stats of my soccer betting.

[JohnAnthony]

West Brom @ 2 LOSS

What a painful turnaround that was, huh?

Good luck today my friend!

[JOHON8]

The over 2.5 is tempting on the Valencia game, the last 2 meetings had 9 goals. Valencia has a defensive crisis (read spartangreen's post), Valencia has their regular forwards upfront but Soldado is missing for Getafe. My lean is more on the Valencia ML even with all this drama, only because Valencia need the win and Getafe's away record isn't good.

BOL

[Gargamel]

Hi guys.

Yes that one was pailful JohnAnthony, but it felt all right with some other nice ones hitting. I'm still very confused why I got so much better odds on Cagliari -1EH than -1.5AH. It made my day however.

JOHON8 - I'm also leaning towards the ML on the Valencia game but I'm not sure. I'm leaning towards leaving it alone right now, as I don't trust Valencia.

For Tuesday and Wednesday there will be plenty of games. A ManU and Barca double looks almost certain for me, but more on that tomorrow.

BOL guys.

[protein]

Good thread Gargamel

Valencia is also a high risk one for me, so I´ll leav it alone.

Shitload of CL, UEFA Cup mid week

[Gargamel]

Thanks protein. I've had some good feedback this far and it gladdens me. Hopefully we can keep it that way even when I start doing badly. Fingers crossed I won't.

[Gargamel]

For anyone interested I have a bet on the Winter Olympics!

Cross Country Skiing - Women's Team Sprint: Winner - Sweden @ 1.75

I won't keep this one in the stats but I think it's a very strong play. Other top nations (Norway, Finland) are missing their stars, and Kalla and Haag already have a gold and silver medal from earlier. They will be up for it and win unless they fall or something like that.

[Gargamel]

I'll tail EP36 again, as he's done so well for me. I don't know if I should include his bes in my statistics though. How do you other guys do in your threads? Only keep record on your own plays, or on every play?

Anyway:

Schaffhausen v Locarno OVER 3 @ 1.825 WIN
Schaffhausen v Locarno 1st half OVER 1, 1.5 @ 1.95 WIN

I'm sure they'll hit. His plays always do.

[doxinho]

I'm pretty sure you can do whatever you want to do!

I'd say post 'em all to get a solid record going... (be sure to mention if you're tailing/fading)

[Gargamel]

1st half OVER hit inside 30 mins. Thought it was a good play as EP36 predicted OVER 3 on the whole game. Also, if anyone took the Swedish women skiing team they cruised into the finals

Considered a Shrewsbury PK or +0.5 bet but ultimately decided against it.

I'll add another one that I won't keep stats on in here as well. They are crap but with 7.5 goals+ they should be safe.
Sweden women's ice hockey team +7.5 @ 1.8

[Gargamel]

All right. Both plays hit today, but the swedish women finished second after leading the whole race.

Still a good day for me. Second alternative play might also hit. Thanks to EP36.

Schaffhausen v Locarno OVER 3 @ 1.825 WIN
Schaffhausen v Locarno 1st half OVER 1, 1.5 @ 1.95 WIN

Today
2-0 +1.775 u

Total
11-6. +4.405 u

[Gargamel]

Oh well, the second olympics play didn't hit either. USA beating Sweden 9-1 after a late goal. Crap. I should stick to soccer!

[Gargamel]

I'm going for a long shot on my final plays for today. Out of the last 8 meetings between Estudiantes LP v Huracan 5 have ended 1-1. I'll play half a unit on that result and a full unit on the OVER on this one. Hopefully one of them will hit.

Estudiantes LP v Huracan RESULT 1:1 @ 7 - 0.5u LOSS
Estudiantes LP v Huracan OVER 2.5 @ 1.85 LOSS
Huracan to win @ 7 - 0.5u LOSS
Livebet: OVER 9.5 corners @ 1.65 WIN

Shocking end to the day, and also why I will never be a great gambler. I consider myself unlucky though with the over. They hit the bar twice and the post once, missed a penalty and a host of other chances.

22/2
3-3 +0.425 u

Total
12-9. +3.055 u

[Gargamel]

I might be messing up badly now but I like how Huracan look.
Huracan to win @ 7 - 0.5u

1-0 Estudiantes right there. If Huracan can equalise now I'm nicely set up. I'll take it if only the OVER hits anyway though, as I think I might be on thin ice with this one. Would mean -0.15u in total for this game but I'd feel I had given myself a good chance at a bigger win.

[Gargamel]

Oh well. New day today. Will have a big card today, approximately 10 plays.

[Gargamel]

Big one today. Adding some parlays down there, one that I want to thank spartangreen especially for.

Tuesday's card
Notts County @ 1.75 POSTPONED
Rochdale @ 1.53 LOSS
Norwich -1, -1.5 @ 1.925 PUSH / LOSS
Swindon -1, -1.5 @ 1.95 WIN
Colchester @ 1.72 POSTPONED
Bury @ 1.72 LOSS
Aldershot @ 2.1 LOSS
ManU, Benfica, Barca @ 2.56 LOSS
Norwich, Swindon @ 1.95 0.5u WIN
Scunthorpe v Ipswitch OVER 2.5, Hayes&Yeading @ 3.33 0.5u LOSS
Benfica to wind 2nd half @ 1.5 WIN

Let's for for a good day!

[Gargamel]

That 2nd half bet seems like money well spent. 3 goals inside 17 mins in the 2nd half. Benfica are brilliant.