[stemellor]

2-0 to Olimpia from the first leg. Olimpia have a large tendancy to under 2.5 goals recently:

80% of last 5 games
80% of last 5 away games
60% of last 5 Copa Libertadores games
80% of last 5 away Copa Libertadores games

Atletico are obviously capable of scoring goals and overturned a 2-0 deficit in the last round against NOB, ending 2-2 on aggregate after 90 mins (both games against NOB under 2.5 goals).

Atletico are going to be reasonably happy with a 2-0 win in normal time as this puts them level. Olimpia are obviously happy with less than 3 goals scored and I'm sure will be set out to defend. The main risk is Atletico pressing to score and getting hit on the counter. Atletico will probably want to keep the first half quite tight as they know if Olimpia score first this will effectively kill off the match.

The odds are increasing on the u2.5 goal market and are around 2.2 now, up from a starting position of around 1.85. Clearly, the markets do not agree with the above and think at least 3 goals will be scored. There is the square angle that the game is high profile and everybody loves the overs. Is there anything else I'm missing here? If not, I think this is worth a unit play.

[vasilli07]

I will probably live play Atletico Mineiro -1 or ML. They have not lost at home for over a year. With the likes of Dinho, Bernard, Tardelli and Jo, they should have enough fire power upfront to score 2 goals.

Got this from a website.

Atletico and Olimpia are the highest-scoring teams in the competition. Both scored 16 goals in six group-stage matches and the Brazilians have taken their tally to 27 in the knockout rounds, against 25 by the Paraguayans.

[swordsandtequila]

Was looking at this match earlier, market definitely geared towards the over. Stats say otherwise. Might be a no play, gonna wait and see.

[stemellor]

I will probably live play Atletico Mineiro -1 or ML. They have not lost at home for over a year. With the likes of Dinho, Bernard, Tardelli and Jo, they should have enough fire power upfront to score 2 goals.

Got this from a website.

Fair point. Although the Olimpia games went under, it was mainly Olimpia scoring the goals. Combine that with Atletico's scoring rate and this could indicate a game to go over.

Was looking at this match earlier, market definitely geared towards the over. Stats say otherwise. Might be a no play, gonna wait and see.

Probably a no play for me here as well. Market movements are completely against my lean

[Akatana]

I'm considering making a play on the dogs here or the under as well. Olimpia is just one of those clubs that can upset Mineiro with the way they play! They don't fear Mineiro whatsoever. The only downside is if you play the +1 for Olimpia unless you get a magical performance from them on the night at best you're probably gonna end up with a push!
I think the O/U choice in this match-up is going to be a total coin-flip for me. The lines suggest no more than 3 goals so you have to be on the right side of that coin flip to hit.
This may sound somehow unorthodox but i'm considering playing Olimpia to win the cup @ 1.524 because i think Mineiro are going to have to pull way more than they did against NOB to turn things around against Olimpia a lot of people who don't know Olimpia very well think that Mineiro will easily score 2 at home and take it further but i beg to differ. I think Olimpia will take care of business and i see them scoring as well possibly, on the other hand playing Mineiro to lift the cup has good odds attached to it but i wouldn't touch it myself because i fancy Olimpia in this one to cause an upset.

[stemellor]

I'm considering making a play on the dogs here or the under as well. Olimpia is just one of those clubs that can upset Mineiro with the way they play! They don't fear Mineiro whatsoever. The only downside is if you play the +1 for Olimpia unless you get a magical performance from them on the night at best you're probably gonna end up with a push!
I think the O/U choice in this match-up is going to be a total coin-flip for me. The lines suggest no more than 3 goals so you have to be on the right side of that coin flip to hit.
This may sound somehow unorthodox but i'm considering playing Olimpia to win the cup @ 1.524 because i think Mineiro are going to have to pull way more than they did against NOB to turn things around against Olimpia a lot of people who don't know Olimpia very well think that Mineiro will easily score 2 at home and take it further but i beg to differ. I think Olimpia will take care of business and i see them scoring as well possibly, on the other hand playing Mineiro to lift the cup has good odds attached to it but i wouldn't touch it myself because i fancy Olimpia in this one to cause an upset.

I'm with you on Olimpia winning this. You can't expect to win a major cup by being 2-0 down after the first leg in the semis and the finals. I think Olimpia will set out with the same gameplan as NOB, but do it properly. That again points me to the under being the best value bet though...

[Akatana]

I'm with you on Olimpia winning this. You can't expect to win a major cup by being 2-0 down after the first leg in the semis and the finals. I think Olimpia will set out with the same gameplan as NOB, but do it properly. That again points me to the under being the best value bet though...

Agree with you as well...i think i'll make around three separate bets on this game and one of them will probably be the under, i'm still making my mind up and researching on the info, when i decide which will be by tonight, will post all my plays here. Bol if you take the action on this.

[stemellor]

Agree with you as well...i think i'll make around three separate bets on this game and one of them will probably be the under, i'm still making my mind up and researching on the info, when i decide which will be by tonight, will post all my plays here. Bol if you take the action on this.

You too, hope it cashes. I'll look out for your post later.

[bing]

2-0 to Olimpia from the first leg. Olimpia have a large tendancy to under 2.5 goals recently:

80% of last 5 games
80% of last 5 away games
60% of last 5 Copa Libertadores games
80% of last 5 away Copa Libertadores games

Atletico are obviously capable of scoring goals and overturned a 2-0 deficit in the last round against NOB, ending 2-2 on aggregate after 90 mins (both games against NOB under 2.5 goals).

Atletico are going to be reasonably happy with a 2-0 win in normal time as this puts them level. Olimpia are obviously happy with less than 3 goals scored and I'm sure will be set out to defend. The main risk is Atletico pressing to score and getting hit on the counter. Atletico will probably want to keep the first half quite tight as they know if Olimpia score first this will effectively kill off the match.

The odds are increasing on the u2.5 goal market and are around 2.2 now, up from a starting position of around 1.85. Clearly, the markets do not agree with the above and think at least 3 goals will be scored. There is the square angle that the game is high profile and everybody loves the overs. Is there anything else I'm missing here? If not, I think this is worth a unit play.

I believe you have the right angle for this game. I´m playing the under myself. Dont´know why odds are increasing for the under unless public is going hard on the over...

Today Atletico is not playing in the Independencia field and for me that is a huge minus for the home team. Atletico hasn´t lost playing in that stadium for over 50 games I believe...Independencia field can only support something around 15k to 18k people and the crowd is so close to the field and dimensions are much smaller than today´s stadium. Coach Cuca has really managed his team to play well in Independencia and if they were playing there tonight, I would probably have a different opinion.

Tonight stage is the Mineirão that was rebuit for next year World Cup. It´s a totally different stadium and the atmosphere is totally different and Atletico doesn´t have the same dominance playing in that field. Add to that, coach Cuca is known to be one of the best coaches of Brazil but he´s better know as a coach who doesn´t win titles. I expect Atletico to dominate the game but it will be hard for them to find the net more than once...and I don´t believe Olimpia will be able to score...I predict a 1-0 or 2-0 max for Atletico

I´m playing the under because I have confidence in Olimpia´s defensive system. They played Fluminense in Rio and draw 0-0 and played Santa Fe and lost 1-0 and the goal was taken in the 76th minute. Olimpia doesn´t have a strong squad but they can defend better than NOB imo. Atletico has a strong offense but they struggled against NOB and Tijuana and they had a lot of luck to be in the finals...I can see them winning 2-0 and taking this game to pk...so I´m playing the under eventhough odds are going up in this game..

[Akatana]

These are my plays on the final:
Olimpia to win the cup @ 1.524 on Pinny
1st half +0.5 Olimpia @ 1.82 (Ladbrokes
Under 2.5 & 3 @ 1.80 ( Ladbrokes

[swordsandtequila]

Skipping this one, gonna ride the US to win back my losses in today's friendlies . Good luck.

[swordsandtequila]

Skipping this one, gonna ride the US to win back my losses in today's friendlies . Good luck.

[vasilli07]

Atletico Mineiro did it again...the comeback kings.

[stemellor]

Atletico Mineiro did it again...the comeback kings.

Fair play to them. Played the under and managed to cash even though the game didn't really play out as I expected.

[Akatana]

These are my plays on the final:
Olimpia to win the cup @ 1.524 on Pinny
1st half +0.5 Olimpia @ 1.82 (Ladbrokes
Under 2.5 & 3 @ 1.80 ( Ladbrokes

Oh well hats off to them for making another come-back at home.