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Weekend picks - Oct 2-4
Belgium: Cercle Brugge +120 5u
Cercle Brugge travel to Roesalare to play the league's worst team. For whatever reasons, Cercle seem to be playing better on the road. Cercle have 2 wins in 4 road games, scoring 8 and conceding 4. The hosts are without a win, drawing one and losing 3 of their 4 home games. They've scored 4 and conceded 11 at home. So you do the math. A team that has scored 8 and conceded 4 on the road is visiting one that has scored 4 and conceded 11 at home. While the Over looks guaranteed as do most Roesalare games, the value lies with Cercle Brugge ML.
EPL: Burnley +120 3u
Burnley is an interesting team. They're yet to draw a game. They've won ALL their home games and lost ALL their road games. This is a team that knows their survival in the EPL will depend largely on their home record. At home, they've humiliated Man Utd, disgraced Everton and thrashed Sunderland. I have a feeling that Burnley at home will be a cash machine this season. Birmingham is a decent team, no doubt. But I think they'll find the going tough in the lions' den. Let's ride Burnley at home until the wheels fall off.
Spain: Valladolid +140 2u
This is a purely situational play. Valladolid are still without a home win as they lost their 2 home games to Osasuna and Valencia. They'll now have the privilege of hosting Atletico Bilbao. Bilbao have 1 win in 2 road games. That win came against a relegation-bound Xerex and it was a mere 1-0 win. They lost their other road game at Tenerife. Now, Bilbao played a Europa game in Germany on Thursday and will be on the road again on Sunday to play a Valladolid team that's hungry for a first home win. The good thing about Valladolid is that they scored in the home games they lost. So we're confident of their ability to score. From a situational point of view, we have a well-rested home team hosting a Bilbao that'll be playing their 3rd game in 9 days. Let's go with the well-rested home team at this generous price.
One more addition:
Spain: Sevilla +265 1u
Let me start with a quote from Guillem Balague, a respected La Liga analyst:
"I favour Sevilla in this game. I think they've got a fantastic team that pressures high up with lots of intensity in defence and attack. They counter attack, they've got good wingers and up front they've probably got one of the best trios in Fredi Kanoute, Luis Fabiano and Negredo.
Although Real Madrid have got very good defensive stats, they are deceiving because they actually concede lots of chances, it's just that they haven't played against teams that have got the power up front that Sevilla have.
I think Sevilla will win this one."
http://www.skysports.com/opinion/sto...598250,00.html
Four things have encouraged me to make this play:
1) None of the L10 meetings between these sides has ended in a draw. So we expect there'll be a winner in this one
2) Sevilla are 6-0-4 in this series and now hear this: Sevilla are 4-0-1 at home against Real
3) Just like Real, Sevilla go into this game with a perfect record in all games played this season
4) Many of Real's goals have been due to the sheer brilliance of Ronaldo - either through individual runs, free kicks or Ronaldo-created penalties. Even if Ronaldo played n this game, my money will still be on Sevilla, but the good news is that he's a doubt. That means even if he plays, he won't be at 100%.
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Originally Posted by regdent
