[unitedlad]

This 1st leg should be a close affair. Not throwing a large unit size on any bet but will definitely dabble in some of the more obscure markets as there are a few things I fancy in this match.


First bet is Juventus to have over 46% possession. Real Madrid's dominance in possession in the previous round is dictating this number a bit too much in my opinion. Atletico Madrid knew the best way for them to defeat Real Madrid was to take a defensive and counter approach which includes allowing them to pass the ball around in front of the 2 banks of 4. Juventus are a complete opposite outfit. They enjoy controlling possesion just as much as tonight visitor's, and I expect them to carry on with this approach in their first leg home game tonight. Even with Pogba out, they have 2 world class midfielders in Vidal and the ever-green Pirlo who are more than capable of maintaining possession through accurate passing - however I expect both teams to enjoy their fair share of the ball tonight, with neither set of players taking high pressing approaches. I am predicting a possession of around 50-50.


Second bet for the match can be explained with much of the reasoning for my possession prediction. I'm going for under 26.5 fouls. As stated before, I think both teams will be happy for their opponents to keep hold of the ball as long as the game stays scoreless - which I think it will for a good portion. I can't see either team looking to press with much intensity - with the key focus of maintaining their shape in midfield and defence. This could see minutes going by without tackles and I think this will bring us under our number of 26.5.


Third bet is draw at half time, and also a bit on half time scoreline of 0-0. I see both teams beginning the tie in the aim to not make mistakes, so can't see there being many clear cut chances within the first half, or at least for a good portion of it.


My main punt for the night is Roberto Pereyra to be shown a card at odds of 4/1. I think the odds here are too good to pass up. The Argentinian has a similar playing style to his South-American midfield partner, Arturo Vidal - a bit of a gung-ho box to box approach. Can see him making being a bit too eager to impress and keeping his foot in in a few challenges.


All bets:
3u Juve o46% possesion @1.82
1u u26.5 fouls @1.90
1u Draw HT @2.05
1u Draw 0-0 @2.62
1u Draw HT/FT @4.8
1u Roberto Pereyra to be shown a card @5.00

BOL all

[unitedlad]

Also, if anyone is interested, Bet365 are doing a free in-play bet of up to $50 when a pre-match bet is placed on the match tonight.

So I've used this to place one unit bet of 0-0 Draw at half time. I will also most likely use my inplay bet on Draw at FT which is currently 3.20 at bet365. So 1u to win 2.4u.

[plekz]

i like btts, real's defense isn't that great (it is on paper but how it functions leaves some to be desired) most teams nab atleast one goal against madrid wether it's home or away. even without pogba juventus has a dangerous attacking front.

[unitedlad]

i like btts, real's defense isn't that great (it is on paper but how it functions leaves some to be desired) most teams nab atleast one goal against madrid wether it's home or away. even without pogba juventus has a dangerous attacking front.

They've only conceded in 1 out of their previous 8 Champions League games.

Not sure where you're getting that opinion from. As far as this season goes - Real Madrid's defence has been pretty solid in Europe - keeping clean sheets in 3 out of 4 of their knock-out games so far this year. Varane has played a huge part in making their defence more stable.

La Liga is a different story as Real tend to attack right from the off, with a bit of a gung-ho style - which leads to conceding goals, of course - but it also leads to scoring a hell of a lot as well.

[plekz]

They've only conceded in 1 out of their previous 8 Champions League games.

Not sure where you're getting that opinion from. As far as this season goes - Real Madrid's defence has been pretty solid in Europe - keeping clean sheets in 3 out of 4 of their knock-out games so far this year. Varane has played a huge part in making their defence more stable.

they've faced two quality sides, atleti and schalke. funny you mention they've only conceded in 1, considering they let in 4 that game. they need every point they can get domesticly and yet they drop goals on a regular basis (two this weekend against sevilla, which is by far the most important away game they have left to play, and both goals were results of really sloppy coverage)

i also don't think allegri is likely to fall into the same trap cholo did with risking it taking a draw to the return leg.

1 - 1 , 1 - 2

[unitedlad]

they've faced two quality sides, atleti and schalke. funny you mention they've only conceded in 1, considering they let in 4 that game. they need every point they can get domesticly and yet they drop goals on a regular basis (two this weekend against sevilla, which is by far the most important away game they have left to play, and both goals were results of really sloppy coverage)

i also don't think allegri is likely to fall into the same trap cholo did with risking it taking a draw to the return leg.

1 - 1 , 1 - 2

As I added into my initial reply - La Liga is a totally differenty story to UCL. Real Madrid are comfortably superior to the majority of the teams in the La Liga, and the open style of play benefits their fast attackers as well as their fast defenders, who are in a lot of cases, faster than the opponents' attackers.

They will look to play a more conseravitive approach tonight, like they have done throughout the whole tournament.

Yes the Schalke game is one where their defenders, along with the whole team, got complacent - I was actually on Schalke in that game and expected them to get a result. I think Real benefited from that 2nd leg defeat, and has taught them not to underestimate any opponent.

[plekz]

sevilla isn't one of those teams though, so i don't buy the ''complacent'' or that they thought they were superior considering how much they had to work to get that w.

i also don't think they played very ''conservative'' in neither of the games with atleti, and they definetly didn't do it in the first knockout game with schalke either.

[caveira]

Real Madrid ah0 2.12 is the best bet for this match.

[unitedlad]

sevilla isn't one of those teams though, so i don't buy the ''complacent'' or that they thought they were superior considering how much they had to work to get that w.

i also don't think they played very ''conservative'' in neither of the games with atleti, and they definetly didn't do it in the first knockout game with schalke either.

Sevilla are a good team. But Real Madrid are on another level. If Sevilla want to go into a game against Real Madrid and try to attack them then Real will give them a taste of their own medicine and will most likely beat any team in the world (probably everyone apart from Barca) who takes that approach against them due to the amount of talent they have in their favour.

Again, they did not concede in any of those games. I'm beginning to get the feeling you have a strong dislike for Real Madrid.

[plekz]

it's kinda pointless trying to carry on a discussion with some who decides to act like a p14 and play the ''oh but then you must not like x'' card.

no they didn't concede but they sure as hell didn't play a ''conservative'' style of football in any of the games. and i'd argue that juventus has a more potent attack all in all then atleti who rely on griezmann or mandzukic, or schalke.

and i stopped ''flagwaving'' and thinking i was apart of a team just because i bought there merch when i was in my teens, so i do not have a ''favorite'' team nor do i have teams i hate, i'm in this for money and make no bias either way since that is likely to cost me money.

[true blue 26]

Nice analysis unitedlad, too bad bet365 doesn't let u bet on fouls and possession. Was trying to figure for which bets I should use the promo. Do you have anything else you might fancy, maybe something crazy with bigger odds for the free bet? 1-1 exact result or something like that?

[unitedlad]

it's kinda pointless trying to carry on a discussion with some who decides to act like a p14 and play the ''oh but then you must not like x'' card.

no they didn't concede but they sure as hell didn't play a ''conservative'' style of football in any of the games. and i'd argue that juventus has a more potent attack all in all then atleti who rely on griezmann or mandzukic, or schalke.

and i stopped ''flagwaving'' and thinking i was apart of a team just because i bought there merch when i was in my teens, so i do not have a ''favorite'' team nor do i have teams i hate, i'm in this for money and make no bias either way since that is likely to cost me money.

I have no idea what a 'p14' is but I was only calling it as I saw it - someone who is making arguments with nothing to back it up. If you look at the average passing positions against both Atletico, you will see that they are positioned deeper on the pitch than you'd see in any given La Liga game.

We are going no where with this debate so let's just call it at that and hope all of our bets come up, however if you are on both teams to score, then I hope your bets fail miserably

[unitedlad]

Nice analysis unitedlad, too bad bet365 doesn't let u bet on fouls and possession. Was trying to figure for which bets I should use the promo. Do you have anything else you might fancy, maybe something crazy with bigger odds for the free bet? 1-1 exact result or something like that?

I don't tend to do crazy long shot bets. I think 3.2 for the draw is a good a shout as any.

If I was going for a correct score bet then I'd have to go for 0-0, better yet 'No Goalscorer' under the goalscorer market - as in the latter case, own goals don't count.

[true blue 26]

So you don't like Ronaldo to score at least one

[unitedlad]

So you don't like Ronaldo to score at least one

If the game goes the way I suspect it to, then I can't see Ronaldo getting many chances. His best way of scoring would most likely be from set pieces or crosses due to his giant leap.

If you are going for Ronaldo to score - I would be more inclined to try the first Goalscorer markets as I don't see there being many goals.

[JayLA]

I dont have access to these sexy bets so as square as it is, RM straight up for me.

[unitedlad]

Got the fouls and possession bets at marathonbet if anyone is interested in checking them out.

Awesome online book with some nice markets.

I've just thrown something on Ronaldo to score with a header @ 9/1. Why not?

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

with ya on draw at halftime if this game gets lively at all [juve won't want it to], it's in the 2nd half

[whareouttogetme]

Pereyra is on the bench

[unitedlad]

Cards are reset this round - so I can see a couple of the more 'nastier' players getting punished for the harsher challenges. I don't think the ref will hold back as he doesn't have to think about potential suspensions (I'm sure there is always a part of the ref's mind that brings this into equation in CL semi finals)

Pereyra not starting, so going with my initial instinct with Vidal. Plus a couple more:

Players to be shown a card:
Vidal @3.1
Marchisio @3.75
Ramos (obviously) @2.38

[plekz]

btts, lookin good 10 minutes in.

[plekz]

btts looking cashed 26 minutes in.

[unitedlad]

As did my 9/1 long shot with Ronaldo to score a header which covers all stakes for tonight. Will be up huge if we can get to half time with the draw.

I have to hold my hands up though. This game started at a far faster pace than I expected. Real came into the game to pay conservative but Juve were having non of it. Doing a great job of pressing from the midfield but this is liable to leave big holes for James Jaco Ronaldo and Bale to exploit.

If Juve are going to stand a chance here then they need to keep the ball a big more and stop trying to counter every opportunity.

[unitedlad]

Also put 2u on Real to win or draw 10 mins after conceding. It was clear than Real were finding their feet in the game and starting to boss.

[plekz]

fun game atleast, when you don't have to care anymore after less then 30 minutes. going huge on barca to score o1.5 tomorrow against bayern.

at this rate for the return leg bayern will be playing u18 players, considering rode is out for the season now aswell, and ribery won't be fit in time, lewandowski playing with a concussion, a fractured jaw and a broken nose is one tackle away from being out the rest of the season aswell.

same goes for schweinsteiger who's playing with knocks.

[plekz]

think it's going to be hell for poor rafinha to try and control his flank tomorrow considering he'll have neymar running towards him.

[unitedlad]

fun game atleast, when you don't have to care anymore after less then 30 minutes. going huge on barca to score o1.5 tomorrow against bayern.

at this rate for the return leg bayern will be playing u18 players, considering rode is out for the season now aswell, and ribery won't be fit in time, lewandowski playing with a concussion, a fractured jaw and a broken nose is one tackle away from being out the rest of the season aswell.

same goes for schweinsteiger who's playing with knocks.

Yeah things aren't looking great for Bayern at the moment for sure. The only thing they have going for them against Barca is Pep's brain and his experience coaching the opposition.

I've 2 units on Barca ml tomorrow night. Thankfully got it at evens - before the Robben injury.

I really thing Robben being out changes the whole tie. He's that important of a player. He is the key for the whole Bayern team.

I think it will either go one way or the other. I think Bayern will frustrate the hell out of Barca playing defensively and constant kicking at Messi, and may even grab a victory at Nou Camp. Or the more likely scenario of Barca winning by about 3 goals....

[plekz]

i just don't see how a backline consisting of weiser , boateng , benatia & rafinha are going to stop what is three people who could be argued to make a top 5 list of the best attackers in the world. not in the form all three is in aswell.

müller isn't 100% either which is why he was left at home when they travelled to leverkusen during the weekend.

[unitedlad]

I have no doubt Muller will be fit. Bayern were always going to half ass that Leverkusen game in my opinion having just won the league and with the biggest game of their season only days after.

Muller has to be fit for Bayern to stand a chance. He is their Suarez - not quite the same type of player but has the same impact.

Really can't wait for that match. Barca are firing on all cyclinders. Once Suarez settled and that front 3 clicked it was always going to be mayhem for defences.

But....Pep will have a plan. Barca have yet to face a team like Bayern this season - a team filled with such talent and brains. They are beat up but I still wouldn't put it past them getting a result tomorrow.

I may wait until inplay to place a big wager on this game.

As I said - I think it goes one of 2 ways - and I think the first 5 minutes will give me all I need to know. I just hope there isn't a goal in those 5 minutes....unless it's for Barca.

[plekz]

tbh, only thing pep can do really is to try and come up with a plan to lower the numbers, and then hope to make it up at home, like they did porto. with the amount of injuries they have there really isn't that much talent left, gotze's form is shocking, weiser is to inexperienced, schweini is old and not at all what he used to be.

and i mean in terms of bench? dante,martinez and then it's people from the b-team. that's how badly bogged down by injuries they are.

wasn't so much suarez settling, as it was martinez realizing it was lunacy trying to play him out on the right, rodgers did that a few times in liverpool and suarez hated it there, soon as they moved him into the middle where he should be he instantly started producing on a regular basis. and messi is good enough to play pretty much anywhere anyways.

huey duey and louie are gonna run rampant tomorrow, book it!

[Snowball]

horrid defensive error by Madrid cost them the draw.
the kicker was off angle and that goal could have been saved
but the defender tripped him for penalty shot.

[unitedlad]

Fouls bet wasn't even close. The early goal killed that. Like I said, I misread the start of this game.

That possession by shouldn't have even been close. Juventus controlled that midfield all game but they had the game plan of constant counter attacking. Weird. I suppose it worked. But I still think Real go through.

[unitedlad]

horrid defensive error by Madrid cost them the draw.
the kicker was off angle and that goal could have been saved
but the defender tripped him for penalty shot.

Yeah. Real aren't great at reacting to going a goal down in games. They just lose all shape and go all out attack - relying on their speedy defense to bail them out against counters. Didn't work tonight. Tevez was very good. As was morata. That was moratas best game in a huge shirt as far as I'm concerned.

Carvajl and Varane were very unimpressive. Surprising as I consider them 2 of the best in the world in their positions

[plekz]

think the return leg could end up being very close, i'll play btts then again if i get good odds.

[unitedlad]

Btts - absolutely for the 2nd leg. Possibly the biggest bet of the year. Juve will look to play exactly the same way. Defend like warriors and counter with pace - yet not pushing too many players forward.

I can actually see Juve winning. Tevez and Morata were brilliant on the counter attack. Chielini is an absolute warrior.

However I expect Varane to have a far better 2nd leg.