1. #1
    Remi80
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    Fenerbahce @ Besiktas (21 Nov. 2009)

    [LEAGUE: Turkey Super League],

    [FORECAST: Under 2.5 goals / Fenerbahce 0],


    REASON:

    Besiktas

    Besiktas will have the home advantage in this derby match, but playing in front of the home crowd may put extra pressure on the Besiktas players. Besiktas made a horrific start to the season, winning only 1 out of their first 6 league games. Nobody expected such a poor performance from the reigning Turkish champions. With each point dropped, fans became more and more uneasy and the club has gone into crisis mode. Currently most of the supporters are calling for the head of the club president, whom they blame as the reason for all the team's athletic failures. Instead of supporting the players battling on the field, the fans choose to protest everything on and off the pitch, which makes it really hard for Besiktas players to fully focus on a game.

    Besiktas grabbed some very unimpressive wins recently, and climbed to the 3rd spot in the league table, but they are still trailing arch rivals Galatasaray by 4 and Fenerbahce by 7 points. They have not done well in the Champions League neither, losing to Manchester United and Wolfsburg at home and CSKA Moscow on the road.

    The main problem with Besiktas team this year is the lack of creativity on the offensive end. They have descent central defenders in Sivok and Ferrari. They have solid midfield players in Fink, Ernst, Tello and Tabata. Tello has not gained his old form this year and has been left out of the starting 11 in recent weeks. Fink and Ernst are quality players, who play the defensive side of the game better. Tabata is a new acquisition who's still trying to adapt to the system of coach Denizli. In short, currently, there are no midfield players in the Besiktas squad who can do a satisfactory job of creating opportunities for the strikers. That is why as a team, they have scored very few times this year, 13 goals in 12 matches while allowing 6.

    Moreover Besiktas will be missing 3 influential players in this game and those are Delgado, Holosko and Koybasi.

    Fenerbahce

    On the Fenerbahce side, things look better. They have a record of 10-1-1 in the league. They top the standings both in their national league and in their Europa Group. Christoph Daum is back as the head coach of the team this year. The club president hired him again in order to achieve his goal of winning the Turkish League 3 consecutive times in the next 3 years. Daum had worked in Turkey before and left a good track record. Fenerbahce added some talented Brazilian stars in Dos Santos, and Christian Baroni to their existing squad.

    They have Alex De Souza, who, according to the club fans and local media, is one of the best foreigners to ever play in Turkey. Comparisons are made often between him and legendary Gheorge Hagi, who helped Galatasaray win the UEFA cup back in 2000.

    Fenerbahce also can improve on the offensive end as Alex is pulling most of the scoring load himself. In the games that he doesn't get a goal under his name, he usually sets one of his teammates to score an easy one.

    Spanish national Daniel Guiza has not been very impressive this year or since his arrival as a matter of fact. He recently announced to the Spanish media that he's willing to move back to Spain for the sake of his career. I am not sure how effective Guiza can be on the pitch with this state of mind.

    For the game on Saturday, Fenerbahce coach Daum has to make few decisions about his starting 11. Guiza and Lugano are both coming back from their respective national teams. Lugano played for Uruguay against Costa Rica in the World Cup Qualification Playoff match. He will be tired, but I doubt that Daum will rest him as he is the backbone of the Fenerbahce defense with Bilica.

    Match Prediction

    Despite the current forms of both teams, it's hard to predict this one as it's a derby match after all.I claim that this will be a tight match as a draw would be acceptable for both teams. Daum is known to field a defensive formation in away games like these.

    Coach Denizli has done the same thing in recent weeks against teams like Wolfsburg and Trabzonspor. Besiktas definitely doesn't want to trail during the game as the fans' protests would be too much to bear. So despite being the home team, I don't think Besiktas will attack with everything the've got as they won't be willing to take too many risks.

    There will not be too much open space on the pitch as conceding one in this game may be disastrous for either team. I don't think the goal total can go over 2.5. I expect a draw or a single goal victory for the Fenerbahce side.

    Thus take UNDER 2.5 goals as the main bet and FENERBAHCE 0 as the side bet.

    For more free forecasts check sportscritique . net

  2. #2
    Karayilan9
    FENER / TRABZON
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    Quote Originally Posted by Remi80 View Post
    Instead of supporting the players battling on the field, the fans choose to protest everything on and off the pitch, which makes it really hard for Besiktas players to fully focus on a game.
    The ultra's don't like the chairman, didn't like the last chairman either but always support the team and will be out in force and show their force in the derby. The team has not been disrupted, they won the last 6 games in a row making them the most in-form team in the league.

    Besiktas grabbed some very unimpressive wins recently, and climbed to the 3rd spot in the league table, but they are still trailing arch rivals Galatasaray by 4 and Fenerbahce by 7 points.
    Depends what you call impressive, they have conceded one goal in the past seven games. The Turkish league generally focuses more on attack than defense, Besiktas defense is very good and they can shut down games unlike other teams. A 6 game win streak is impressive in any league.

    The main problem with Besiktas team this year is the lack of creativity on the offensive end. They have descent central defenders in Sivok and Ferrari. They have solid midfield players in Fink, Ernst, Tello and Tabata. Tello has not gained his old form this year and has been left out of the starting 11 in recent weeks. Fink and Ernst are quality players, who play the defensive side of the game better. Tabata is a new acquisition who's still trying to adapt to the system of coach Denizli. In short, currently, there are no midfield players in the Besiktas squad who can do a satisfactory job of creating opportunities for the strikers. That is why as a team, they have scored very few times this year, 13 goals in 12 matches while allowing 6.
    The problem is not lack of creativity, they create lots of chances and have a strong midfield. The BIG problem has been the finishing, if I put all of Nobres missed chances together it would be a Youtube football comedy, he's missed some shockers. Then there is Nihat who in my opinion should not play striker, his finishing has been awful. Besiktas substitute strikers are better than the main teams ones. They usually score late in games when players like Bobo and Tabata come on.

    Fenerbahce typically this season play very well for around 20 minutes of a game then slow down and don't do alot in the rest of the game. They have been able to score against weak defenses with ease but will have a much harder task in this game. Alex is a match changer, a very influential player but similar to Besiktas the team also has trouble finishing and defensively they look shaky.

    There is value in Besiktas, they are home dogs @ +210 against Fener a road favorite @ +140.

  3. #3
    mihaita666
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    good Tips kara.....holy sh*t, u've got 666 points )

  4. #4
    Karayilan9
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    I'm going evil on the books Mihaita

  5. #5
    mihaita666
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    yeah..perhaps....u're a good capper... cheers

  6. #6
    TurkzZ
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    dont underestimate Besiktas here, great value on the home -0, especially with Lugano out

  7. #7
    Remi80
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    We will see I guess. I tried to be very objective. Considering the situations the teams are in right now, I am willing to bet my money on Fenerbahce winning, in the exclusion of a draw. Despite being a Fenerbahce fan, I wouldn't hesitate betting on Besiktas if I thought they could stand a chance (in the past I did though).

    About the issues mentioned above.

    1) Besiktas fans are great. But whenever there is a gathering of Besiktas fans, they start protesting, doesn't matter where they are, it may be a pro basketball game or an amateur soccer event for charity. Of course that is due to recent results they've getting this year, but that's the way it is. Then the players on the pitch become nervous and the focus is shifting from the game to the stands. Besiktas went through difficult times like these before and then players like Cagdas and Youla quit the Besiktas team, suggesting they didn't want to deal with the fans' negative reactions any longer. These are facts, not only my observations.

    2) It's not only me saying but lot of soccer authorities agree with me in saying that Besiktas is missing creativity on the pitch. That's why even coach Denizli said that he needed "Number 10" type of player on the team, but because they couldn't convince any such foreigner to come to TUrkey (which is a problem for any big Turkish club), they had to settle with Tabata. It's still questionable how much Tabata will contribute to this team in terms of creativity.

    Those are my humble opinions. I wish you good luck with your picks. I make a killing at sportsbooks myself, and that's my approach to this game.

  8. #8
    kmarinouofm
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    beskitas has crazy home field!! could be an interesting game.. this is one of the games i really want to watch this weekend.. but none of us should really be betting...

    but the guys are right.. if i bet at all it would be the beskitas spread or moneyline.. i think the spread is a good bet..

  9. #9
    Karayilan9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Remi80 View Post
    We will see I guess. I tried to be very objective. Considering the situations the teams are in right now, I am willing to bet my money on Fenerbahce winning, in the exclusion of a draw. Despite being a Fenerbahce fan, I wouldn't hesitate betting on Besiktas if I thought they could stand a chance (in the past I did though).
    Besiktas have been rising silently, a team playing well under the radar is a team to make money on. For weeks now I've been pounding the soft lines that have been given to Besiktas and this week has been no exception.

    Fenerbahce were not in better form going into this game and they should not be favorites in Inonu, odds of 3 at home for Besiktas is great value in this situation.


    About the issues mentioned above.

    1) Besiktas fans are great. But whenever there is a gathering of Besiktas fans, they start protesting, doesn't matter where they are, it may be a pro basketball game or an amateur soccer event for charity. Of course that is due to recent results they've getting this year, but that's the way it is. Then the players on the pitch become nervous and the focus is shifting from the game to the stands. Besiktas went through difficult times like these before and then players like Cagdas and Youla quit the Besiktas team, suggesting they didn't want to deal with the fans' negative reactions any longer. These are facts, not only my observations.
    I said before the game that Besiktas fans would be backing the team and look what happened in the game, the atmosphere was amazing, the support was crazy. In big games the Ultras always have the team and players back even if they don't like the chairman. Its hard for any team to play in the Inonu stadium in these big matches because of the home support.

    2) It's not only me saying but lot of soccer authorities agree with me in saying that Besiktas is missing creativity on the pitch. That's why even coach Denizli said that he needed "Number 10" type of player on the team, but because they couldn't convince any such foreigner to come to TUrkey (which is a problem for any big Turkish club), they had to settle with Tabata. It's still questionable how much Tabata will contribute to this team in terms of creativity.
    Most so-called football experts on tv in Turkey shouldn't be taken seriously, they are there because of 'torpil' or because they were good players.

    I have watched all of Besiktas games this season their problem is not creativity, they move and pass the ball well and create alot of chances. The big problem is the finishing, Nobre and Nihat have been BIG liabilities.

    Those are my humble opinions. I wish you good luck with your picks. I make a killing at sportsbooks myself, and that's my approach to this game.
    Sagol kardesim

    These discussions are good, we'll have stronger picks if we look at games from these different angles and will find aspects of a game we didn't notice when capping.
    Last edited by Karayilan9; 11-21-09 at 02:25 PM.

  10. #10
    TurkzZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by Remi80 View Post

    1) Besiktas fans are great. But whenever there is a gathering of Besiktas fans, they start protesting, doesn't matter where they are, it may be a pro basketball game or an amateur soccer event for charity. Of course that is due to recent results they've getting this year, but that's the way it is. Then the players on the pitch become nervous and the focus is shifting from the game to the stands. Besiktas went through difficult times like these before and then players like Cagdas and Youla quit the Besiktas team, suggesting they didn't want to deal with the fans' negative reactions any longer. These are facts, not only my observations.
    lol, Erman Toroglu's clasic reaction to the besiktas fans, i feel they do a great job, and are rightly protesting agast a incompetent managment team lol.

    Unlucky on this pick dude, BOL in future

  11. #11
    TurkzZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by Karayilan9 View Post
    Most so-called football experts on tv in Turkey shouldn't be taken seriously, they are there because of 'torpil' or because they were good players.

    I have watched all of Besiktas games this season there problem is not creativity, they move and pass the ball well and create alot of chances. The big problem is the finishing, Nobre and Nihat have been BIG liabilities.
    Haha, agreed , i cant understand why Nobre gets played every game, finnaly gave Bobo a run in the first team and its paying off

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