[dreamlanding]

Let's take a look to see if there are any value in these road dogs:

5/9 BAYERN v. Augsberg (+563... draw +324)
5/9 BARCELONA v. Sociedad (+4144... draw +1875)
5/9 REAL MADRID v. Valencia (+664... draw +433)
5/9 JUVENTUS v. Cagliari (+577... draw +321)

Freak results tend to happen @ the end of the season anyway, and all four of these teams are huge weekend home favorites sandwiched between much more important and high-pressure midweek games.

- I find it hard to see Bayern losing a fourth consecutive match.
- Barcelona is so scorching hot right now that it'd be hard to back them to slip up, but at those odds...
- Valencia picked up a league draw in Madrid last season... best opponent of the four by far.
- Juventus has won the league and Cagliari need points desperately...

At a cursory glance, Valencia and Cagliari might be worth some consideration. What do you think?

Tomorrow when I have more time I'm going to try to track back the last few years of similar data to see how semifinalists have been doing in those in-between league fixtures.

[unitedlad]

Decent analysis and always an angle I tend to aim for. Obviously depends on the line the books are offering and the opponent.

I'll be on the AH for Valencia and Cagliari for sure. I actually think Sociedad are a good team to face Barca at the minute. Moyes is doing a good job there and has got the teams' work rate up. They will most likely still get beat but Moyes doesn't tend to be a manager to really go for a game when getting beat. He will continue with attempting to contain Barca even when 2 down. Sociedad +3.25 is a great line in my opinion.

Will lay off the Bayern game. The team could react one of two ways. totally unpredictable. Pep is a mad man.

[O]

Definitely interesting but I think it is hard to go against any of them considering the caliber of the teams. Cagliari is probably the best option. I don't see RM or Barca sitting back to jeopardize the league title and considering their talent, they can rotate players after a strong first half. CR7 will play all 90 and do the same mid-week. At the end of the day, there is a reason this guys are world class athletes.

[whareouttogetme]

I'll just leave this here... doesn't really mean that much since you have to take form into account, but still.. something to consider

[dreamlanding]

So I went back three years just to see how CL semifinalists have fared in their weekend fixtures sandwiched between the two semifinal midweek games...

9W - 2D - 1L

The two draws are Barcelona @ Bilbao in 2013 and Chelsea @ Arsenal in 2012 (both tough opponents away)... and the one loss is Barcelona losing to Real Madrid (who was another CL semifinalist) in 2012.

Unfortunately doesn't really look like any kind of recent trend. Still keeping an eye on Cagliari, though.

[unitedlad]

The thing is most of the semi-finalists in the CL will be heavy favourites in their domestic league game - so they don't necessarily have to drop points in order to win the spread. They just need to not run riot.

[unitedlad]

Hopping on Valencia +1.5 @ 1.9

Love this bet. Benzema probably still out. Real just aren't the same outfit with Hernandez up front who I expect to start and play the full 90. Maybe Benzema gets a run out but will probably be kept to be fully unleashed against Juve next week.

Also put a bit on the draw.

Will look at BTTS also.

[Mase of Base]

Wouldn't bother with Barca and Real, their leagues are to average for them to lose especially with how close they are.

Fading Juve and Bayern looks real good though. Although Bayern played all their defensive players in the CL might be a squad for goals in that one.

[whareouttogetme]

So much for resting Neuer

[dreamlanding]

The one game everyone pretty much agrees is a stay-away and Augsburg wins it.

[Stokes36]

I faded Juve loss/draw...I just thought Bayern would be pissed with the way they got punished against Barca that they would come for blood. Guess not! lol

[larryp0405]

Seems like Real Madrid is going down too

So bayern loses , juventus draws, barcelona wins 2-0 , and real madrid currently down 2-0

[unitedlad]

The one game everyone pretty much agrees is a stay-away and Augsburg wins it.

Calm...They all are going to cash

[larryp0405]

who missed the penalty kick? smh

[whareouttogetme]

who missed the penalty kick? smh

Ronaldo of course

[unitedlad]

Hopping on Valencia +1.5 @ 1.9

Love this bet. Benzema probably still out. Real just aren't the same outfit with Hernandez up front who I expect to start and play the full 90. Maybe Benzema gets a run out but will probably be kept to be fully unleashed against Juve next week.

Also put a bit on the draw.

Will look at BTTS also.

[dreamlanding]

Excellent stuff, unitedlad. Only plays I made were Cagliari +1 and draw.

Wish i had been more aggressive because there was a boatload of cash to be made here. My research into the past few years worked against me.

[Semper Fidelis]

Hopping on Valencia +1.5 @ 1.9

Love this bet. Benzema probably still out. Real just aren't the same outfit with Hernandez up front who I expect to start and play the full 90. Maybe Benzema gets a run out but will probably be kept to be fully unleashed against Juve next week.

Also put a bit on the draw.

Will look at BTTS also.

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Thank you for helping build my bankroll even more today, my friend! Absolutely love your insight and analysis with this sport; it's very obvious you know and follow soccer pretty well!

The next logical question (and one I'm sure others are wondering and want to ask): where is your thread? If you have the time, you should definitely start your own thread to list your picks. I know you'd have many followers all eager to discuss upcoming matches. No pressure or anything - we all have lives outside of this forum and betting, and most of us don't have the time to maintain a thread of plays. But you clearly always have much to contribute, and listing your plays/leans in a thread that everyone can check and have meaningful intellectual discussions would be very beneficial to this forum. Hell I'm pretty sure you could even find someone to keep record for you (something I had to do many times when I created threads in the past) if you don't have time for that.

But honestly it doesn't really matter if you keep a record or not - the bottom line is we would all love to see more contribution/picks/discussions from you, good sir!

Thanks again for all you bring to the forum here, and BOL on the rest of your wagers this weekend buddy!

[unitedlad]

Thank you for helping build my bankroll even more today, my friend! Absolutely love your insight and analysis with this sport; it's very obvious you know and follow soccer pretty well!

The next logical question (and one I'm sure others are wondering and want to ask): where is your thread? If you have the time, you should definitely start your own thread to list your picks. I know you'd have many followers all eager to discuss upcoming matches. No pressure or anything - we all have lives outside of this forum and betting, and most of us don't have the time to maintain a thread of plays. But you clearly always have much to contribute, and listing your plays/leans in a thread that everyone can check and have meaningful intellectual discussions would be very beneficial to this forum. Hell I'm pretty sure you could even find someone to keep record for you (something I had to do many times when I created threads in the past) if you don't have time for that.

But honestly it doesn't really matter if you keep a record or not - the bottom line is we would all love to see more contribution/picks/discussions from you, good sir!

Thanks again for all you bring to the forum here, and BOL on the rest of your wagers this weekend buddy!

Thanks for the kind words bud. Always nice to know that some of my thoughts are appreciated.

Yeah, had a thread going a while back but found it difficult finding the time to do write-up analysis and post picks.

Find popping in and out of existing threads to share thoughts suits me a bit better than keeping tracking picks in my own thread - but may get it up and running again next season at some stage.

Only got one bet on the early EPL game - Richard Dunne to be shown a card @3.6.

I'm liking BTTS in the late game between Chelsea and Liverpool. Initially I thought Liverpool may get a result but starting to kind of change my predication. Will probably start up a thread about it and post more thoughts as I can't see an open thread at the moment for weekend football.

[LFC1892]

This is no play for me. Mou will outsmart our sheep Rodgers in 9 out of 10 games. Even with reserves. Both teams will be happy with a draw I think.

[unitedlad]

I get the feeling that Mourinho will let his boys go out and play today. Could be an open game