Obligatory picks thread. I'm just getting started here, but I'd like a public place to track my progress and actually have an understanding of how I'm doing. It'll start out geared towards the English Premier League, but I'll add leagues as I work on those data sets. As far as betting goes, I don't trust my goal predictions for each match yet, so I'm staying away from O/U for now and sticking to the ML. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Here goes.
Barclays Premier League 8/17
West Ham -104.2
Manchester United +105
I stayed away from a Sunderland v. Fulham draw (+230) and Norwich (+215), although I saw some value there.
Sweated out a 13' Joe Cole goal until Kevin Nolan made it two at 76'. West Ham had some nice build up play today. They could afford to do it against Cardiff, but we'll see what happens when the Hammers play a stronger side. Manchester United picked its spots well. Despite being outshot and shaky at the back end, the class of Van Persie and company up front was too much for the Swans.
Manchester City cruised to a victory to clinch the parlay win started by Chelsea on Sunday, improving us to 3-0 on the young season. I'll be searching for value this week in anticipation of Week 2 fixtures.
I'm seeing some more draws out there with value, but I don't have the roll to be taking stabs at lower percentage opportunities yet. For now, I'll risk 3u on the highest probability Saturday value plays.
I opted to watch Hull-Norwich, but the Southampton/Sunderland draw is what drove the day to cash. It happened to be my highest probability play despite the long odds at the books. We'll pick up the unit and move on to Sunday.
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