[Tenver]

From trying to make a living at sportsbetting and also betting on live betting I will try post some of my pre-bets here to see if they actually make a positive profit and if so would be worth tailing for anyone. fingers crossed

Bookmaker for odds is Bet365. Unit size is 1-5.

11th May
Aston Villa - Chelsea. O 2.5 goals at odds 1.66/-152. 3 units.
Aston Villa - Chelsea. Chelsea W at odds 1.85/-118. 1 unit.
Man City - Wigan. U 3.5 goals at odds 1.5/-200. 1 unit.
Juventus - Cagliari. Juventus win to 0 at odds 2.2/+120. 2 units.

Good Luck

Edit: Two more added for today

FC Porto - Benfica. O 2.5 goals at odds 1.80/-125. 2 units.
Marseille - Toulouse. U 2.5 goals at odds 1.72/-139. 1 unit.

[Tenver]

11th May result:
Record: 4-2-0, profit 0.58 units.

12th May plays:
Stoke - Tottenham. Tottenham W. Odds 1.9/-111. 1 unit.
Aab - Brøndby (Danish Superliga). Draw. Odds 3.4/+240. 2 units.
Aab - Brøndby. Both to score. Odds 1.57/-175. 2 units.
Rayo Vallecano - Valencia. O 2.5 goals. Odds 1.7/-143. 1 unit.
Man Utd. - Swansea. Man Utd. -1 to win 3-way handicap. Odds 1.66/-152. 1 unit.

EDIT: Adding bit of a blind pick based on tip,
Roda - Heerenveen. Heereveen win. Odds 2.05/+105. 3 units.

And trying the easy pick AH under 2 goals in Chievo - Torino, hoping it'll at most 0-0 or 1-1. If it ends 1-1 then I'll get my money back.
Chievo - Torino. AH under 2 goals. Odds 1.825/-121. 1 unit.

As well as Valencia to beat Vallecano. Now that's for today, now to live betting .
Rayo Vallecano - Valencia. Valencia win. Odds 2/+100. 1 unit.

[Tenver]

Overview:
Record: 9-4-1, profit 7.17 units

13th May plays:
AC Horsens - Silkeborg (Danish Superliga). AH -0.5 AC Horsens win. Odds 1.925/-108.11. 1 unit.
Varese - Crotone (Serie B). U 2.5 goals. Odds 2/+100. 1 unit.
Rec de Huelva - Hercules (Segunda Division). U 2.5 goals. Odds 1.61/-164. 3 units.

Maybe more tomorrow, hope to cash a bit on those U 2.5 goals games. All 4 teams in the games like to play U 2.5 a lot! Varese is sure to try to defend their good position by being happy with a small lead and good defense! Rec de Huelva - Hercules seem to play over 1.5 goals much more than U 2.5 goals + neither relegation or promotion in sight. Fingers' x'ed.

EDIT: Also added,
Brighton - Crystal Palace. O 2.5 goals. Odds 2.15/+115. 2 unit.

The second game of the Championship promotion play-offs. The obvious play would be under 2.5 goals which is atm. a favorite at 1.66, but I think that if there is ever a game where these two teams would be increasing their usual goal amounts against each other it would be in a game like this. The first game ended 0-0 - which is typical for the first one of these Championship Play-offs, because neither team wants to give the other too much of a lead and bare oneself too much - but the second one I could well see going over 2.5 goals simply because if you are in a losing position in the match (which one teams becomes after the first goal, then anything else but at least one goal is meaningless). Basically, the more goals that are scored by one team, the more incentive the other team has to play more risky. Could well see some late-game goals either increasing the score or getting the overall win. We saw it with Watford - Leicester. Careful first game - much more goals and risk the second game. To the losing team, it doesn't matter whether it ends with a negative score of -1, -2 or -3 (worst case scenario), but everything is won by scoring at least once one goal has come. The 0-0 full time result may happen, but I deem unlikely enough to be worth playing O 2.5 goals. None of the team has any use of a small loss vs. a large loss. The only thing that matters to them is the total goal score and the win/loss from that (which is also a good thing for this bet that it ended 0-0, because if Crystal Palace scores just 1, then Brighton has to score two more than them to make it through, ie. the 1-1 result is as useless for Brighton as the 0-1 is. Therefore, in the scenario of 1-1 score, Brighton will play as if they are losing and play more offensive and risky hopefully leading to more goals). GL. May not win, but I see the value in it there and what the heck, will play 2 units, just because the incentive to score becomes so high once and if a goal comes. If there was ever a game to play O 2.5 goals with these teams against each other, this is it.

[easyliving]

promising start but I've never been a fan of betting totals side bets are usually safer

[stemellor]

Good luck today with your picks. Excellent results yesterday.

Might well tail the over in the Brighton Palace game. Think you're spot on with your assessment. No point playing defensively if you need to qualify

[Tenver]

Overview:
Record 12-5-1, profit 8,925 units

14th May:

Well, the two EPL games are the chosen ones for today. Not finding too many good bets in them, except for Man City dominance and perhaps under 2.5 goals, but nonetheless will be playing a double consisting of both Arsenal and Wigan to score (at fine odds 1,72) and Man City - Reading to go over 2.5 cards. It's just one of those games where a lot of frustration might come out from City's side and Reading could easily get a booking or two just by being uncareful around offensive City players or using the "handbrake". 1-2 cards either way and the O 2.5 cards is done.


Arsenal - Wigan. Both teams to score. Odds 1.72/-139. 1 unit.
Reading - Man City. O 2.5 cards. Odds 2/+100. 3 units.
Reading - Man City. Reading AH +1.5. Odds 1.525/-190. 2 units.

The reason it will be a parlay is just because that there doesn't seem much other reliable or valuable bets to play in Arsenal - Wigan and who knows how Man City will respond (the usual 0-1/0-2 or things are gonna go bad again 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-0 etc?.), so because of these two bets which I would think have a pretty similar chance to happen and are coming at fine odds, I'll give it a 2 unit parlay to reduce the loss if it goes bad. The cards play is pretty good atm. at Bet365 giving odds 2 for O 2.5 cards. City players gotta have some frustration inside them that will come as goals or hard tackles leading to cards. Reading can easily get a card or two just being too slow on the tackle or making too many small tackles on Dzeko/Tevez players etc.

EDIT: On further thought, playing the parlay double with an odds below 2 in it will just be shooting myself in the foot and get lower total odds than if both are played as single, so they will instead be played as singles. And adding a bit extra units to the plays just for the hell of it.

And adding Reading with AH +1.5 to the plays - Man City's bad form has become a fashion. I find it unlikely that Man City will win with 2 goals right now.