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- Adding Ireland and England games
Friday, May 3:
CZECH GAMBRINUS LIGA
JIHLAVA VS. DUKLA PRAGUE - Under 2.5 @ 1.78 (2.57 units to win 2 units)
SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
ANGELHOLMS VS. SUNDSVALL - Under 2.5 @ 1.97 (1.03 units to win 1 unit)
IRELAND DIVISION 1
DROGHEDA VS. BOHEMIANS - Under 2.5 @ 1.83 (1.21 units to win 1 unit)
ENGLAND LEAGUE 1
SHEFFIELD UNITED VS. YEOVIL TOWN - Under 2.5 @ 1.74 (2.71 units to win 2 units)
I'm going to keep track of my high risk "Under 3.5 Goals" model results separately...
Friday, May 3 (Under 3.5 Goals):
IRELAND PREMIER LEAGUE
SHAMROCK VS. SLIGO - Under 3.5 @ 1.22 (4.55 units to win 1 unit)
Friday Results:
Standard Plays: 3-0-1 (+3.79 units)
Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 1-0 (+1 unit)
Originally Posted by KATCHASE
Record (Standard Plays): 22-0-15 (+6.19 units)
1 Unit Plays: 11-0-9 (-0.24 units)
2 Unit Plays: 11-0-6 (+6.43 units)
Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 1-0 (+1 unit)
Nice work again. Your 2 unit plays are looking really solid.
You are a machine. Thx for the cash
Thanks guys...And best of luck with your weekend plays.
Monday, May 6:
JAPAN J-LEAGUE
OMIYA ARDIJA VS. HIROSHIMA - Under 2.5 @ 1.79 (2.53 units to win 2 units)
SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
VARNAMO VS. BRAGE - Under 2.5 @ 1.82 (1.22 units to win 1 unit)
Monday, May 6 (Under 3.5 Goals):
JAPAN J-LEAGUE DIVISION 2
EHIME VS. TOCHIGI - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)
RUSSIA DIVISION 1
MET. KUZBASS VS. BALTIKA - Under 3.5 @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)
ARGENTINA PRIMERA DIVISION
ALL BOYS VS. ESTUDIANTES L.P. - Under 3.5 @ 1.17 (5.88 units to win 1 unit)
- Adding Oita game
Monday, May 6:
JAPAN J-LEAGUE
OMIYA ARDIJA VS. HIROSHIMA - Under 2.5 @ 1.79 (2.53 units to win 2 units)
SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
VARNAMO VS. BRAGE - Under 2.5 @ 1.82 (1.22 units to win 1 unit)
JAPAN J-LEAGUE
OITA VS. TOSU - Under 2.5 @ 1.89 (1.13 units to win 1 unit)
Monday Results:
Standard Plays: 0-0-3 (-4.88 units)
Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 2-1 (-2 units)
Record (Standard Plays): 22-0-18 (+1.31 units)
1 Unit Plays: 11-0-11 (-2.59 units)
2 Unit Plays: 11-0-7 (+3.9 units)
Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 3-1 (-1unit)
I think everyone had a bad day yesterday. Tweak the system and come back stronger.
Wow, I certainly wasn't expecting that comment today. Thank you.
You know, it's so encouraging to see positive results when you are testing out a new system, but a day like yesterday seems about a hundred times as discouraging. Two of my standard play games ended 2-1 with the final goals in the 84' and 87' minute, so I'm hoping it was just an unlucky day.
I don't believe I have any qualifying games today, but I'll be back to the grind tomorrow.
Good luck!
I genuinely think you have a decent system. Your 2 unit plays seem the strongest though. The u3.5 goals seem risky though because of the large outlay. Like yesterday, you only need 1 loss to ruin your day. That's the tweaking. Find your strongest area and concentrate your efforts on that.Wow, I certainly wasn't expecting that comment today. Thank you.
You know, it's so encouraging to see positive results when you are testing out a new system, but a day like yesterday seems about a hundred times as discouraging. Two of my standard play games ended 2-1 with the final goals in the 84' and 87' minute, so I'm hoping it was just an unlucky day.
I don't believe I have any qualifying games today, but I'll be back to the grind tomorrow.
Good luck!
I agree with you about my 2 unit plays being the strongest, but believe it or not I really think the under 3.5's have potential. Every day, I use specific ceiteria to narrow down the day's games to between 3 to 15 possible under 3.5 plays. I've been tracking the results of these games for almost two weeks now and they are hitting at a rate of 94.1% - that's about 1 loss in every 17 games. Right now I'm working on further criertia such as H2H data and defense/offense strengths to narrow down these games further to 1-3 plays per day to make them feasible to play and with some luck, extend the winning streaks.
Now, I only have 51 weekday games meeting my under 3.5's criteria tracked (48 wins-3 losses...+33.34 units), and I've been doing this long enough to know that's not anywhere near enough data, but I thought I would start posting my narrowed down selections for honest tracking. I'm also playing these games right now for fun and for very small units. We'll See how things go...
Last edited by KATCHASE; 05-07-13 at 09:43 AM.
Think the under 3.5 might be well worth a shot today in the Roma - Chievo game, don't think it will end up with an easy blowout win. (I decided to play another bet instead though)
Considered doing the same; don't understand the line. Recent form suggests under, yet the only options at 5Dimes are over/under 3.5 or 3/3.5.
I agree with you about the easy win and that's what makes me a little leery about the under 3.5 for this match...plus the fact that 52.9% of Roma's home games have gone over 3.5 goals. Given that Chievo's away games only gone over 3.5 goals about 35% of the time, their defense could slow Roma down but this game is a little too risky for me.
Of course, if I would LOVE this bet I would have bet it myself. Too scared in this game though. But a 2:0 f.e. def. wouldn't surprise me. Chievo has a good defense, they are def capable of slowing down Romas offense on a good day.
Nice call on the under Z
Wednesday, May 8:
FRANCE - FRENCH CUP
EVIAN VS. LORIENT - Under 2.5 @ 1.77 (2.6 units to win 2 units)
ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 3.5 @ 1.16 (6.25 units to win 1 unit)
- Adding Almirante Brown - Under 2
Wednesday, May 8:
FRANCE - FRENCH CUP
EVIAN VS. LORIENT - Under 2.5 @ 1.77 (2.6 units to win 2 units)
ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 3.5 @ 1.16 (6.25 units to win 1 unit)
ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 2 @ 1.8 (2.5 units to win 2 unit)
It is always so frustrating to know that the french games should stay under, but then to lose your bet so early. I tailed the play so misery loves company.
Damn...of course Evian decides today is the day to put on a show...they score more goals today than their last four games combined!
Looks like you turned a profit today though
Yes, albeit a small one. But the day might not be over for me though. I may have one more late game.Looks like you turned a profit today though
- Adding Dallas/Portland game
Wednesday, May 8:
FRANCE - FRENCH CUP
EVIAN VS. LORIENT - Under 2.5 @ 1.77 (2.6 units to win 2 units)
ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 3.5 @ 1.16 (6.25 units to win 1 unit)
ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 2 @ 1.8 (2.5 units to win 2 unit)
USA - MLS
DALLAS VS. PORTLAND - Under 2.5 @ 1.86 (2.33 units to win 2 units)
I have to admit that I sure was sweating those last 20 minutes or so of the Dallas/Portland game when Dallas scored at the 71' and then Portland answered right back at the 77'. But the game held, (along with my breath), to end in a 1-1 draw.
Wednesday Results:
Standard Plays: 2-0-1 (+1.4 units)
Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 1-0 (+1 unit)
Record (Standard Plays): 22-0-18 (+2.71 units)
1 Unit Plays: 11-0-11 (-2.59 units)
2 Unit Plays: 13-0-8 (+5.3 units)
Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 4-1 (+1 unit)
2 units doing the business again for you. Very good day in the end.
Thursday, May 9:
DENMARK LANDSPOKAL CUP
RANDERS FC VS. ESBJERG - Under 3.5 @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)
- Adding 2 Norway games
Thursday, May 9:
DENMARK LANDSPOKAL CUP
RANDERS FC VS. ESBJERG - Under 3.5 @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)
NORWAY ADECCOLIGAEN
FOLLO VS. STABAEK - Under 3 @ 1.66 (1.52 units to win 1 unit)
NORWAY ADECCOLIGAEN
HODD VS. KONGSVINGER - Under 3 @ 1.77 (1.3 units to win 1 unit)
Thursday Results:
Standard Plays: 1-0-1 (-0.52 units)
Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 1-0 (+1 unit)
Record (Standard Plays): 23-0-19 (+2.19 units)
1 Unit Plays: 12-0-12 (-3.11 units)
2 Unit Plays: 13-0-8 (+5.3 units)
Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 5-1 (+2 units)
Friday, May 10:
ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
DEP. MERLI VS. FERRO - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)
MOROCCO BOTOLA
MOGHREB TETOUAN VS. OLYMPIQUE KHOURIBGA - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)
*3 TEAM PARLAY @ 1.55 (1.82 units to win 1 unit):
ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
DEP. MERLI VS. FERRO - Under 3.5 @ 1.15
+
MOROCCO BOTOLA
MOGHREB TETOUAN VS. OLYMPIQUE KHOURIBGA - Under 3.5 @ 1.15
+
ARGENTINA PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO FINAL
BELGRANO VS. ATL. RAFAELA - Under 3.5 @ 1.17
Two down...now one more to go for the parlay...
Good day on Friday with the under 3.5's...
Friday Results:
Standard Plays: 0-0-0 (0 units)
Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 3-0 (+3 units)
Record (Standard Plays): 23-0-19 (+2.19 units)
1 Unit Plays: 12-0-12 (-3.11 units)
2 Unit Plays: 13-0-8 (+5.3 units)
Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 8-1 (+5 units)
1 Unit Plays: 7-1 (+4 units)
Parlays: 1-0 (+1 unit)
Looks like you were right about those u3.5 plays. +5 is very healthy
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