[jjgold]

asian lines on betfair are almost nonexistent but still they have huge volume on 3 way ml markets.

you can have value on the draw and if it's a match with no favorite like ex. +170 +230 +170, than I believe sharps could go for the draw on 3 way ml

what if you think there is a value on an underdog to win the match? some might argue that you are leaving money on the table if you take the pk asian line or the +0.5

just my 2 cents, I might be wrong but I don't think sharps completely avoid 3 way ml on soccer

I know there is huge money on three ways lines at betfair

Its where they bulk of their money is as far as soccer, number 1 european betting option, I just think a losing prop long term

Those draws tough to figure

[ParlayininHTown]

JJ, have you addressed your soccer betting questions to Jerm?

[Dr.Gonzo]

I know there is huge money on three ways lines at betfair

Its where they bulk of their money is as far as soccer, number 1 european betting option, I just think a losing prop long term

Those draws tough to figure

Really?

Access the win price of the fav and dog in combination with the over under market. You're halfway there before you even try to cap the form.

[jjgold]

Dr what are you talking about??

[Dr.Gonzo]

Dr what are you talking about??

The relation of the draw to the fav/dog and over/under. If you only have the ability to accurately access the probability of the fav winning you can determine the probability of the draw based on the over/under market, if you can access the over/under accurately rather than relying on the market you should be even more profitable.

At this point you should have a probability of a draw based on your ratings/market. You can now consider trends/stats aimed at a draw to adjust the rating and strengthen the models accuracy.

[jjgold]

This Dr sounds like a pro

Good report Dr

Thanks

[Fishhead]

The relation of the draw to the fav/dog and over/under. If you only have the ability to accurately access the probability of the fav winning you can determine the probability of the draw based on the over/under market, if you can access the over/under accurately rather than relying on the market you should be even more profitable.

At this point you should have a probability of a draw based on your ratings/market. You can now consider trends/stats aimed at a draw to adjust the rating and strengthen the models accuracy.

Shhhhhhhhhh............oh well, most will never figure this out anyway, hell, 98% of forumvillle doesn't even bother with soccer.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Shhhhhhhhhh............oh well, most will never figure this out anyway, hell, 98% of forumvillle doesn't even bother with soccer.

Anyone who can accurately access the probability of the fav winning and hasn't figured that out is an idiot savant, not worried about it.

I'm not stuck in the gambling hell of the US so I'm not bumping shoulders with anybody to get on, plus beating soft soccer markets only succeeds in getting my accounts limited too early.

Not really tapping the glass as far as I am concerned.

[CHUBNUT]

why are people obsessed with knowing the price of the draw ? regardless of how exact it is to get the probability of the favourite in a game the draw is a complete guess between bigger margins. i've said it before, the draw is of minimal interest to people in the 3 way market and therefore the price is dictated by the weight of money on the home/away, no amount of theory, spade work or presumption is going to change the price. various bookmakers deal more in certain markets like sbobet have little interest in the 3 way while the big british books have no interset in the asian market. the fact that money can be made arbing between both markets anchors the price of the draw within certain boundaries.

The easy answer to who knows best is none. Asian market bookmakers just go with the flow looking to increase volume as the price stiffens, much like US sports. the british books can be opinionated for the simple reason that the new head of trading has penetrate all else to sell to get the job, in time he will be sacked move on to another brit book because of his experience, the whole industry is a carosel. and the reason is the owners are looking for someone who can predict better than the rest, which is impossible considering the ground they have to cover.

Ive been offered good jobs with brit books because of my success but they fail to see that I only win by being very selective in certain markets that even I couldnt control if I had to take on every game. sports betting is driven by greed on both sides and while the books have no choice but lay every game, the sharp bettor can with patience lie in the long grass. that was and always will be the recipe to winning at sports betting.

[bullock]

IBC, Sing, Pinnacle, SBO for sure

[jjgold]

The UK books are not bad either as far as English Soccer

[ardacet8]

The books that change the odds with the money getting in action at that moment. Say, all asian bookies (mansion88, w88, dafabet, sbo, and so on), 10bet (the book that is a deamon means of altering odds with the money wagered on those odds), and probably other english bookies like willhill, stan james, ladbrokes and so on.

[jjgold]

I wonder where 10bet is from is that an Asian bookie

[minet123]

The UK books are not bad either as far as English Soccer

1st shift JJ would NEVER post such nonsense

Another epic FAIL by 2nd shift JJ


and it's SBO, IBC,Pinnacle for semi pro

12Bet for recreational

and the whales swim at Samvo

[jjgold]

William Hill very sharp premier Leage lines .

Get a clue men

[minet123]

William Hill very sharp premier Leage lines .

Get a clue men

you will garner much more information watching SBO and Betfair's lay side

[betting-analyst]

Well Samvo is a broker so it´s obvious the whales and syndicates run there, single wallet for many books = scraping the line!

Betfair are not much use since they introduced the premium charge and since they have just increased commission charges to most countries they are not viable for sports betting!

Pinn use Generic odds to move lines, so their odds are reflecting the money that´s being wagered (book balancing), the best you can do is judge the early market, then you can see who´s strong and who´s wrong! , if any of you can get covered at Marathonbet take the opportunity, they get their odds so wrong, the party won´t last forever but nothing does!

[bullock]

Samvo broker has to be relatively new, they used to run a sportsbook with quite good limits, but lower payout than other books.
What sportsbooks do they open accounts at? Are they better than AC88 in any way?

[darrendice]

JJ is right about UK books and lines but apart from will hill I've been limited pretty quick... I still use pinnacle though.....