[meyer0416]

How is James Rodriguez not a lock to win or atleast tie for most goals scored with 6?? 2 games left.. Messi with 4 and muller with 4... How in the world is one of those guys going to score 3 goals in the last 2 games?? Am I missing something?? Odds at -161 this morning and now at -175.. I missed this morning but put 350 on it at -175.. Free money??

[JOHON8]

It's not 3 goals, it's 2 goals to tie James. Messi, the best candidate, is needed to score or create at least 1 goal vs Netherlands and then at least 1 in the final. Muller is under less pressure but in a good position on his team to pull it off. I think the odds reflect this fact, I don't see oddsmakers making a mistake here.

[meyer0416]

I'll take a tie... I still get half my stake (175) back, then get paid on the other half (175 for 100) seems like a lock.. No way messi scores 3 in the next 2 games.. I'll take 2 goals.. Right??

[meyer0416]

Risk 350 to win 100 at minimum unless messi scores 3 seems like a good bet

[JOHON8]

I'll take a tie... I still get half my stake (175) back, then get paid on the other half (175 for 100) seems like a lock.. No way messi scores 3 in the next 2 games.. I'll take 2 goals.. Right??

The way things have been going you should be safe IMO, you're just not going to cheer very loudly if Messi or Muller pull it off.

[JOHON8]

I think before the world cup James was at like +20000 at some books, books will cash in a lot of money from bettors who took players like Messi/other popular goal scorers.

[bosigga]

Just fyi

If there is more than one player with the same amount of goals, the tie-breaker goes to the player who has contributed the most assists (with the FIFA Technical Study Group deciding whether an assist is to be counted as such). If there is still more than one player, the tie-breaker goes to the player who has played the least amount of time.^[5]

I believe it's

Rodriguez 6 goals 2 assists
Muller 4 goals 2 assists
Messi 4 goals 1 assist

So you can take 2 goals from Muller and 2 goals + 1 assist from Messi, and Rodriguez will still win because of least playing time

[vasilli07]

If Argentina or Germany lose in the semis, Messi and Muller will be favs. There will be very little defence played in the 3rd v 4th placing game.

[JOHON8]

Shit, 2 good points by the gentleman above.

[frugalgambler]

I think the line now is -145 at 5d (opened @-150 went to -205 now back down to -145).

I like that option too: over the past 6 WCs only Ronaldo scored three goals over the last two games of the tournament. And he was the only Golden Boot winner to win with >6 goals (he got 8). Messi @~+500 is probably the best second option: I think there will be more goals scored in the 2nd SF. A valid point about the 3rd place match likely to be more high-scoring, except if we get Argentina-Brazil. That one would still be very hotly contested. Anyway, I highly doubt that any team will score more than a goal in the semis so there might be decent hedging opportunities prior to the last matches. Of course, Robben or Van Persie can score four goals in the 3rd place match (this is also an option !). Also check your book's tie-break rules. Some books explicitly state that dead-heat rules apply (not 5d).

[frugalgambler]

Also, keep in mind that, I think, Muller is the first-option PK taker for Germany (and I think Messi too for Argentina). In short, I do not think this is a mortal lock at all, but at ~-150 this is a good line; not at -200.

And while the 3rd place match will be a lot less tense, I still do not think it will be a high-scoring affair. Only the heavyweights are left, and the 3rd place match will be quite meaningful, especially if it will involve Brazil or even better Brazil-Argentina.

[vasilli07]

This bet likely to be toasted now. Muller scored 2 today.

[reddevil84]

Mueller 1 goal 1 assist that should be close with Messi still 2 matchs to play