[bernardoGui]

Commodity Fetishism

Mistaking someone's labor
for something you'd want to buy..

---

IN KEEPING WITH THE LOGIC OF YESTERDAY'S THREAD, TODAY'S SCANDINAVIAN SOCCER SLATES HAVE DEVELOPED IN A VERY INTERESTING WAY..

WITH THE FOLLOWING SELECTION OF RESULTS AND STATS, THE PATIENT BETTOR WILL USE THIS INFORMATION TO TRY AND MAKE A FEW GOOD 'EUROPA LEAGUE-PICKS' FOR THE COMING THURSDAY.

---

SUNDAY, 27th of July 2014


3 COUNTRIES, 5 MATCHES AND 6 TEAMS WHO ARE ALL CONTESTING IN THE EUROPA LEAGUE QUALIFIERS ON THURSDAY. THOSE TEAMS ARE UNDERLINED.



SWEDEN


1. Åtvidaberg @ Brommapojkarna - final result: 2-2 / (1-2)

- 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: Brommapojkarna @ HOME vs. Torino (Italy)

BROMMAPOJKARNA :

5 latest matches - D-W-L-D-D / Goal difference: 11 - 8 .

TORINO :

2 latest matches (FRIENDLIES; 20/7 & 24/7) - W-L / Goal difference: 5 - 1 .

---

2. IFK Göteborg @ Mjällby - final result: 0-3 / (0-1)

- 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: IFK Göteborg @ HOME vs. Rio Ave (Portugal)

IFK GÖTEBORG :

5 latest matches -D-W-W-L-L / Goal difference: 8 - 7 .

RIO AVE :

4 latest matches - (FRIENDLIES; 5/7, 9/7, 19/7, 24/7) - W-L-W-L / Goal difference: 3 -3 .

---

3. Norrköping @ Elfsborg - final result: 0-3 / (0-1)

- 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: Elfsborg @ HOME vs. Hafnarfjordur (Iceland)

ELFSBORG :

5 latest matches - D-L-L-W-W / Goal difference: 9 (8) - 7 .

HAFNARFJORDUR :

5 latest matches - D-D-W-W-W / Goal difference: 11 - 5 .

---

---

NORWAY


4. Rosenborg @ Molde - final result: 1-3 / (0-1)

---

ROSENBORG - 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: AWAY vs. Karabukspor (Turkey)

KARABUKSPOR :

5 latest matches - (21/4-18/5) - D-W-D-L-W / Goal difference: 6 - 7 .


ROSENBORG :

5 latest matches - D-L-W-W-L / Goal difference: 8 - 8 .

---

MOLDE - 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: AWAY vs. Zorya (Ukraine)


ZOROYA :

5 latest matches - W-L-W-W-L / Goal difference: 9 - 6 .

MOLDE :

5 latest matches -W-W-W-D-W / Goal difference: 12 - 4 .

---

---

DENMARK


5. SønderjyskE @ Esbjerg FB - final result: 1-1 / (0-0)


- 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: Esbjerg FB AWAY vs. Ruch (Poland)


RUCH :

5 latest matches - D-W-L-D-L / Goal difference: 4 - 6 .

ESBJERG FB :

5 latest matches - L-D-L-W-D / Goal difference: 4 - 5 .

---

---

FOR MOST OF THE SCANDINAVIAN CLUBS PARTICIPATING IN THE EUROPEAN TOURNAMENTS, IT ALMOST ALWAYS SEEM LIKE TOO HIGH A MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB. THUS, IN MOST CASES, IT BECOMES AN ANNUAL HUMILIATION FOR THE CLUBS, AS WELL AS FOR THE DIFFERENT NATIONS THEY ARE REPRESENTING.

NORWEGIAN CLUB STRÖMGODSET'S EXIT FROM EUROPA LEAGUE'S 2nd QUALIFYING ROUND THIS WEEK, IS JUST ANOTHER EXAMPLE FROM THIS YEARS SCANDINAVIAN CAMPAIGN.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE'S ALMOST ALWAYS ONE OR TWO SCANDINAVIAN CLUBS WHO MANAGE TO QUALIFY FOR THE GROUP STAGE OF ONE OR BOTH TOURNAMENTS. THIS SEASON, EUROPA LEAGUE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE SPOT FOR THE CLUBS WHO ARE STILL IN THE QUALIFYING CONTESTS.

THERE'S ONLY 4 SCANDINAVIAN CLUBS LEFT IN THE QUALIFYING ROUNDS FOR CHAMPIONS LEAGUE THIS SEASON - 2 DANISH (FC COPENHAGEN & AAB), 1 SWEDISH (MALMÖ FF) AND 1 FINNISH (HJK). I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF EVEN ONE OF THESE MAKES IT TO THE GROUP STAGE. I ALSO HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THEM EVEN BEING ABLE TO SURPASS THEIR 3rd QUALIFYING ROUND OPPONENTS.

KEEP IN MIND, THAT THIS WOULD ONLY QUALIFY THE CLUB FOR ONE MORE/LAST 'PLAY OFF' ROUND, WHERE THEY RISK TO BE PAIRED WITH CLUBS SUCH AS FC PORTO, ARSENAL, LEVERKUSEN, NAPOLI AND ATHLETIC BILBAO. THE DRAWS FOR THESE PLAY OFF MATCHES WILL TAKE PLACE ON AUGUST THE 8TH.

AS FOR THE SIX EUROPA LEAGUE MATCHES I ALREADY MENTIONED, I WILL SELECT TWO OR THREE FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS. FOR NOW: NO PICKS AS OF YET..

I WISH YOU ALL A PEACEFUL EVENING !

[tttl]

very good information

[bernardoGui]

Here's two more very interesting results from yesterday's Scandinavian slates, regarding the up coming UEFA Qualifiers on Thursday the 31st:


Monday 28th of July 2014:


DENMARK

1. Silkeborg @ Brøndby IF - final result: 0 - 2 / (0 -0).

[31st of July] 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: Brøndby IF AWAY vs. Club Brügge (Belgium)


BRØNDBY IF

5 latest matches: W-D-W-L-W / Goal difference: 7- 5 .



CLUB BRÜGGE

5 latest matches: W-D-D-D-W / Goal difference: 6 -3 .

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SWEDEN

2. Falkenbergs @ AIK Stockholm - final result: 0 - 3 / (0-1).

[31st of July] 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: AIK Stockholm AWAY vs. FC Astana (Kazakhstan)


AIK STOCKHOLM

5 latest matches: W-L-L-W-W / Goal difference: 9 - 5 .


FC ASTANA

5 latest matches: W-D-W-L-W / Goal difference: 9 - 2 .

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Both Brøndby IF and AIK Stockholm will be starting their 3rd round qualifiers with away games on Thursday. Along with Danish club Esbjerg FB, who's on a short trip to Poland, they will be the three teams in focus for now.


[31st of July] 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: Esbjerg FB AWAY vs. Ruch (Poland)

RUCH

5 latest matches - D-W-L-D-L / Goal difference: 4 - 6 .

ESBJERG FB

5 latest matches - L-D-L-W-D / Goal difference: 4 - 5 .



F . O . C . U . S .


[31st of July]3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: AIK Stockholm AWAY vs. FC Astana (Kazakhstan)

[31st of July] 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: Brøndby IF AWAY vs. Club Brügge (Belgium)

[31st of July] 3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg: Esbjerg FB AWAY vs. Ruch (Poland)

[bernardoGui]

- 31st of July -


EUROPA LEAGUE qualifiers, 3rd round - 1st leg:


# 1

Esbjerg FB (DK) @ Ruch Chorzów (PL)

Esbjerg FB are traveling to Poland without Left Back Jonas Knudsen, who was injured (again!) in Sunday's match. They are also without their Captain and midfield anchor HH Andreasen, who's been injured since the 26th of June (latest 5 matches).

Andreasen is Esbjerg's MVP and when watching/analyzing their two first matches of this year's Superliga season, as well as the two 2nd round EL qualifiers they played this month, it is obvious that Esbjerg, to some extend, are missing their Captain.

When fit, he brings a defensive balance to their midfield, ensuring that Esbjerg's offensive players are 'free' to invest their focus fully on offensive tactics (Esbjerg won three of the last five matches with Andreasen participating). When he is injured, the whole team is clearly set up for a very strict and disciplined defensive game and the few goals they've scored, have either been from a set piece or following a swift counter strike. Still, they've had a hard time keeping their defensive balance.

- Esbjerg FB have scored 4 goals and conceded 5, in the latest 5 matches.

- 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. They won 4 of their latest 10 matches

- Their four latest matches stayed 'under 2.5 goals' and two of these stayed 'under 1.5 goals'.


Looking at Ruch Chorzów's record from their five latest matches, it appears very similar to Esbjerg's:


- Ruch C. have scored 4 goals and conceded 6.

- 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. (They won 1 of their latest 10 matches).

- Three of their last five matches stayed 'under 2.5 goals' and two of these ended without a single goal being scored.

- They lost two of their latest three and the third match ended a draw (0-0!).


I expect a tight game with two teams, preoccupied with the defensive strategies that are so important under these two-leg circumstances. Picking the 'Under 2.5 goals' seems obvious and at the moment the line is @ -130. For the risk willing, the line for 'Under 0.5 goals' is @ +640. I'm considering a small bet on the 'Under 1.5' line @ +198.

In my opinion, Esbjerg should be the better of the two teams in question - even without their Captain. Most of the players had lots of UEFA experience last season, when Esbjerg made a decent run into the Europa League group stage and even further on to face Fiorientina in the knockout rounds. They lost 3-1 @ home and made it a 1-1 draw in Florence.

Esbjerg FB ranks as # 118 on the immediate UEFA chart with a coefficient of 13.44. Ruch Charzów ranks as # 211 with a 6.55 coefficient.

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/index.html

Though I'm reluctant to go all the way and pick the Esbjerg (ML) @+175, I'm leaning very heavily towards the Esbjerg 'DNB' @ +110.


GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK !

[bernardoGui]

- 31st of July -


EUROPA LEAGUE qualifiers, 3rd round - 1st leg:

# 2

Brøndby IF (DK) @ Club Brügge (BE)

When looking at the immediate UEFA Team Ranking ( http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/ ) it seems quite obvious why Club Brügge are considered as 'home favorites' tomorrow night. Although Club Brügge have dropped from #63 to #77 in the UEFA Rankings since the season of 12/13 - from a 36.88 coeff. to an immediate 21.76 coefficient - they are still comfortably ahead of Brøndby IF in this ranking system. Brøndby holds the 202nd spot on the ranking chart and with a humble 6.94 coefficient, they seem like the perfect opponent for Club Brügge in a match such as this.


IMMEDIATE FORM

Brøndby IF

- Scored 7 goals and conceded 5 in their latest 5 matches. 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.

- Won 5 of their latest 10 matches - lost 1. This was the season premiere @ FCM. 3-1 loss. FCM finished as #3 of 12 in last season's Superliga and held the #1 spot almost throughout.


Club Brügge

- Scored 6 goals and conceded 3 in their latest 5 matches. 2 wins and 3 draws.

- Won 6 of their latest 10 matches and made draws in the rest. Undefeated in 10 matches.



DIFFERENCES

Brøndby lost their season premiere away by 2 goals (3-1). Club Brügge won their season premiere away by 2 goals (2-0).

In all fairness, Brøndby faced a much more competent opponent in their season premiere than Brügge, who visited Waasland-Beveren (finished #14 of 16 in last season's Jupiler League, scoring 28 goals in 30 matches).

Brøndby's premiere took place one week before Brügge's and in the second Superliga round, Brøndby won 2-0 @ home. Ok - they faced up comers from Silkeborg IF, but Brøndby kept a clean sheet and scored two goals facing a team, who kept FC Copenhagen from scoring the week before. In this perspective, Brøndby have played two competitive games with a goaldiff. of 3-3 compared to Club Brügge's single competitive match. On the 18th of July, Club Brügge took on Bordeaux (UEFA ranking:#74) in a friendly @ home, which ended 0-0.

4 of the latest 10 Club Brügge matches went 'Over 2.5'. 3 of these were friendlies vs. far inferior teams over one month ago.

Within the latest month, they've played 6 matches - 5 of these stayed 'Under 2.5'.

3 of the latest 5 Brøndby matches stayed 'Under 2.5'.


Again, I think the 'Under 2.5 goals' seems obvious here, as both teams should be able to balance their defense and play a somewhat controlled match. Not a lot of obvious goalscorers on any of the teams and I would be surprised if the starting formations will reveal lots of 'purely' offensive players.. At the moment, the 'Under 2.5' -line lies @round -125.

About the Club Brügge ML (at the moment @ -151). Considering these notes, I think this line is too expensive. Therefore, I'm also leaning towards a small play on Brøndby (DNB) @ +225, as I simply don't see Brügge as the considerable favourite. They might even be mentally challenged by this 'fact' because they know they are up against a good quality squad. Brøndby, on the other hand, are able to focus on delivering a solid defensive performance, as well as creating the 5 chances they need to score 1 goal!



GOOD NIGHT & GOOD LUCK!

[bernardoGui]

- 31st of July -


EUROPA LEAGUE qualifiers, 3rd round - 1st leg:

# 3

AIK Stockholm @ FC Astana

Unfortunately, I never got around to the analysis and write-up for the AIK Stockholm @ FC Astana match. By looking at the goal scoring record of both teams, I originally had it booked as a probable 'Over 2.5' pick @ +136 as well as a 'BTTS' @ EV money.

It ended 1-1 in Kazakhstan and as such, it would have been a decent start to this Thursday's UEFA betting festivities.

Anyways, I now await the two games with Danish clubs participating and I remind You all of the suggested picks posted in the two posts above.


MEANWHILE IN GOTHENBURG

# 4

3rd round qualifier for EL, 1st leg:

IFK Göteborg @ HOME vs. Rio Ave (Portugal)


IFK GÖTEBORG

5 latest matches: D-W-W-L-L / Goal difference: 8 - 7 .


RIO AVE

4 latest matches: (FRIENDLIES; 5/7, 9/7, 19/7, 24/7) - W-L-W-L / Goal difference: 3 -3 .



IFK Göteborg haven't scored in two straight matches and tonight they face an opponent, which isn't in the particular habit of conceding goals either (3 in 4 matches).

There's a lot of pressure on this Swedish side tonight. To score goals and to win! They know that they will have to deliver and I think it will be a patient, defensive match with every player (not least the Portuguese!) preoccupied with defensive duties.

The following will be small bets:

1. 1st half - 'DRAW' @ -105.

2. 1st half - 'Under 0.5 goals' @ +137.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

So much for the Katharsis of the Gothenburg defense!

-1 unit total on IFK Göteborg @ HOME vs. Rio Ave, 1st half plays.

[Weekend deficit: -0.8 u.]

Record so far: 4 - 7 ( -1.8 u. )


Calculating the Esbjerg plays..

[bernardoGui]

Esbjerg FB (DK) @ Ruch Chorzów (PL) [ +5.1 u.]


3 hitters and 1 PUSH (Esbjerg - DNB)


1. Under 0.5 goal total @ +640 x 0.25 u. (+1.6 u.)

2. Under 1.5 goals total @ +198 x 1.1 u. (+2.2 u.)

3. Under 2.5 goals total @ -130 x 2.9 u. (+2.3 u.)


bernardoGui's Footy-record: 7 -7 - 1 ( +4.3 ) .



A splendid evening to You all !

[bernardoGui]

A quick 'Live-Bet-Counter-attack' - Brøndby IF (DK) @ Club Brügge (BE) . HALFTIME.


- 'Under 2.5 goals total' @ +300 (x 0.3 u.)


G L .

[bernardoGui]

Obviously I got carried away on the feast of the early game. Should have taken the 'Over 2.5' at halftime instead of the 'Under'. That way, I would have ensured a win. The 'Over 2.5 total' was just too expensive at halftime (@ -500) so I took a chance, tailing my preliminary pick in the 'Unders department' instead. Well, at least I made it into the green numbers again!

Brøndby IF (DK) @ Club Brügge (BE) - [ -3.3 u.]

1. 'Under 2.5' @ -125 x 2.5 u. ( -2.5 u.).

2. 'Brøndby DNB @ +225 x 0.5 u. ( -0.5 u.).

3. Halftime live bet (2-0) : 'Under 2.5 goals total' @ +300 x 0.3 u. ( -0.3 u.).



bernardoGui's Footy record : 7 - 10 - 1 ( +1 u.)

[bernardoGui]

- DENMARK : SUPERLIGA & NORDICBET LIGA -

1st of August 2014



1. SUPERLIGA - SønderjyskE @ Silkeborg, 'Under 2.5 goals total' @ -125 x 1.25 u.

2. SønderjyskE 'DNB' @ EV.

3. 'DRAW' @ +240 x. 0.45 u.


4. NORDICBET LIGA - Skive @ Roskilde, Roskilde to win @ +130 x 0.8 u. (NOT 1.3!)


G L .

[bernardoGui]

Phew! A finish full of suspense in Silkeborg DK, this early evening.


SønderjyskE @ Silkeborg - final result: 2 - 0 / (0-0).


1. 'Under 2.5 goals total' @ -125 x 1.25 u. (+1 u.)

2. SønderjyskE 'DNB' @ EV. (+1 u.)

3. 'DRAW' @ +240 x. 0.45 u. (-0.45 u.)


[ +1.55 u.]


Now, I know it doesn't look too good in the other game I've mentioned today and I'm beginning to accept the reality of an almost certain loss in that one. On the other hand I now see that I've posted a 1.3 u. wager amount. This is not right and therefore I've edited the post and the wager amount mentioned therein to 0.8 u. (to win 1 u.)

3 minutes + OT.. Come on you Roskilde twats!!!

[bernardoGui]

The Danish NORDICBET LIGA is a hard one to reckon with.. Too much fluxus - d@mn mistakes and a low level of technique in general.

Scoring the 1-1 equalizer in mid 2nd half, Roskilde went down by a goal again almost immediately. Then they drawed it at 2-2 in the 89th minute but only to drop momentum and conceit a match loosing third goal in the extra time.


Skive @ Roskilde - final result: 3 - 2 / (1-0).

- Roskilde to win @ +130 x 0.8 u. (-0.8 u.).



bernardoGui's Footy record : 9 - 12 - 1 (+1.75 u.)

[bernardoGui]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

- RECAP -


AS MOST OF YOU ALREADY KNOW, THE QUALIFYING ROUNDS FOR THE TWO UEFA TOURNAMENTS (CL & EL) ARE UNDER WAY.

THE 1st LEG OF THE 3rd QUALIFYING ROUNDS TOOK PLACE THIS WEEK AND THE 2nd LEG MATCHES ARE SCHEDULED FOR THIS COMING TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

OBVIOUSLY, THE UEFA TOURNAMENTS ARE AFFECTING THE VARIOUS CONTESTING CLUBS IN DIFFERENT WAYS - MENTALLY, PHYSICALLY, ETC. - NOT LEAST IN THEIR RESPECTIVE NATIONAL LEAGUES AND TOURNAMENTS.

THIS WEEKEND, THE SCANDINAVIAN TEAMS I'VE MENTIONED IN THIS THREAD ARE ONCE AGAIN ENGAGED IN THEIR NATIONAL LEAGUES AND AS SUCH, THEY ARE REVEALING THEIR IMMEDIATE FORM FOR ALL OF OUR EYES TO SEE..

WE WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWING SOME OF THEIR 2nd LEG OPPONENTS. IN OTHER WORDS:

WE ARE PREPARING FOR THE MID WEEK UEFA QUALIFIERS AS WELL AS THIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S SCANDINAVIAN SLATES.


------------------------------------------------------------------------


INTERESTING MATCHES / RESULTS :

4 Scandinavian clubs are competing in the Champions League Qualifiers. They all played on Saturday.


1. HJK of Finland - 2nd of August: 1-0 win, away.

HJK made a 2-2 draw in the 1st leg CL match @ home vs. APOEL Nicosia of Cyprus.

Before the draw in Helsinki, Apoel hadn't played any competitive matches since the 31st of May. However, they played 4 friendlies in July - 3 wins and 1 draw. Goal difference: 7:3. 1 clean sheet.

As for HJK, their season started some 22 rounds ago and they are leading the table with 48 points and a goal difference of 39:13. They won last year's 'Veikkausliiga' with 73 points in 33 matches total / goal difference: 78:25.

At the moment, the lines for the 2nd leg match are: Apoel Nicosia(ML): -200 / DRAW: +280 / HJK Helsinki(ML): +650 .


2. Malmö FF of Sweden - 2nd of August: 5-2 win, away.

Malmö FF lost by 4-2 in their 1st leg CL match away vs. Sparta Prague of the Czech Republic.

As in Finland, the Swedish 'Allsvenskan' league have been up and running for about half a season. Malmö FF hold the immediate lead with 40 points for 17 matches / 35:14. They won last year's Allsvenskan with 63 points for 30 matches / 56:30.

Sparta Prague also played a competitive match today, winning 3-0 @ Jihlava. The Czech 'Synot' league have only just started with this round being the 2nd. Sparta have now won the first two matches and taken the immediate league lead, with a goal difference of 5:1. They won last year's Czech premier with 79 points for 30 matches / 78:19.

At the moment, the lines for the 2nd leg match are: Malmö FF(ML): +180 / DRAW: +240 / Sparta Prague(ML): +140 .


3. FC Copenhagen of Denmark - 2nd of august: 2-2 draw, away.

FC Copenhagen made a 0-0 draw in their 1st leg CL qualifier away vs. Dnipro of Ukraine.

Dnipro barely made it a 1-0 win today, visiting Volyn Lutsk (in Lutsk - the North Western part of Ukraine).

At the moment, the lines for the 2nd leg match are: FC Copenhagen(ML): +160 / DRAW: +220 / Dnipro(ML): +175 .


4. AaB / Aalborg BK of Denmark - 2nd of August: 1-1 draw away.

AaB lost their 1st leg qualifier @ home vs. Din. Zagreb on wednesday evening by 1-0 and today they only scored 1 goal, making it a final 1-1 draw. Obviously, they'll need more than that in the 2nd-legger; first of all because of Dinamo's 'away goal'.

As already stated in an earlier thread, focusing on Scandinavian clubs, Aab won the Danish Double (The Superliga & the Cup) last season. The league was won with 62 points for 33 matches / 60:38.

Dinamo Zagreb won their Croatian 'HNL' league match comfortably 5-0 @ home vs. Zadar, a team which finished #7 of 10 in the season of 13/14 and with a goal difference of 35:67 in 36 matches total. Dinamo Zagreb have won the latest 9 (!!) consequetive Croatian league titles - last year with 84 points for 36 matches / 83:26.


At the moment, the lines for the 2nd leg match vs. Aab are: Din. Zagreb(ML): -188 / DRAW: +300 / Aab(ML): +500 .

--

I think there are some fairly exciting betting perspectives in these CL qualifiers and I am awaiting a wider range of betting lines to be announced.

For now, and with regards to the 2nd leg EUROPA LEAGUE Qualifiers, the following 6 national matches is of special interest. Two Danish Sunday-bashers and a Swedish clash on Monday evening. The last three matches are involving some of the opposing teams from the EL qualifiers.

1. Esbjerg FB @ FC Nordsjælland (Sunday)

2. Brøndby IF @ Hobro (Sunday)

3. AIK Stockholm @ IFK Göteborg (Monday)

-----

4. Ruch @ Podbeskidzie (early Sunday..)

5. Lierse @ Club Brügge (Sunday)

6. FC Astana @ Zhetyso (early Sunday)



Still working on a few picks..

[bernardoGui]

- Sunday, August 3rd 2014 -


EKSTRAKLASA (Poland)

Ruch Chorzów @ Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala

1. DRAW at halftime @ EV.

2. Correct score at halftime: 0-0 @ +150 x 0.5 u.

3. Under 2.5 goals total in the match @ -164 x 2.5 u.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

DANISH NORDICBET LIGA

- Sunday Aug. 3rd 2014 -


AGF @ Brønshøj

1. AGF (ML) @ -164 x 1.7 u.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

2nd half developments on the Eastern Front, have 'stolen' most part of the projected gross of this afternoon.


I'm reminded of TUCKER'S LAW:

"If some c§nt can f@ck something up,
that c§nt will pick the worst possible
time to f@cking f@ck it up,
because that c§nt's a c§nt!"

http://youtu.be/4m7lKiCO2UE?t=1m35s


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EKSTRAKLASA (Poland)

Ruch Chorzów @ Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala - final result: 0 - 3 / (0-0).

1. DRAW at halftime @ EV. ( +1 u.)

2. Correct score at halftime: 0-0 @ +150 x 0.5 u. (+0.75 u.)

3. Under 2.5 goals total in the match @ -164 x 2.5 u. (-2.5 u.)

[ -0.75 u.]

[bernardoGui]

DANISH NORDICBET LIGA

- Sunday Aug. 3rd 2014 -


AGF @ Brønshøj - final result: 5 - 0 / (3-0).

1. AGF (ML) @ -164 x 1.7 u. (+1 u.)

[ +1 u.]


bernardoGui's Footy record : 12 - 13 - 1 ( +2 u.)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


..and now for something completely different: BE - NE - PARLAY !?


1 u. on the following double:

1. (BElgium) - Lierse @ Club Brügge; Club Brügge to score in the 1st half @ -250.

2. (NEderlands) - Super Cup - Ajax vs. Zwolle; Ajax Amsterdam -1 AH @ -208.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

Danish SUPERLIGA

- Aug. 3rd 2014 -

1st half LIVE BET - Brøndby IF @ Hobro: 'Total corners 1st half; Under 2 AH' @ +275 x 0.5 u.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

Danish SUPERLIGA

- Aug. 3rd 2014 -

1st half LIVE BET - Brøndby IF @ Hobro: 'Total corners; OVER 8 AH' @ EV.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

BE - NE - PARLAY !?

- NOT 'BENE', AS IN 'GOOD' !


1. (BElgium) - Lierse @ Club Brügge - final result: 0 - 1 / (0-1).

Club Brügge to score in the 1st half @ -250. [WIN]

2. (NEderlands) - Super Cup - Ajax vs. Zwolle - final result: 0 - 1 / (0-0).

Ajax Amsterdam -1 AH @ -208. [LOSS]

[-1 u.]



MALCOLMTUCKER !!

[bernardoGui]

Absolutely not a good day so far !!


Danish SUPERLIGA

- Aug. 3rd 2014 -

1st half LIVE BET - Brøndby IF @ Hobro

'Total corners 1st half; Under 2 AH' @ +275 x 0.5 u.

Result: 3 corners total in 1st half. ( -0.5 u.)



With a 4 - 3 record on the day, I think I'll just hang back for a while.. Take it easy.. Wait for those corners in Hobro DK..

[bernardoGui]

Stinky Sunday in Scandinavia..


Latest play: Danish SUPERLIGA- 1st half LIVE BET - Brøndby IF @ Hobro

'Total corners; OVER 8 AH' @ EV.

Final number: 8 corners total. (PUSH).


[ 3rd of Aug. 2014 - Record of the day (rev.): 4 - 3 - 1 ( -1.25 u.) ]



bernardoGui Footy record: 13 - 15 - 2 ( +0.5 u.).

[bernardoGui]

Swedish 'Allsvenskan' league

- Monday August 4th 2014 -


AIK Stockholm @ IFK Göteborg

At the moment, the lines are:

AIK Stockholm(ML): +320 / DRAW: +275 / IFK Göteborg(ML): -125 . // Under 2.5 @ +107 / Over @ -138.


Both teams were engaged in 3rd round Europa League qualifiers on Thursday evening.

AIK Stockholm made a decent 1-1 result (far!) away in Kazakhstan and they now have a bright outlook, going into the 2nd leg match @ home this coming Thursday. In Allsvenskan, AIK hold an immediate #3 spot of 16 with 31 points in 16 matches / 33:23. They have a match in hand, but Elfsborg and Häcken's wins on Sunday has put the pressure on AIK in the immediate duel for the 2nd spot and (maybe even more importantly!?) the race for the final top 3 spots and with them the tickets for next year's UEFA circus.

AIK's home record has been very good this season (5 wins in the latest 5), which we'll keep in mind for our picks on Thursday; AIK's road record is another story though (1 win in the latest 5). All of these latest 10 league matches went 'Over 2.5' and they are the team, of the Top 6 teams, that concedes the most goals. This puzzles a Manager, but also this bettor because it makes it difficult to execute the few plays, he is contemplating: the 'Under 3 AH' @ -152 (also a weak lean towards the 'Under 2.5' @ +107).

IFK Göteborg took a not so decent 1-0 home loss on Thursday vs. a Portuguese 'Catenaccio'. To concede a goal, in a game such as this, is not really that surprising, nor is is it a surprise that a Portuguese team, from the upper half of their table, kept a clean sheet. The surprising thing is that IFK haven't been able to score a goal in 3 consecutive matches. Especially when you take into consideration, that they scored 6 goals and conceded only 1 in the 2 matches prior to the 3 latest. It looks like a form-crisis to me.. Mentally, physically, socially/organizationally? It doesn't really matter right now, as the numbers speak for themselves.

IFK hold the immediate #6 spot of 16 in the league with 26 points in 16 matches / 27:18. Obviously this is not good enough for a team with Europa- and even Champions League ambitions (there is always next year!). Breaking down these general stats, it reveals a record of 1.69 goals scored pr. match and 1.13 goals conceded pr. match, this season. And with the latest home result vs. Portuguese team Rio Ave in mind, this doesn't make a strong argument for the 'Over' tonight, but the line is still dropping..

Now, I know that this is a classic Swedish Soccer Rivalry - between East & West, etc. - AND that IFK Göteborg have won the latest 2 H2H matches. 1 @ home and 1 away in Stockholm. Both by two goals. BUT their immediate form speaks against them, very loud in my opinion, and I simply cannot figure out why the lines have dropped so drastically, since yesterday!? AIK(ML) from around +230 to +320 !

@ this deadline there are no Lineups available. However, both clubs have stated the squads for the match on their WWWP's and all players, involved in the mid week UEFA matches, are possible starters for this evening in Gothenburg. As such, there's no reason not to expect a lively match with a lot of goals.. BUT..

With very important midweek UEFA matches coming up, I think this is the main concern for both clubs right now. AND if any of the two teams are to have 'a snowball's chance in hell', in order to advance into the EL tournament, it is an absolute necessity to keep a clean sheet first of all, come Thursday.

The way I see it, tonight's match will be a much needed opportunity for both teams to practice their defensive strategies and tactics, not focusing primarily on offense. Also, I think that it is obvious that AIK are performing way better at the moment and that they will score the goals of the match and either way, they'll probably score more goals than IFK. That's why I am leaning very heavily towards the 'AIK Stockholm DNB @ +175, as well.

I can see how one could argue, that IFK DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE in the EL qualifiers and that they've already accepted this fact themselves. AIK have great chances of advancement in EL and in that perspective, I guess they'll have to 'economize' the squad much tighter than IFK would have to. Maybe this is also the logic reflected in the betting lines? Either way, I think that this is an even better argument for trying a small bet on the 'Under 2.5' or 'Under 3 AH'. After all, they are playing for important points for the Allsvenskan table AND the prestige that comes with solid performances in this particular type of match.


G L .

& a peaceful evening to you all !

[chuda]

these two missing for AIK. - Ibrahim Bangura, Panjoatis Dimitridis, how important are they ?

[bernardoGui]

these two missing for AIK. - Ibrahim Bangura, Panjoatis Dimitridis, how important are they ?

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/aik-s...ite/verein/272


As for this Ibrahim Bangura fella', You mention; is it this guy, You're thinking of?

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/teteh...spieler/174984

[chuda]

must be, i just checked missings, his name was there, anyway ... price is dropping on a home team, but i`ll join for AIK DNB @ 2.95...
nothing much between them , price is good...

[bernardoGui]

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/aik-s...ite/verein/272


As for this Ibrahim Bangura fella', You mention; is it this guy, You're thinking of?

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/teteh...spieler/174984

There's not really any news on him and his injury, as of (very) late.. Here's something from January 2014, for starters:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201401300705.html

Within the latest 1½-2 months, he's made the squad (the bench) 1 or 2 times..


Judge his importance and effect on the immediate AIK form, Yourself!

[bernardoGui]

must be, i just checked missings, his name was there, anyway ... price is dropping on a home team, but i`ll join for AIK DNB @ 2.95...
nothing much between them , price is good...

Good luck, friend !

[bernardoGui]

Swedish 'Allsvenskan' league

- Monday August 4th 2014 -


AIK Stockholm @ IFK Göteborg


1. 'Under 3 AH' @ -152 x 1.55 u.

2. AIK Stockholm 'DNB' @ +175 (not +275 as wrongly stated in the above) x. 0.45 u.

[bernardoGui]

Looked like a clean penalty for AIK, to me.. D@mn - could've been the edge right there.

Come on AIK !!

[chuda]

good start

[bernardoGui]

good start

Looks like AIK brought their A game.. If this continues, I'm placing a bet on them to advance and or to win in the EL on Thursday.


BTW. AND completely out of context: I just saw the line for Croatian team RIJEKA to win 1st half in their league match, starting in 7 minutes. @ +110. Interesting !

[chuda]

that`s should be payed out allready...

i am taking another bet... next team to score aik... i think when one big team overcomes other , they don`t stop

[bernardoGui]

that`s should be payed out allready...

i am taking another bet... next team to score aik... i think when one big team overcomes other , they don`t stop

Well, I definitely hope that they will stop right now!