English Premier League tip – Newcastle United v Norwich City
Newcastle welcome Norwich to St James’ Park and should be able to take care of a poor Norwich side who are just terrible away from Carrow Road.
Newcastle United
Newcaslte’s recent home form has been good starting with a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, playing for 50 minutes after Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa’s dismissal. Understandably their possession dropped to 38% for the match but it was a great result for the Toon Army.
They followed that match with a 2-0 loss to Manchester City in extra time with Yohan Cabaye and Hatem Ben Arfa coming off the bench in the 2nd half, Loic Rémy and Gabriel Obertan unused substitutes. Last game at home beat Chelsea 2-0, as expected using less of the ball than their fancied opponents with 39% possession, however having more shots than Chelsea with 15 to 13.
Newcastle welcome back their vast French contingent who will be buzzing following Les Bleus’ fantastic victory over Ukraine which takes them to Brazil 2014.
Right back Mathieu Debuchy is suspended which is a blow for Newcastle as he has been in terrific form for club and country this season. Yohan Cabaye played very well for France in Paris mid-week, Loic Rémy was hooked in the 1st leg and dropped for the 2nd, while Moussa Sissoko was the player to replace Rémy in Ukraine but failed to get any game time in France.
Thus, the incentive for these French players to impress and try and get on the plane to Brazil next year cannot be underestimated. Adding Yoan Gouffran and Hatem Ben Arfa to the mix only adds to their quality.
Norwich City
Norwich City away from home are just awful. Their last three games, albeit against quality opposition doesn’t look pretty. Arsenal destroyed them 4-1 in London before Manchester United brushed them aside 4-0 in the League Cup. Their last game away from home was a match to forget, Manchester City scoring 7 without reply to give Norwich an away record in the Premier League of 5 matches played, 1 win 0 draws and 4 defeats with a for/against of 2/14.
Norwich all over the park are ordinary with goals hard to come by and a leaky defence. Manager Chris Hughton has been under massive pressure with their 3-1 victory over West Ham at home in their last fixture temporarily relieving the calls for his dismissal.
Stats in Newcastle
Newcastle at home enjoy 49.4% possession - 10th in the Premier League
Newcastle at home average 16.8 shots on goal - 5th in the Premier League
Norwich away from home enjoy 42.4% possession - 15th in the Premier League
Norwich away from home average 9 shots on goal - 18th in the Premier League
Newcastle vs Norwich: 15 played 9 wins 4 draws 2 defeats
Norwich last won in 1988, since then a perfect 5-0-0 for Newcastle with a for/against of 10/1
Verdict
Newcastle’s home possession is distorted by their previous 2 home games in which they had less than 40%. Their previous home games saw them lose 3-2 to Hull however they had 61%, against Fulham they had 54% but had 24 shots to 3, and against West Ham Newcastle enjoyed 55% of the ball and outshot the Londoners 16-6.
Added to their home form is their confidence from their last match at Tottenham, which they fortunately won 1-0 despite allowing Tottenham 65% possession and 31 shots to 8.
Norwich are a side in trouble despite their win at home against West Ham. They lack quality and confidence, with supporters on the managers back all contributing to a team that will find it hard to get points on the road, as highlighted by the statistics above.
I expect Newcastle to dominate this game with about 55-60% of the ball and at least double the amount of shots of their opponents. At odds of around 1.80 depending where you shop, this is just too much value from the bookmakers and Newcastle to beat Norwich at home is a solid play in my opinion.
I will start with 100 units and see how things turn out.
Newcastle to win - 7 units
Newcastle/Benfica double - 1 unit
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
in:extremis 2013/2014 soccer picks
Reply With Quote