[bing]

Pretty excited with the beginning of the brazilian leagues. Here´s some info that can help u guys with your bets.

The strongest teams from Brazil are in the Southeast of the country. That includes teams like São Paulo, Corinthiians, Santos, Flamengo, Fluminense, Vasco, Botafogo, Atletico **, Cruzeiro, Internacional RS and Gremio. The champion will most likely be one of these teams. Palmeiras would be included in this list, but fortunately they´re in Serie B this year and I expect to profit from their misfortune!!!


Usually, teams that are competing in the Libertadores Cup don´t perform well in Serie A. That happens because being Libertadores Champions and having the chance to play the World Final against Champions League Champions is the ultimate goal for all teams in Brazil. So, these teams won´t play with their full squad and even if they do, concentration is not there. If one team manages to reach the finals they´ll probably have lost 10 rounds and that usually blows their chances to win the title. It happened to Corinthians, Internacional, FLuminense, São Paulo...etc...no exceptions!!!
Right now, Atletico ** and Fluminense are the only brazilians representatives in the tournament, so if they´re still in the competition don´t expect much from these teams in the earlier rounds.


Home factor is really important in this competition. Specially to the teams in the Northeast of Brazil, such as Vitoria, Bahia and Nautico. With much less investment and poor quality teams, their chances to win points against the BIG teams resumes to their home games. That is because the crowd really support their teams and the weather is really hot!!! Plus, and most importante factor is that field conditions are terrible in these places...BUT...that has all changed due to the World Cup that will be held in Brazil next year, so Stadiums have been renewed and Field conditions will be nearly perfect in every match this year!!! So I don´t know if field advantage will be as strong as it used to for some teams, specially the ones in the Northeast!!!


Also, after the 5th round there will be a break to the tournament due to the Confederations Cup. That is a problem because it usually takes 4 to 5 rounds to understand the teams and their potential and trends...and after the break, expect teams to be very different, because the clubs will be losing players and also buying new players...That can really change things...

Later I´ll be posting info and tips for the first round!!

[Akatana]

Hey, Thanks for this valuable info. I am also very much looking forward to Serie A & b respectively. Looking forward to more of your posts and analysis. Thanks

[tg09]

Looking forward to your tips. Love watching this league as there seems to be a lot of fast, attacking play.

[bing]

Thanks Guys!!! Let´s have a good season!!!

I´ll be risking only 1 unit for each play in this first round. Trying to be wise...

Vasco x Portuguesa


Vasco da Gama is one of the most traditionals teams in Rio, but they´re in deep financial trouble. They finished 5th last year but this years team is so much weaker. Vasco lost Juninho, Diego Souza and recently their best defender Dedé. The only star to this team is coach Paulo Autuori, who won the World Club Championship with Sao Paulo in 2005. Vasco struggled during the Rio League and they have no money to improve this team. Their best chances of goals are with Equatorian Carlos Tenorio and playing in their stadium (Sao Januario) is always difficult to the visiting team.


Portuguesa just became Champions of Serie B in the Paulista league. Don´t be impressed, that just means they were relegated last year with a pathetic performance in the Paulista Championship but they still managed to survive and stay for another year in Serie A. Their goal for this year is the same, just play well enough to survive for another year. Key players are veterans Souza and Correa. Argentinian Canete has joined the team but he won´t be playing in the first round.


Portuguesa´s goal for this match is to gain at least a point. I don´t expect them to take many risks in this game and Vasco hasn´t played for a long time since they were eliminated from Rio´s Cup. Playing over or under in this game is really hard to predict but if I had to choose I would go with the under here. Vasco hasn´t played an official game for over a month now. Eventhough history shows that VAsco has won 27 times against only 4 wins from Portuguesa, I´ll be backing Portuguesa +1, just because they´re in better shape than Vasco.


PICK: Portuguesa +1 @1,675 Bet365

[Akatana]

First of all thank you very much for the very educative insight. Just to make sure your pick is a +1 Asian-Handicap for Portuguesa correct? and if so why are the odds of 1,675 way smaller than i'm seeing on other books? maybe i'm missing something here??? Thanks

[bing]

Yeah it´s Asian Handicap +1 for Portuguesa. If Portuguesa loses by 1 goal than my bet is refunded. The odds are from Bet 365. Maybe Pinnacle might have better odds but they seem to be having some problems in the site. I couldn´t access my account there.

If you´re seeing much greater odds, maybe it´s European Handicap and that would be an entire different bet.

[Akatana]

First of all thank you very much for the very educative insight. Just to make sure your pick is a +1 Asian-Handicap for Portuguesa correct? and if so why are the odds of 1,675 way smaller than i'm seeing on other books? maybe i'm missing something here??? Thanks

This is interesting, the Portuguesa +1 AH on SBOBET is @ 1.730 and on pinnacle the +0.5 and +1 AH is @ 2.020 and on Ladbrokes +0.5 and +1 is @ 1.880

[Akatana]

Yeah it´s Asian Handicap +1 for Portuguesa. If Portuguesa loses by 1 goal than my bet is refunded. The odds are from Bet 365. Maybe Pinnacle might have better odds but they seem to be having some problems in the site. I couldn´t access my account there.

If you´re seeing much greater odds, maybe it´s European Handicap and that would be an entire different bet.

Thank's, i was actually aware of it being an Asian Handicap, those European handicaps are a total scam imo. I just wasn't sure why the odd's you got from bet365 was much lower compared to other decent books.

[bing]

This is interesting, the Portuguesa +1 AH on SBOBET is @ 1.730 and on pinnacle the +0.5 and +1 AH is @ 2.020 and on Ladbrokes +0.5 and +1 is @ 1.880

Yeah +0,5 and +1 has the same value in Bet 365. I thought of that but just wanted to be safer since the first round is very hard to predict.

[Vaughany]

Pretty excited with the beginning of the brazilian leagues. Here´s some info that can help u guys with your bets.

The strongest teams from Brazil are in the Southeast of the country. That includes teams like São Paulo, Corinthiians, Santos, Flamengo, Fluminense, Vasco, Botafogo, Atletico **, Cruzeiro, Internacional RS and Gremio. The champion will most likely be one of these teams. Palmeiras would be included in this list, but fortunately they´re in Serie B this year and I expect to profit from their misfortune!!!


Usually, teams that are competing in the Libertadores Cup don´t perform well in Serie A. That happens because being Libertadores Champions and having the chance to play the World Final against Champions League Champions is the ultimate goal for all teams in Brazil. So, these teams won´t play with their full squad and even if they do, concentration is not there. If one team manages to reach the finals they´ll probably have lost 10 rounds and that usually blows their chances to win the title. It happened to Corinthians, Internacional, FLuminense, São Paulo...etc...no exceptions!!!
Right now, Atletico ** and Fluminense are the only brazilians representatives in the tournament, so if they´re still in the competition don´t expect much from these teams in the earlier rounds.


Home factor is really important in this competition. Specially to the teams in the Northeast of Brazil, such as Vitoria, Bahia and Nautico. With much less investment and poor quality teams, their chances to win points against the BIG teams resumes to their home games. That is because the crowd really support their teams and the weather is really hot!!! Plus, and most importante factor is that field conditions are terrible in these places...BUT...that has all changed due to the World Cup that will be held in Brazil next year, so Stadiums have been renewed and Field conditions will be nearly perfect in every match this year!!! So I don´t know if field advantage will be as strong as it used to for some teams, specially the ones in the Northeast!!!


Also, after the 5th round there will be a break to the tournament due to the Confederations Cup. That is a problem because it usually takes 4 to 5 rounds to understand the teams and their potential and trends...and after the break, expect teams to be very different, because the clubs will be losing players and also buying new players...That can really change things...

Later I´ll be posting info and tips for the first round!!

yeah Nautico were ridiculous last season with their home and away form! Won 13, drew 3, lost 3 at home, and only won 1, drew 4 and lost 14 away from home! 3rd best defensive record at home in the league after Sao Paulo, and Gremio, and scored fewest goals away from home in league. Will be looking to fade them when they play away from home for sure and they are playing away at aforementioned Gremio on Sat so may have to play Gremio -1 A.H. @ -125.. what you reckon? I need to look more in to the teams tho (especially Nautico) and see if they've improved their squad significantly since last year, but I know they got knocked out in semi's of State CHampionship by Serie C side Santa Cruz! Gremio obviously have some great options and a lot of quality experienced players like Dida, Cris, Fabio Aurelio, Elano, Ze Roberto, Kleber, Barcos, Vargas, and Welliton. According to Pinnacle (and soccerway) this game is being played on neutral ground though and not at Gremio Arena which could be a factor? Obviously still in Rio Grande but might not be the same for Gremio as last season.

Ponte PReta are also a side that are very hard to beat on their ground, but are very average away from home. Only won 3 on their travels last season, and only lost 3 at home, so always good for a draw-no-bet play on them when they play at home. Althought they actually where also the only team to go unbeaten away from home in the Paulista, but then they only won 3 out of the 9 games. Nonetheless, they are a side that are often under-rated.

With the sides that got promoted, expect Goais to be difficult to beat at home but no so good away as well, and they've kept key striker Walter as well. Vitoria also tend to be decent at home but poor away.

[Vaughany]

I missed out on getting on Coritiba early as well. Been hammered now but they should get a least a draw at home to Mineiro who will have mostly reserves playing as they had the big CL game against Tijuana in Mexico last night.

Expecting Cruzeiro to be a challenger this season

[Vaughany]

I believe Bahia are having some issues as well off the pitch

[bing]

Vitoria x Internacional So Vitoria has just been Bahia State Champs, with humiliating victories over their rivals BAhia. They´ve beaten them with a 7-3 in the first leg and became champs with a simple 1-1 draw. But reality came to Vitoria and they suffered a very disappointing elimination in Copa do Brasil against a team that their name is better known as a Samba school rather than a football team, Salgueiro. Internacional has one of the best squads with players such as Diego Forlan and D´Alessandro. Striker Lendro Damião is not playing this game, cause he might be negotiated. In his place Rafael Moura will be the substitue. Inter´s coach is Dunga the former coach to the brazilian national squad. They recently won their State League Game will be held in the newly built Fonte Nova Arena. As I said earlier, playing in the Northeast is always a difficult task for the the Southern teams. Inter last victory against Vitoria in their home was back in 2003. Recently Inter had to play against Santa Cruz a traditional team that is located in the Northeast of Brazil for Copa do Brasil and the result was 0-0. Conditions in the old Fonte Nova Arena were terrible, but now it´s just a new stadium with a great field, this might be an advantage for Inter. Eventhough I said earlier that predicting an over or under in the first round is too hard, I´ll have to go with the under in this game. Top Striker for Inter Leandro Damião is out, the substitue Rafael Moura hasn´t scored since march and Forlan is not the same player he used to be. Inter is very strong defensively. Vitoria scored 7 goals against a pathetic BAhia but failed to score more than 1 against a mediocre Salgueiro team. Tough game and under seem to be the best option. PICK: Under 2,5 @1,75

[bing]

You´re right Vaughany!!! Nautico and Bahia sucks!!! Gremio AH -1, if it wasn´t the first round I would pound it!!! Gremio is not playing well but Nautico should be playing serie C!!!

[Vaughany]

Vitoria x Internacional So Vitoria has just been Bahia State Champs, with humiliating victories over their rivals BAhia. They´ve beaten them with a 7-3 in the first leg and became champs with a simple 1-1 draw. But reality came to Vitoria and they suffered a very disappointing elimination in Copa do Brasil against a team that their name is better known as a Samba school rather than a football team, Salgueiro. Internacional has one of the best squads with players such as Diego Forlan and D´Alessandro. Striker Lendro Damião is not playing this game, cause he might be negotiated. In his place Rafael Moura will be the substitue. Inter´s coach is Dunga the former coach to the brazilian national squad. They recently won their State League Game will be held in the newly built Fonte Nova Arena. As I said earlier, playing in the Northeast is always a difficult task for the the Southern teams. Inter last victory against Vitoria in their home was back in 2003. Recently Inter had to play against Santa Cruz a traditional team that is located in the Northeast of Brazil for Copa do Brasil and the result was 0-0. Conditions in the old Fonte Nova Arena were terrible, but now it´s just a new stadium with a great field, this might be an advantage for Inter. Eventhough I said earlier that predicting an over or under in the first round is too hard, I´ll have to go with the under in this game. Top Striker for Inter Leandro Damião is out, the substitue Rafael Moura hasn´t scored since march and Forlan is not the same player he used to be. Inter is very strong defensively. Vitoria scored 7 goals against a pathetic BAhia but failed to score more than 1 against a mediocre Salgueiro team. Tough game and under seem to be the best option. PICK: Under 2,5 @1,75

yeah was thinking about the under or Internacional DNB

[Vaughany]

Do you know why the Gremio game is not on their own ground?

[bing]

Do you know why the Gremio game is not on their own ground?

Gremio has one game suspension because of their last game against Inter last year. So as a punishment they can´t play in their own stadium this time. Don´t think it´s a big deal.

[onemoregoal]

Nice to see you back, mate

[bing]

Nice to see you back, mate

thanks onemoregoal!!! Nice to be back!!!

[Vaughany]

Gremio has one game suspension because of their last game against Inter last year. So as a punishment they can´t play in their own stadium this time. Don´t think it´s a big deal.

ok cheers. They are still allowed fans tho aren't they so shouldnt be too big a deal

[Vaughany]

This was last season's Over/under figures...

#	Team	MP	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	>7	AVG
1	Coritiba	38	1	6	6	13	7	3	1	1	0	2.97
2	Figueirense	38	2	6	11	3	10	3	2	1	0	2.92
3	Botafogo	38	3	4	10	6	8	6	1	0	0	2.89
4	Atlético GO	38	2	6	10	9	6	4	0	1	0	2.74
5	Atlético Mineiro	38	3	11	7	4	5	5	2	1	0	2.66
6	Cruzeiro	38	3	6	11	7	7	3	1	0	0	2.58
7	São Paulo	38	2	11	8	8	4	2	2	1	0	2.53
8	Náutico	38	5	7	6	13	2	2	2	1	0	2.50
9	Sport Recife	38	3	7	11	8	5	2	2	0	0	2.50
10	Santos	38	7	3	10	6	9	1	2	0	0	2.47
11	Fluminense	38	2	8	11	8	5	4	0	0	0	2.47
12	Palmeiras	38	1	9	8	13	6	1	0	0	0	2.45
13	Corinthians	38	2	7	15	7	4	2	1	0	0	2.37
14	Grêmio	38	5	8	8	7	8	0	2	0	0	2.34
15	Vasco da Gama	38	3	8	12	7	5	2	1	0	0	2.34
16	Flamengo	38	4	10	11	5	3	4	1	0	0	2.24
17	Internacional	38	6	8	9	7	4	3	1	0	0	2.21
18	Ponte Preta	38	6	10	4	11	5	2	0	0	0	2.13
19	Portuguesa	38	7	3	16	6	4	1	1	0	0	2.11
20	Bahia	38	5	8	12	6	7	0	0	0	0	2.05

[Akatana]

Regarding Gremio i think they are allowed fan's and i also agree that overall it shouldn't make a huge difference. I'm leaning towards Gremio, wether i'll take the -1 is yet to be decided, Bing is right about the uncertainty of the first round, it should be good though.

[bing]

These are my leans for the rest of the games. I´ll probably just play 1 unit in each of them....I´ll decide tomorrow...

Corinthians x Botafogo - Botafogo +0,5
Corinthians haven´t showed much till now and Botafogo is a well adjusted team and always plays well against Corinthians i as visitors. They haven´t lost last 7 games as visitors to Corinthians. I see a 1-1 draw. Over 2,2,5 seems to be good too.

Criciuma x Bahia - Criciuma ML
If Criciuma wants to survive in Serie A they have to win as many points as they can at home, where they´re a tough team to beat. Bahia is a traditional team but they´ve been a disaster in the state games, and they are a fade away team when they play away.

Gremio x Nautico - Gremio AH-1
Gremio is not playing that well. Players just don´t have the chemistry yet. Still They´re very strong at home and Nautico is just in a bad shape. This is the number 1 team to be relegated IMO.

Ponte Preta x Sao Paulo - Sao Paulo ML
Ponte Preta showed a lot of weakness playing against Corinthians in the quarter finals of Paulista. Sao Paulo players have been grounded by the president and have been in concentration since being eliminated from Libertadores. Seven players have been sent away. Ganso won´t play, cause he´s injured and will get married during the weekend. Osvaldo will be back and some new players have been acquired. I expect a lot of energy from Sao Paulo in this game.

Santos x Flamengo - Draw
Both teams are equally bad at the moment...Santos has better players, but Flamengo will have the support from the crowd. This game is going to be played in Brasilia. Draw just seems to be the best play.

Cruzeiro x Goias - Cruzeiro ML
Not much to say. Cruzeiro is the best team here and they have good strikers with DAgoberto and Borges. They´ve beaten Atletico ** last game and I don´t believe Goias can do much as visitors.

Won´t be playing Atletico and Fluminense games.

[Vaughany]

Seem like solid plays to me!

[bing]

I don´t expect much from this first round, but the best plays in my opinion are;

1. Gremio

2. Cruzeiro

3. Criciuma

really like the under in the Vitoria and Inter game...but I don´t have that confidence yet.

[Akatana]

Thanks, keep it up Bing. Any thought's on the Palmeiras game?

[bing]

Thanks, keep it up Bing. Any thought's on the Palmeiras game?

Atletico Go is a tough opponent to Palmeiras and if I had to bet I would bet over 2,5 or both teams to score.

But Serie B is terrible, if you watch one of their games you´ll never watch soccer again!!! LOL!!! GAmes are just that ugly!!! I´ll definetely have to wait some more rounds in Serie B to place a bet. Palmeiras should be a banker in this league, but I´ll just have to see them perform first.

[Vaughany]

yeah agree, BTTS. Both should be title contenders

[Akatana]

Atletico Go is a tough opponent to Palmeiras and if I had to bet I would bet over 2,5 or both teams to score.

But Serie B is terrible, if you watch one of their games you´ll never watch soccer again!!! LOL!!! GAmes are just that ugly!!! I´ll definetely have to wait some more rounds in Serie B to place a bet. Palmeiras should be a banker in this league, but I´ll just have to see them perform first.

Ok now i have to watch this game

[easyliving]

thanks for the info will read this in the morning

[Akatana]

Hi guy's.
I watched the Serie B match between BkofAma and Chapecoense last night. I watched the full match every minute of it carefully, mainly because i want to know the teams better and also cause i like Brazilian action ( football that is & the chikas lol) and thought i give my take on it since on this thread we are focusing on those leagues.
I have designed a rating system for matches that gives accurate performance weight's to both defense and offense efficiencies for both teams, i would not go into details about it now because i have to tweak it more, i have more to do with it and it's not complete yet, the only downside to it is that one has to watch the match closely to avoid bias on the ratings, but for me its worth it.

To give a quick summary of the match, i have to say that in the first 25 minutes or so it was pretty even with both side's trying to find some attacking space and both defended well, but leaning towards the end of the first half Chapecoense started causing some problems for BkofAma and from then on both defensively and offensively they were on top. The first goal was a fantastic clean counter-attack by Chapecoense. The 2nd half wasn't all that different, except Chapecoense creating even more problems for BkofAma. BkofAma did manage to create a few chances but they were not that threatening and the Chapecoense defense did really well to hold them back from creating any dangerous situations in front of goal. I was quite impressed with the speed of these guys, they sure had a lot pace, the more productive direct plays coming from Chapecoense of course. I have to say that i dont know these players very well but i am trying to get to know them. But overall Chapecoense did very well they kept pounding BkofAma's defence and exploiting them and the scoreline shows that (1-4)
And according to my in-play rating Chapecoense came out on top both defensively and offensively, some good finishes as well no lausy goals. and the one and only goal that BkofAma scored in the end was due to Chapecoense becoming a bit complacent after going 4-0 up and the keeper should've clearly saved it, so i wont give any credit to them for that single goal they scored, i know it's only the first round but its beneficial for us to get to see how these teams perform from these early round and pick up on their consistency. Hope this help's
I will be doing more accurate analysis of these games as soon as i complete my rating model, which will give much better indications of tactic's/strategy/position-play as well.

Edit: i typed B-o-a but it automatically changed it, and i tried fixing it but it kept doing the same thing, so sorry this time round i cant be bothered to fix this stupidity. i don't know why the Fck it's doing that.

[bing]

Hi guy's.
I watched the Serie B match between BkofAma and Chapecoense last night. I watched the full match every minute of it carefully, mainly because i want to know the teams better and also cause i like Brazilian action ( football that is & the chikas lol) and thought i give my take on it since on this thread we are focusing on those leagues.
I have designed a rating system for matches that gives accurate performance weight's to both defense and offense efficiencies for both teams, i would not go into details about it now because i have to tweak it more, i have more to do with it and it's not complete yet, the only downside to it is that one has to watch the match closely to avoid bias on the ratings, but for me its worth it.

To give a quick summary of the match, i have to say that in the first 25 minutes or so it was pretty even with both side's trying to find some attacking space and both defended well, but leaning towards the end of the first half Chapecoense started causing some problems for BkofAma and from then on both defensively and offensively they were on top. The first goal was a fantastic clean counter-attack by Chapecoense. The 2nd half wasn't all that different, except Chapecoense creating even more problems for BkofAma. BkofAma did manage to create a few chances but they were not that threatening and the Chapecoense defense did really well to hold them back from creating any dangerous situations in front of goal. I was quite impressed with the speed of these guys, they sure had a lot pace, the more productive direct plays coming from Chapecoense of course. I have to say that i dont know these players very well but i am trying to get to know them. But overall Chapecoense did very well they kept pounding BkofAma's defence and exploiting them and the scoreline shows that (1-4)
And according to my in-play rating Chapecoense came out on top both defensively and offensively, some good finishes as well no lausy goals. and the one and only goal that BkofAma scored in the end was due to Chapecoense becoming a bit complacent after going 4-0 up and the keeper should've clearly saved it, so i wont give any credit to them for that single goal they scored, i know it's only the first round but its beneficial for us to get to see how these teams perform from these early round and pick up on their consistency. Hope this help's
I will be doing more accurate analysis of these games as soon as i complete my rating model, which will give much better indications of tactic's/strategy/position-play as well.

Edit: i typed B-o-a but it automatically changed it, and i tried fixing it but it kept doing the same thing, so sorry this time round i cant be bothered to fix this stupidity. i don't know why the Fck it's doing that.

Nice Akatana. Every insight helps.

[bing]

I have some leans for Serie B today...

Joinville @2,10

ABC @1,90

Icasa -0,25 @2,05

Guaratingueta x America Mineiro - Over 2,5 @1,80

[Akatana]

I did a parlay: internacional (+0.0,+0.5) joinville DNB , icasa or draw (double chance)

[Akatana]

I did a parlay: internacional (+0.0,+0.5) joinville DNB , icasa or draw (double chance)

My first Brazilian Parlay of the campaign cashed. I will be getting back on the Brazilian action tomorrow again. What i enjoyed was watching the Internacional game, all i can say is wow this is the type of football that get's my juices flowing and this is why i was so excited about the Brazilian campaign getting started. What a game! Inter kind of screwed up in the beginning but then pretty much ran the show yet being on their toes at all times, this is lethal stuff they couldn't get comfortable too much, if they did they were going to get screwed again. Overall exciting and intense game. Looking forward to more wonderful Brazilian football tomorrow regardless of bet's.

I also have to thank Bing with this great thread and his solid information and vaughany as well. With unattractive european football out of the way, this is going to be my home from now, will be very focused on Brazil. And very solid plays Bing, looking forward for much more to come. Bol