[chargers4222]

I know nothing about this matchup other than Messi desperately needs a big win and a trophy on his mantle. I just saw a prop bet in which Lionel Messi to score a goal and Argentina to win is +125.

+125????

Are you kidding me? This sounds like free money to me, which is why I'm pretty sure it won't hit. Assuming Messi scores at least one goal, which I would think is as close to a sure thing as you'll get in this match, I would then presume that the U.S. somehow beats Argentina.

Honestly, I can't see why anyone with this +125 prop available would bet Argentina to advance instead of this. I think it smells bad. Just my two cents.

[Stackzilla]

it's probably because this game will end 1-0 or 2-0 not 4-0 or 5-0. US going to play 4-5-1 and will play for the draw and try to win in PKs but Argentina will eventually find a way to score whether it be Messi, Di Maria, Aguero, or Higuan too many options

[frugalgambler]

How is +125 a free money ? Messi is scoring in only about ~35% of his matches for Argentina; and USA is no pushover defensively. If you like reading into the lines, here is one for you Argentina -1 dropped from -110 to -140. What does that tell you, Einstein ?

[chargers4222]

It was free money to me and I know nothing about soccer. It'd be like seeing Steph Curry to score over 20 points and Warriors to win the game against the Suns in the regular season. I don't have those types of lines through my local so I didn't bet it, but that was confusingly easy to me.

[Hangoverblack]

I think that tackle on Lavezzi right before half changes the mindset for Argentina 2h.

-200 Argentina
Over 1.5 EV.

[frugalgambler]

It was free money to me and I know nothing about soccer. It'd be like seeing Steph Curry to score over 20 points and Warriors to win the game against the Suns in the regular season. I don't have those types of lines through my local so I didn't bet it, but that was confusingly easy to me.

You thread was titled "fair warning to anyone betting argentina", which implied that your cool line-reading skills somehow gave you info that USA would cover and possibly not lose. Now you are saying you have no clue about soccer. Maybe you should stick to posting about sh.t you know like, I dunno, Philip Rivers' jock straps ? Then again that applies to >50% of posts on SBR.

[chargers4222]

You thread was titled "fair warning to anyone betting argentina", which implied that your cool line-reading skills somehow gave you info that USA would cover and possibly not lose. Now you are saying you have no clue about soccer. Maybe you should stick to posting about sh.t you know like, I dunno, Philip Rivers' jock straps ? Then again that applies to >50% of posts on SBR.

Fair point, but the basis of my post was that the line looked fishy, not necessarily that I thought US would win.

[iloseagain]

How is +125 a free money ? Messi is scoring in only about ~35% of his matches for Argentina; and USA is no pushover defensively. If you like reading into the lines, here is one for you Argentina -1 dropped from -110 to -140. What does that tell you, Einstein ?

how does a line DROP from -110 to -140..........?