1. 11-15-13 12:47 AM #1
    Taka
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    Help me HEDGE this 8 team parlay!

    Hey guys, I need your help! A friend owed me 10€ from a side bet I won and I told him to place them on a long shot bet for me. I had him put the 10€ on a 8 team parlay, and I just won the 6th game. The two games remaining are:

    1.) Serbia to win versus Czech Republic (Davis Cup Tie Winner, -117)
    2.) UCLA -2.5 versus Washington U (College Football, -119)

    If they both win, I stand to make over 900€, which is a significant amount of money for me, at least as far as sports betting goes!

    How can I get the most out of it? Thanks!
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  2. 11-15-13 07:17 AM #2
    Taka
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    Do I have to wait for UCLA to hopefully win, until there is only tennis left (it being a series), before it makes sense hedging?
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  3. 11-15-13 07:30 AM #3
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Taka View Post
    Do I have to wait for UCLA to hopefully win, until there is only tennis left (it being a series), before it makes sense hedging?
    pretty much .

    or i guess you could bet an equal amount against your final 2 legs...

    i've done that before but unfortunately what happened is 1 game won and 1 game lost. But those games had the same exact start time.


    In this case go ahead and bet against UCLA since that game is first
    and if UCLA covers then go ahead and hedge the remaining tennis match.
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  4. 11-15-13 07:37 AM #4
    Semper Fidelis
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    I wouldn't touch it man, it looks pretty safe to me. At least the football one does. Go to the tennis forum and ask the guys there; they'll let you know if it's safe. Remember the best tennis player in the world is Serbian, so I'd say they have a very decent shot! Good luck whatever you decide buddy!
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  5. 11-15-13 05:39 PM #5
    Taka
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    Thanks guys! I am still considering riding the UCLA bet and then hedging Serbia if I make it that far... unfortunately Czechs already went from +104 to -126 after the first day, but still better than risking getting nothing in the end :/ I will be really angry with myself for not hedging it while I could should UCLA lose tonight...
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  6. 11-15-13 05:42 PM #6
    Taka
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    Semper Fidelis: That's true, and I am a big Djokovic fan, however they have to win 3 out of 5 and Djokovic can only get them 2, unless he also plays doubles. And I'm not even sure that would be enough, because doubles are a different type of game to what he is used to.
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  7. 11-15-13 05:47 PM #7
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    worried about the UCLA bet. UCLA, a ranked team, at home, and the current market places them at a 3 pt favorite? What do you think the line would be if they were playing at Huskie stadium. My advice, google "hedge calculator" and maximize your value in this spot. Probably the best move imho.
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  8. 11-15-13 10:45 PM #8
    Semper Fidelis
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    I told you buddy, don't worry about this game. I went large on this one, feel pretty confident, you'll see. Huskies might make it interesting, but in the end UCLA will cover the 3 pts. Even better, Dawgs' starting QB out now, so this one is good my man!
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  9. 11-16-13 12:12 AM #9
    Taka
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    Thanks Semper Fi! Glad you won! I decided to go with it without hedging, but then couldn't help myself but LIVE hedge once I could get Washington at +670 sometime in the third. As it turns out, that's 80€ wasted, but I think it was a reasonable thing to do, considering anything is possible in sport

    Now I have to decide whether to hedge the Serbia to win Davis Cup bet and if so, how. I can still make over 800€ (taking into account the 80€ I lost tonight) if I do not hedge and Serbia wins, but I also stand to win 0 (and lose the amount I lost hedging tonight) if they don't. Chances are Djokovic will play the doubles, not sure if he and Zimonjic can beat the Czechs though.
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  10. 11-16-13 12:27 AM #10
    gcd8
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    you better hedge because ur riding it all on the doubles match tommorow if they don't win that it's over
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  11. 11-16-13 12:29 AM #11
    VegasInsider
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    Just hedge and be done with it. Take the easy money and stop worrying about it.
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  12. 11-16-13 12:45 AM #12
    Taka
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    With the current lines, best I can do is secure 320€ (net win after tonights hedging) guaranteed win no matter the result.

    That is 320€ guaranteed vs cca 830€ or 0€ if I let it ride and hope for the best. That's a 500€ difference...
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  13. 11-16-13 12:54 AM #13
    TheMetsSuck
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    to hedge or not to hedge. shitt line to hedge with -170 on doubles match. Hedge enough to win yourself like 100 bucks and let it ride i say. should be a close match according to the line and it is being played in serbia which is huge. good luck
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  14. 11-16-13 01:01 AM #14
    VegasInsider
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    Didn't read through your thread and didn't see that you went live-bet hedge for 80.

    If the 320 isn't going to change your life, then just go for it. You picked the play for a reason, you obviously felt it was going to win or you wouldn't have chosen it.
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  15. 11-16-13 01:45 AM #15
    Taka
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    No, it's not going to change my life of course, it would however add to my bankroll (I am a small bettor) or pay a few bills. Still have a few hours to decide, but I think I am going to do as TheMetsSuck suggests and hedge just a small amount, so that I don't actually end up losing the money I already lost so far by hedging, and let the rest of it ride.

    TheMetsSuck: I can actually get the Czech to win the Cup at -120, which is obviously a better line than for the doubles and is an actual hedge.

    Thanks guys!
    Last edited by Taka; 11-16-13 at 02:09 AM.
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  16. 11-16-13 08:15 AM #16
    gasto
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    Don't be childish. Hedge. Trust me , you will lose if you don't. Most of the times the last leg of the parlay will lose. The real question is how much you should hedge. I have 9 or so team parlays where the last game was a huge favorite in NFL. $10 to win $2,000. Whenever i have not hedged the clear favorite has found a way to lose, forget about covering the spread.

    Hedge now, don't listen to anyone who says have faith . This is gambling. Nothing is guaranteed, but if you hedge you are guaranteed to at least win something. Greed is a killer
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  17. 11-16-13 08:43 AM #17
    ChrisInTheMist
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    Quote Originally Posted by gasto View Post
    Don't be childish. Hedge. Trust me , you will lose if you don't. Most of the times the last leg of the parlay will lose. The real question is how much you should hedge. I have 9 or so team parlays where the last game was a huge favorite in NFL. $10 to win $2,000. Whenever i have not hedged the clear favorite has found a way to lose, forget about covering the spread.

    Hedge now, don't listen to anyone who says have faith . This is gambling. Nothing is guaranteed, but if you hedge you are guaranteed to at least win something. Greed is a killer
    This, last leg of a 13 team teaser got back door covered.. risk was 80$ would have won 4,000$
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  18. 11-16-13 08:53 AM #18
    gasto
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    The biggest fallacy on these boards is people who believe the gambler and the books have the same info. The new CEO of the New York Stock Exchange has come out and said publicly that the retail (small time) investor has no chance . In other words the retail investor almost gets killed all the time.
    .
    You really think that a big time book is sitting there not aware of potential payouts and doing nothing. Look at the game yesterday, Miami 8.5 favorite, Dwayne Wade misses two free throws. Lebron makes two free throws and Heat up 9, 17 or so seconds to go. Dallas Mavs frantically runs up, Vince Carter gets the ball, no one in his face, makes a three. In the end Mavs lose by 6. Just coincidence. Where do you think the majority had money on. Heat off course.

    Way too many stories to tell. Gambling is shady and if you have a way to protect any winnings, YOU DO IT AT ALL COSTS. IF YOU ASK THE BOARD FOR ANY OPINIONS ON THIS YOU ARE PLAIN CLUELESS AND DESERVE TO LOSE.
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  19. 11-16-13 09:56 AM #19
    VegasInsider
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    Hope you hedged.
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  20. 11-16-13 11:04 AM #20
    TheMetsSuck
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    seems like a new doubles team then was posted last night. Looks like a much tougher squad with berdych and stepanek. hopefully that didn't cancel your hedge bet with the late switch. good luck on a huge comeback. if they win the 3rd set anything can happen
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