Pick: Home -0.75
Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.02 Bookmaker: PINNACLE
Not a big fan of solid favs but I do not understand these odds: one week ago Lanciano was an even odds (2.03) draw no bet pick at home against Bari (which isn't the most powerful team in Serie B to be honest) and now, just seven days later, they're offered at +0.5 paying almost the same price but this time Lanciano is on the road and against Novara which is widely considered one of the top 4 behind Palermo along with Siena, Empoli and Varese, all clear contenders for a Serie A spot in 2014.
Just number-crunching but Novara usually wins on average 50% of their home matches and they started this season with 7 points out of 9 collected at 'Silvio Piola' so it's probably enough to explain why is so hard not backing them here.
Lanciano heavily rely on their defense (best in the league), having scored just 5 goals in 7 matches, but it won't be easy to contain such a powerful offense like Novara one. I like piemontesi because they're a really solid team with a succesful and straightforward managing personnel, which created a chemistry very powerful (and was the starting point for their back to back promotions from Serie C2 a few years ago).
I do not expect a lot of goals and probably the first half could also end 0-0 or 1-0 but I like the chances of home team here, especially in a very particular occasion like this one: in fact on Saturday Novara and Lazio will ideally celebrate Silvio Piola 100 years, giving honours with special shirts and ceremonies to probably the greatest forward of italian football, and a lot of people will attend the game.
Novara need a win because they weren't so effective on the road so far and this could be the perfect occasion to get it one and to kick off 'Piola 100 years' celebration in very good fashion. |