It has been a tough year for Barcelona. Their ex-coach died a few weeks ago and I'm sure there's a general feeling in the atmosphere of the club that makes them want to win this badly.
Atletico Madrid had a chance to win the title against Malaga and weren't able to close it out. I see a very emotional win dedicated to Tito Vilanova to salvage the year with an important title.
This is no way a lock but I think it's a very strong play. Messi also renewed his contract and it will be his last game before the world cup.
Barcelona -113