[Sportslover]

My aim when betting on football is to bet on outcomes that have odds of -110 ($1.90) or better and achieve a winning percentage of at least 53%. This will allow me to profit over the length of the season, obviously the higher the winning percentage, the higher the profit.

For those interested, I always bet the same amount for each game, 1 unit, which is equal to 1% of my bankroll at the start of the season.

I'll use this thread to keep you all updated on the soccer bets I'm making.

Tonight I'm on Southend vs Southampton Over 2.5 EV.

Southampton's last 3 games have ended with 4 or 5 goals being scored in total, Southampton being on 2 points means they have to go out and attack teams and try to win games so they can drag themselves out of relegation trouble. They're also a quality side which means they've got the ability to go out and attack most teams in League One even if they're playing away. Also, Pardew is quite an attacking manager and Southampton are virtually injury free so I'm expecting a good performance and some goals from them.

When an away team goes out and attacks their opposition it often leads to a fairly open game and that's the way I see this encounter at Southend tonight.

The rest of the weekend's action for me:

League One

Gillingham vs Wycombe Over 2.5 -110

Tranmere vs Stockport Over 2.5 -105

League Two

Grimsby vs Burton Over 2.5 EV

Hopefully we can all bag a few more winners this weekend, good luck everybody!

[InThisMoment]

good luck to you, Do you msinly concentrate on the lower level English games?

[Bakerdew]

do you have a record so far, or are you just starting

[Sportslover]

good luck to you, Do you msinly concentrate on the lower level English games?

Thanks. I do like to bet on most top level European leagues, however, England is the only country where I bet on lower division games. Which leagues do you concentrate on for football betting?

do you have a record so far, or are you just starting

On SBR, I am just starting my official record for soccer bets in this thread.

I did start soccer handicapping last season and have been betting on my picks both last season and the beginning of this season. There's probably not much point in posting my past record up until now because anybody can invent a record.

[demize21]

BOL

[Bakerdew]

Understandable, Hope You start posting your record of your picks on here.

[Sportslover]

BOL

Cheers.

Understandable, Hope You start posting your record of your picks on here.

Absolutely, I certainly will be posting my soccer bets and keeping record here from now on. I'm looking forward to doing this, should be fun.

[FooFighters]

Good luck man always nice to see new stuff

[Sportslover]

Good luck man always nice to see new stuff

Cheers.

I've also got another bet to add for a World Cup Qualifier that I have picked out.

Portugal vs Hungary: Under 2.5 +120

Both teams are good defensively, if we take out the games against the Group's weakest team, Malta, then Portugal has only conceded 0.71 per game and Hungary has only conceded 0.83 per game.

Portugal has scored just 6 goals in 7 games (not counting the game against Malta) making that just 0.86 goals per game. Hungary has scored 5 goals in 6 games (again, not counting the games against Malta) giving them a record of 0.83 goals per game. Portugal's record is slightly worse at home at just 0.67 goals per home game while Hungary's record away from home improves to 1.00 goals per game. In Portugal 3 home games, they have finished scoreless in 2 of those games.

These 2 sides met in Hungary only last month, with the match ending in a 1-0 victory for Portugal. Hungary couldn't score against Portugal at home so I feel they will struggle to score against a defensively solid Portugal team when playing away from home. Portugal, needing a win, might be a little nervous in front of their own fans, the pressure on this Portugal team to win might impact on their ability to play free-flowing football.

I feel that Portugal will win this one, either 1-0 or 2-0, realistically Hungary won't qualify so Portugal is the team that has everything to play for. I can't see Hungary scoring and with so much pressure on Portugal to win I can't see them playing their best football in these circumstances. Therefore, I'm playing the Under 2.5 +120.

[RoagBettor]

Why is the line +120 then? The books don't lose and certainly they know these stats when they set the lines. It appears they're begging for money on the under with this line.

On second thought, with an over line of -160, why isn't this at o/u 3? The books are juicing it like crazy but keeping it at -2.5.

Hmmm....this is is a very interesting game and bet.

[Sportslover]

Why is the line +120 then? The books don't lose and certainly they know these stats when they set the lines. It appears they're begging for money on the under with this line.

On second thought, with an over line of -160, why isn't this at o/u 3?

Hmmm....this is is a very interesting game and bet.

You're right, it is a very interesting game and I see what you're saying, you have a good point. I'm still quite happy with the Under 2.5 though.

The only way I can see this going over 2.5 is if Portugal does all the work and scores 3 goals or more. Perhaps with the media hype about Cristiano Ronaldo missing the World Cup, people are thinking that Portugal and Ronaldo might rise to the occasion and put in a big performance to get a big win. This public perception and betting pattern might have persuaded the books to set the line +120, just a guess. There's certainly going to be a lot of interest in both Portugal's and Argentina's matches this weekend.

The other angle to look at this is that perhaps people are thinking that Portugal will try to score a lot in order to improve their goal difference in the event of them finish level on points for 2nd position. If Portugal wins their remaining 2 games and Sweden draws with Denmark and beats Albania in their final game then the 2 sides will finish level on points. As things stand, Sweden is +6 in their goal difference with Portugal at +5 just now. However, if this scenario plays out, Sweden will still be +6 after a potential draw with Denmark while Portugal will be at least +6 or +7 with a 1-0 or 2-0 win against Hungary. Then Portugal has the easier final game vs Malta so I don't goal difference will be on the minds of the Portugal players or manager.

I agree that Portugal will probably win here but I think a 1-0 or 2-0 win is most likely. If Portugal gets to 1-0 I can't see them throwing men forward and risking the possibility of leaving themselves open to a counter attack because if they drew this game it would be a disaster for them. They could go on to get that 2nd goal but they won't be playing a gung-ho attacking game against Hungary. Then, if they do get a 2nd, I can't see them having much incentive to go for a 3rd. A 2-0 scoreline gives you the win and it gives you the comfort of having a 2 goal cushion and still being in a winning position even if you make a mistake and concede. I don't think Portugal needs a 3-0 win and I think they'll struggle to get one against Hungary.

Its difficult to predict the outcome of most bets, all I'm looking for is the possibility that this bet has a 55% chance of succeeding after completing my analysis. I definately feel there is a 55% chance that this game could end Under 2.5.

[Sportslover]

1st bet of the weekend is a winner.

Southend vs Southampton Over 2.5 EV: Win

Southampton winning 3-1 away at Southend at Half Time.

Record: 1-0-0

[LinWin]

Your analysis of Portugal - Hungary seems sound to me

[TurkzZ]

good luck dude, i like the portugal play as well

[Sportslover]

Today was a good day, picking up 2 wins and 1 loss.

Gillingham vs Wycombe Over 2.5 -110: Win
Grimsby vs Burton Over 2.5 EV: Win
Portugal vs Hungary Under 2.5 +120: Loss

Gillingham vs Wycombe ended up finishing 3-2, Grismby vs Burton finished 1-2 and Portugal vs Hungary finished 3-0.

Current Record: 3-0-1 +1.91U

Your analysis of Portugal - Hungary seems sound to me

good luck dude, i like the portugal play as well

Thanks guys, unfortunately Portugal managed to get 2 goals in the last 20 minutes to give themselves a 3-0 win so we ended up losing this bet.

[Hybris]

Though loss on that Portugal over, keep up the good work

[Sportslover]

Got some more picks to add for today's action. Been doing lots of research to build up my knowledge of football outside of Europe and now I feel confident betting on some of these games so hopefully I'll be able to secure a few more winners.

Brisbane Roar vs Gold Coast United: Gold Coast United PK-110

Both Gold Coast and Brisbane are missing key players on international duty, Culina/Smeltz and Moore respectively. However, Gold Coast are also welcoming back 3 players, one of them is a pacy, skillful forward player who might be able to advantage of Moore's absence in defence for Brisbane. Even though the Gold Coast are missing Smeltz up front, they still have plenty of firepower with Minnecon and Porter up front. They won't lose much attacking ability by playing those 2 up front because they are top quality players, Gold Coast certainly has strength in depth in these attacking positions. They also welcome back a hard man type player who will be vital to their chances in a heated derby and will help give them the steel and intensity that has been lacking from their play in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, Brisbane is missing Henrique and Miller which takes away some much needed pace (Henrique) and creativity (Miller) from their play. Danny Tiatto is also missing for Brisbane today, he is a tough tackling midfielder who will certainly be missed from a midfield that is already missing Matt McKay.

The Gold Coast started the season on fire and have since fallen away quite dramatically in recent weeks. They will be desperate to prove they are still real contenders and with 3 players returning and a derby game against Brisbane, this is the perfect time for them to return to form. The Gold Coast has also already beaten Brisbane this season, 3-1 away from home so they've proven they have what it takes to beat Brisbane on their own ground already.

I think the PK-110 for Gold Coast is good value here, I think Gold Coast will win but we have the insurance of getting our stake back, if the game ends in a draw.

River Plate vs Independiente Over 2.5 -110

So far this season River Plate's matches have been averaging 2.86 goals per game and Independiente's games have been averaging 3.14 goals per game.

6 of River Plate's 8 goals have come at their own ground this season, while 2 of their 3 homes games have ended over a total of 2.5, giving their team an average of 2 goals per home game. Independiente has scored 7 goals on the road for an average of 2.33 per away game. Independiente has also scored in all of their away games this season so I feel this is definately a game where both teams can get on the scoresheet and increase the chances of the total finishing over 2.5.

Independiente are 8 points ahead of River Plate so they will go to River Plate and think they can get a positive result here. Independiente can move to within 1 point of 1st place with a win so they should be looking to try and grab all 3 points here. River Plate, however, is in awful form and they'll be desperate to get a home win in order to reverse their fortunes. With both sides desperate for 3 points, this should be a very competitive match. When both sides are competitive it often means that both teams will have chances to get on the scoresheet, which has positive implications for those betting that the match will finish over the total.

Enjoy the games and good luck if you have money on them.

[Sportslover]

Though loss on that Portugal over, keep up the good work

Cheers Hybris.

[Sportslover]

Thought I would add a link to my latest blog entry - a more detailed summary of the A-League match between Brisbane Roar and Gold Coast United. Earlier in this thread, I posted a bet on this game, Gold Coast PK-110.

Here is the link to the blog entry - http://sportslover.mysbrforum.com/bl...st-pk-110.html

[Sportslover]

Adding in another play that I've researched for today's action.

Real Betis vs Real Union Over 2.5 -105

Betis' 6 league games this season are averaging 3.17 goals and although Real Union is averaging just 2.00 per game, they have began to find their goalscoring form by scoring 5 of their 6 goals in their last 2 matches. Betis is a superior team and expect them to win here but they are leaking 1.00 goals per game and I expect them to let in one goal again today. I think Betis will win 2-1 or 3-1 so I'm playing the Over 2.5 at -105.

[kopite]

GL Sportslover. Watching the Bris/GCU now and really like the GC play. Great start to your record keeping.

[kopite]

1-0 GCU and Brisbane not playing well

[Sportslover]

GL Sportslover. Watching the Bris/GCU now and really like the GC play. Great start to your record keeping.

Thanks Kopite.

1-0 GCU and Brisbane not playing well

Happy that Gold Coast is up 1-0 at half time. At various times in the first half they've played well, however, they are looking a little bit suspect defensively, particularly when defending set pieces. Hopefully, their manager Miron Bleiberg is able to knock some sense into his defenders because if they tighten up their defence, they should win this game comfortably.

Their attacking play, their tempo and possession of the ball has been much improved since their last game against Wellington so that aspect of the match is quite pleasing. I think at one stage they had 60% possession although I think by the end of the half it was a bit lower than that. The fact that they play their 4 midfielders all in the centre allows them to control play and dominate possession, when they are playing to their potential.

Joel Porter had a fairly good game up front in the first half and the likes of Minnecon, Caravella, Robson, Anderson all gave team that extra pace and intensity that was lacking in recent weeks. Hopefully the Gold Coast can go on and seal the victory in the 2nd half.

[Sportslover]

Picked up a win just now with Gold Coast United winning 1-0 away to Brisbane Roar.

Gold Coast United PK -110: Win

Current Record: 4-0-1 +2.82u

[kopite]

Picked up a win just now with Gold Coast United winning 1-0 away to Brisbane Roar.

Gold Coast United PK -110: Win

Current Record: 4-0-1 +2.82u

[Sportslover]

Real Betis vs Real Union has just finished as a 1-1 draw so this has resulted in a loss for the Over 2.5 bet on this game.

Real Betis vs Real Union Over 2.5 -105: Loss

Current Record: 4-0-2 +1.82u

[PASS IT ON]

well done sportslover good start mate, keep it up.

[Sportslover]

well done sportslover good start mate, keep it up.

Thanks Pass It On.

Today I've picked up a 1-1 win-loss record with my 2 picks. Tranmere 0 vs Stockport 1 and River Plate 1 vs Independiente 3 were the 2 final scores.

Tranmere vs Stockport Over 2.5: Loss
River Plate vs Independiente Over 2.5: Win

Current Record: 5-0-3 +1.73u

[Sportslover]

New picks for tomorrow plus a pick from a World Cup qualifier on Wednesday.

Brighton vs Gillingham: Over 2.5 +110

Raith Rovers vs Inverness: Over 2.5 +104

Livingston vs Annan Athletic: Under 2.5 +105

Skeid vs Kongsvinger: Under 3 -103

Uruguay vs Argentina: Uruguay +155

More detailed analysis will by added to my blog later on today.

Blog entry for Uruguay vs Argentina is already posted, here is the link: http://sportslover.mysbrforum.com/bl...ina-a-win.html

Good luck to those who have wagered on these games.

[kopite]

New picks for tomorrow plus a pick from a World Cup qualifier on Wednesday.

Brighton vs Gillingham: Over 2.5 +110

Raith Rovers vs Inverness: Over 2.5 +104

Livingston vs Annan Athletic: Under 2.5 +105

Skeid vs Kongsvinger: Under 3 -103

Uruguay vs Argentina: Uruguay +155

More detailed analysis will by added to my blog later on today.

Blog entry for Uruguay vs Argentina is already posted, here is the link: http://sportslover.mysbrforum.com/bl...ina-a-win.html

Good luck to those who have wagered on these games.

Thx sports and GL to you

[Totolover1409]

Like your analysis on the Uruguay game. Tailing you

[Sportslover]

Thx sports and GL to you

Thanks kopite.

Like your analysis on the Uruguay game. Tailing you

Enjoy the game, I'm really looking forward to watching it.

[LinWin]

What's your thinking about the Skeid - Kongsvinger match ?
Skeid is already relegated and Kongsvinger is fighting for moving up a division.
The Kongsvinger - Skeid meeting ended 4-0 earlier this season.

I would rather think over 2,5 goals is more likely.

[Sportslover]

What's your thinking about the Skeid - Kongsvinger match ?
Skeid is already relegated and Kongsvinger is fighting for moving up a division.
The Kongsvinger - Skeid meeting ended 4-0 earlier this season.

I would rather think over 2,5 goals is more likely.

Here is what I have written in my blog piece, which I am currently writing just now:

Skeid’s matches this season are averaging 2.88 goals per game while Kongsvinger has a record of 3.04 goals per game. However, if we look a little more deeply, only 2 of Kongsvinger’s last 8 games have gone over 3. Looking at Skeid’s last 8 home games we can see that 5 of those games have finished with under 3 goals, 2 of them have finished with exactly 3 goals but only 1 of those 8 games has finished with over 3 goals.

Its also important to note that Skeid is bottom of the league and already relegated so they don’t have a huge incentive to go out and beat Kongsvinger. Their opponents, however, are fighting for promotion and will desperate to win this game, a win would send them top of the table. As a result of these circumstances I expect this game to be one sided, with only Kongsvinger getting on the scoreboard.

Kongsvinger managed to keep Skeid scoreless when these two sides last met, in a game that finished 4-0. I expect Kongsvinger to win but when playing away from home I don’t think they will score 4 goals. Kongsvinger has only scored more than 2 goals away from home on two occasions this season, both times scoring 3 goals. Meanwhile, Skeid has played against the top 5 teams in the league on 7 occasions this season and has only managed to register 2 goals in these games. Skeid has only scored 23 goals for the whole season, an average of just 0.88 goals per season. With nothing to play for, I find it difficult to see Skeid getting a goal here.

There’s a chance we could hit 3 goals in this game, in which case we’d get our money back, however, I can’t see this one going over 3 so I think there is value in the -103 odds that are being offered. I think a motivated Kongsvinger team will team get a victory, score a couple of goals and keep Skeid scoreless. I think this game will finish with under 3 goals.

I've already placed the bet and I'm happy with it, although I would welcome any additional analysis you have for this game.

[Sportslover]

Today's blog has been added and can be viewed from this link: http://sportslover.mysbrforum.com/bl...nder-bets.html

Enjoy.