Latvia are the hosts of this tournament, why would they lose in front of their crowd against the weakest team. Moreover Latvia and Lithuania both with 10 Baltic Cups, so they both want to get ahead by winning it. Clear win Latvia.
i am sceptical about your friend`s friend information too... it`s kind of baltic state darby, last time these 2 met was in estonia and estonians was lucky to scrape a draw, because latvia went man down in a middle of game and still had a better chances. if in latvian starting linup i`ll see rudnevs, cauna, gorks... i`ll be looking at latvia -1 @ 4.33 ... only thing is that it`s latvian striker`s verpakovskis last game, if he is given start, than i wouldn`t be too encouraged for his form, but all in all , latvia is stronger team... and about fixing stuff... estonians after palying a draw with in fifa ranks not even seeded gibraltar ?! i mean, if anyone would be in for a fix here, then estonians fixing a loss. or anyone for than matter, expecialy latvians, whose league is in full swing atm and if any player would like to fix anything it would be something like a "skonto - jelgava" game...
i like your picks MakePwithme, i got montreal + 0.5 last night myself and i don`t wanna discourage anyone here, but how sure you would put it in scale of 1 to 10 yourself ?