[Bostonknowledge]

I was thinking about setting up a Nations Cup based thread, and would like to gauge the interest level. I am a big follower of African football and could provide picks if people are interested. The competition starts today with Angola vs Mali.

[spartangreen]

I have some interest, looking at a couple on monday. GL.

[hedgejob]

What's your take on the first game?

[Phillth]

to be honest. not really

[Smogs]

i have a unit on Cameroon to win their group

[spartangreen]

What's your take on the first game?

I think it will be low scoring, either team could win 1-0 or it could be a 1-1 tie. no bet for me.

[Bostonknowledge]

Fair enough. African soccer isn't that difficult to read. The nations cup is always a high scoring tournament, as African offenses are far superior to the defenses. This is especially true in the early rounds.

For the first game this afternoon, the play is the over (2). Mali has arguably the best midfield/attack in the tournament. Keita is a star at Barcelona, Sissoko is a star at Juventus, Kanoute is a leading scorer in Spain for Sevilla, and Diarra was a rock in the Real Madrid midfield until the arrival of Lass and Alonso. They are coached by an offensive minded coach in Stephen Keshi, who qualified little Togo for the World Cup in 2006. However, their defense in trash , as is with most African defenses. Their goalkeeper is even worse!!!

Angola is the host nation, and as such, they will want to impress the home crowds and the international public. Home countries are always one of the leading scorers in the nations cup. It is just an undeniable fact that home field advantage in Africa is Huge. Bigger than in any other continental champinonship. So with the likes of Manucho (fmr Man united player), Angola will score at least one goal in this game. Also keep in mind the events surrounding the tournament. Mainly the shooting of the Togolese Players, and the negative light that this has brought on the Country. Knowing Africa, it will not be out of the question for the government to issue an ultimatuem to the team to win at all costs (or at least play entertaining football). Do not laugh at this theory, because African soccer, politics, and life work along these terms. This will cause the Angolans to chase the game, leading to a much more open game.

Final verdict- An open game between a highly skilled offense (Mali) and a motivated home team (Angola) will lead to plenty of goals. I've taken the over (2).

[ClydeFontaine]

I will be following it. The Togo shooting certainly takes a lot of the steam out of it but as they say "they show must go on".

[spartangreen]

Thats a good take, nice writeup.

[Yamidee]

Good idea Bostonknowledge
For today's game Angola : Mali, I will go with a small stake on Mali. It will be a hard and unpredictable game with a host Angola who wants to open a tounament with a win infront of their fans, and Mali which has a big plans on this tournament.

Angola has two injuriy problems with their strikers Stelvio Rosa and Flavio, for Mali is only questionable Seydou Keita (Fc Barcelona). The biggest problem for Mali is that all their top palyers are playing on the same position (midfield) Diarra, Sissoko, Keita . . They will play up front with Kanoute from FC Sevilla. Overall Mali is a better team for me, but playing against a host on opening game can allways be a bit tricky to predict...

[Smogs]

Yamidee - boston, hell of a write up both of you

From that i would lean Mali but i will watch instead and not bet it

[Jaug]

They are going to war in africa.

[Bostonknowledge]

watch the game here

http://iraqgoals.net/ch4.html

[hedgejob]

Edit: took O2 so worse case I push from here.

[Jimmy0607]

2 0 angola up so one more goal boys

[Bostonknowledge]

Congrats to anyone who decided to follow!!

[Jimmy0607]

[hedgejob]

Boston you nailed this one

[ClydeFontaine]

Holy crap. Mali comes back and scores three goals in the last 7 or so minutes and ties 4-4. Down 4-0 with 12 to go.

[aneurysm00]

What a way to start a tournament!!

[Jimmy0607]

Crazy stuff

[Yamidee]

Totally crazy game, from 4:0 to 4:4 in 16 minutes...amazing.

[Jaug]

I see two games today:

Algeria (-1) - Malawi OU 2.25

Ivory coast (-1.5) - Burkina faso OU 2.75

Would consider playing both dogs but that's just because I might be underestimating how serious these guys are taking the cup.

[ClydeFontaine]

Malawi seems to be the better of the two dogs. Still think Algeria gets the nod, like 1-0.

Ivory Coast far better side, just a matter of their motivation here.

Both faves seem obvious, so chances are one throws in a clinker and draws.

[SRBI]

Malawi strikes first...

[Smogs]

Algeria look poor

[SRBI]

Algeria is done. For those who did not wake up early today: Good for you!

[Karayilan9]

Algeria are prime fade material for the WC

[SRBI]

Algeria are prime fade material for the WC

At least they showed us that much today

[theplagy]

I think Ivory Coast will take this game seriously as they have a very high expectation to win this cup.
The talent is obviously there for the favorite, as both toure brothers, drogba and eboue will start.

I'm liking the elephants to strike early as I'm looking at -.75 ,+100 @ betpheonix.

Any thoughts?

[theplagy]

The line opened at -1.5 and rapidly spiked to -1.75 and have been holding steadily

[SRBI]

Just FYI: 5Dimes has put a max of $100 if you want to bet over 3 for Ivory Coast/Burkina match.

These pricks. I f*cking hate them. O3 is a lock.

[Jaug]

Think I will bet this one live, might go into it with a small bet on the under though. African cup of nations makes me think of nigeria and their defensive play in world cup.

[Jaug]

How sick was it that the Togo players were shot btw? Buss-driver died and one player hospitalized I think.

[SRBI]

Bookmaker has o3 at -140.