1. 12-10-09 11:32 PM #1
    905prodigy
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    TRAP!? What do you guys think..

    (First Place) Bayer 04 Leverkusen ML -136 against (Last Place) Hertha Berlin
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  2. 12-10-09 11:47 PM #2
    Rellik
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    Be very careful with this game. Bayer has only won 1 game and 4 ties when playing away in the last 5 games. Last place teams always play their best against the top teams in the league. This might end up in a tie.
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  3. 12-11-09 12:15 AM #3
    905prodigy
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    I thought about that but... 3 of those ties were against Schalke, Hamburg, Munich (3 teams in top 5) which is rather impressive. Hertha doesnt even average a goal a game and Bayer has only 9 GA so i figure even one goal should do the job. The part that scares me is the line at -136
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  4. 12-11-09 12:49 AM #4
    rfr3sh
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  5. 12-11-09 02:10 AM #5
    LinWin
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    I'm not sure what the trap is. Hertha has been much better until recently.
    They have beaten Leverkusen in their last three in 2008 and 2009. Maybe that gives
    a bit higher odds on Leverkusen.

    But today Hertha is rock bottom and Leverkusen is unbeaten the whole season. Also, if
    Leverkusen wins today they are number one for the winter break.
    I have put some money on Leverkusen @ 1.77
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  6. 12-11-09 02:53 AM #6
    PAPSMEAR
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    smells like a bunged up sewer
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  7. 12-11-09 05:47 AM #7
    mariomonte
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    No trap, but not much value either. Leverkusen's recent performances were quite unimpressive, especially vs. defensive opponents. Hertha has been terrible earlier in the season, but under their new coach they can at least play a solid defence.
    So this match will either end an easy Bayer 3-0 or an ugly 0-0/0-1 either way. I don't see a 65%+ chance for Bayer, so no play for me.
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  8. 12-11-09 07:01 AM #8
    LinWin
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    I calculated the probability for Leverkusen win with the odds: 1: 5.25, X: 3.50, 2: 1.74, to
    be 60%.
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  9. 12-11-09 07:10 AM #9
    mihaita666
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    how do u calculate it ? can u explain to me thtough an algoritm ? (i know integrals, dervitives, i can understand mostly everything ) )
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  10. 12-11-09 07:17 AM #10
    LinWin
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    Quote Originally Posted by mihaita666 View Post
    how do u calculate it ? can u explain to me thtough an algoritm ? (i know integrals, dervitives, i can understand mostly everything ) )
    It's not that complicated

    Betbrain has an explanation and example here:

    http://www.betbrain.com/infos/aboutP...ulation/site/0

    Just ask if there's something you don't get.

    The probability of 60% for Leverkusen win is the probability the bookmaker has
    put on the team. There's no profit or anything else in this number.
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  11. 12-11-09 11:47 AM #11
    chibears
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rellik View Post
    Be very careful with this game. Bayer has only won 1 game and 4 ties when playing away in the last 5 games. Last place teams always play their best against the top teams in the league. This might end up in a tie.
    yeah but against decent teams, berlin is anything but a decent team, but for some reason -135 looks fishy to me too. i might just pull the trigger on bayer though.
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  12. 12-11-09 01:15 PM #12
    mantorras77
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    Quote Originally Posted by LinWin View Post
    I calculated the probability for Leverkusen win with the odds: 1: 5.25, X: 3.50, 2: 1.74, to
    be 60%.
    different odds means different probabilities..while whatever book you got those odds from means 60%..it might mean 65% from a different book since odds vary so greatly between books in this sport.
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  13. 12-11-09 02:37 PM #13
    rfr3sh
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    1-0 Hertha
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  14. 12-11-09 03:44 PM #14
    905prodigy
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    2-2 Final Score Hertha Berlin ties it in Extra Time
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  15. 12-11-09 05:57 PM #15
    akerber
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    i beted pk +0.5 leverkusen when herta made 1-0
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  16. 12-11-09 10:09 PM #16
    Trixie
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    Hertha are last but they aren't a bad team...
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  17. 12-12-09 02:06 AM #17
    mew6789
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    Quote Originally Posted by akerber View Post
    i beted pk +0.5 leverkusen when herta made 1-0
    You bet it late? I bet Leverkuson -0.5, -1 immediately after they went down.
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  18. 12-12-09 02:12 AM #18
    PAPSMEAR
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAPSMEAR View Post
    smells like a bunged up sewer
    big dirty bear traps will tear your leg off every time
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  19. 12-12-09 04:31 AM #19
    LinWin
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAPSMEAR View Post
    big dirty bear traps will tear your leg off every time
    It wasn't a "trap", just bad luck. Leverkusen scored to 2-1 in the last minute.
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  20. 12-12-09 08:22 AM #20
    Hybris
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    Quote Originally Posted by LinWin View Post
    It wasn't a "trap", just bad luck. Leverkusen scored to 2-1 in the last minute.
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  21. 12-12-09 10:17 AM #21
    BL
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    Mönchengladbach-Hannover ends 5-3.
    3 goals were owngoals !

    Haggui scored 2 owngoals himself
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  22. 12-13-09 01:52 AM #22
    905prodigy
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    haha imagine hattrick of own goals probably the day to consider ending your career
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