[Wilforth]

Sweden: Gefle +210 LOSS

Are my crazy? Gefle have lost ALL their L3 games while Malmo have 2 wins and a draw in the same interval. Malmo seem to be on a roll right now, scoring a whopping 7 goals in their L2 while conceding only one goal. Two things should play to our advantage here:

1) Gefle was shutout in their last home game and each time they've been shutout at home, they've won their next home game by a 2-0 margin. What does that mean? After being shutout at home , they've not only scored in their next home game but have also shutout the visitors.

2) Malmo comes into this game after their biggest win of the season. They beat Elfsborg by a staggering 5-0 margin in their last game. The records show that each time Malmo have scored 3 goals or more in a game, they score no more than one goal in their next game. That trend is also generally common in soccer. Whenever a team scores in one game, about 2 to 3 goals more than their average goals per game, expect a correction in their next game. Malmo are averaging no more than 2 goals per game. After scoring 5 goals in their last game, one expects a scoring correction and a meltdown on their part in today's game.

On the strength of the above points, one expects no less than 2 goals from Gefle and no more than 1 goal from Malmo. So while many bettors will be expecting an easy win for Malmo, my prediction for this game is a 2-0 or 2-1 win for Gefle.

Tail with caution.

[han6]

It seems a carzy play. I don't agree any of your point. I took Malmo pk, -0.5 with plus money yesterday.

[INVINCIBLE]

Too theoretical my friend.
I can draw you a parallel analogy of how San Marino can win Germany.

Anyway best of luck

[Hybris]

I wish you BOL but I think this game is a pass for me.

[Wilforth]

It seems a carzy play. I don't agree any of your point. I took Malmo pk, -0.5 with plus money yesterday.

You mustn't agree with my points. I don't post picks so that people will agree with them. I post picks so that people can as well evaluate them. I've had to go back on my picks a couple of times based on the feedback I get from other folks.

In the case of the Gefle/Malmo game, the 2 points I've made are consistent with the records. You may check the stats for the Swedish league at vitibet.com.

On the surface, a Malmo win looks like a no-brainer, but it shouldn't be lost on us that in the reverse fixture, this same Gefle did shutout Malmo. If Gefle could shutout Malmo on the road, there's no reason they shouldn't be able to duplicate the same feat at home.

Gefle are now 0-3 in their L3, which is their longest losing streak so far. By the law of averages, a Gefle loss today is highly improbable. We shouldn't also forget the fact that even with Malmo's last 2 wins, they still have the same number of wins (8) as Gefle. In the standings, only one point separates Malmo from Gefle. So it's not as if Malmo are so much of a better team than Gefle. In any case, we'll know the outcome of today's game in a few hours' time.

[cro]

gefle losing 0-2

soccer is different to other sports, you cant look at things that way.

[Wilforth]

This one was a really bad pick. Gefle are really in a funk. So Malmo are now for real. Up Malmo.