1. 04-04-13 08:29 AM #1
    kosti
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    Analyzing Line Movements

    Very interested in this idea for soccer betting. I've been doing this in the North American sports with some success but nothing life changing or even something I plan on pursuing much further.

    I've been following some lines in soccer this past week just to get an idea of movement and their effect. The major leagues seem to have odds that are fairly bang on, what I would call minor movements at most.

    My interest is in the smaller and obscure leagues/cups. I have seen lines move 15-30% on a few occasions within a 24 hour period. One example was yesterday in the Swedish League Cup...Orgryte line dropped roughly 15% the day before the match, the odds were still quite good +130 or so, and they won 1-0.

    Another example was also from yesterday or possibly Tuesday in the Copa Libertados. The Velez Sarsfield line and the Santa Fe lines dropped significantly since they opened up (both were favourites mind you) but paid a healthy parlay as both teams won.

    Now I realize that a weeks worth of observation is not going to show me the true value of watching these lines however it has sparked my interest. Soccer seems to have heavier line movements once you get away from the big leagues (fixes, inside knowledge etc....who knows why).

    I'm just wondering if anyone has looked into this further and if there is value in the long term.
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  2. 04-04-13 09:05 AM #2
    onemoregoal
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    Yes and Yes.
    Soccer has too many leagues for the books to handle. They dont know everything and concentrate on the bigger leagues where they make the most money.

    With minor leagues, In Europe they offset this by simply banning you or limiting heavily if you win - also the amount you can win is usually relatively small.

    In USA they offset this by odds being offered (if at all) much later than the euro books to ensure the price is more accurate, ie once people have started betting on it and markets have settled.
    An example would be the Iceland league cup, which has been popular on this board for taking "overs". In europe pretty much every game odds have been released early by the euro books and value can be had on the over goals - in USA the odds come up 12hours before the game and the price more accurate.

    Generally the more obscure the league - the more chance of a value price being found..... but also the more chance of you being limited in europe or odds not being offered at all for US.
    The leagues you mentioned arent that obscure - theres much bigger shifts in odds in something like the Indonesian league, if you know what to look for.
    If you had acess to euro books 5-10k across all the many crap books here can be won through value betting - before you are booted out, in US up against pinnacle and 5 Dimes etc its a lot harder and you also dont have live betting where fixed games can easily be spotted and massive differences in odds be found.
    gl
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  3. 04-04-13 09:26 AM #3
    EasyPicks
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    The major european books like bet365, bwin, wh, ladbrokes, vc, etc...adapt their lines real quick.

    I've tracked the second division leagues across europe for a period of 6 months last year...and sometimes you think you found a trend just to figure it out in the next couple of weeks that the trend is worth sh*t.

    Unless you know before hand where the fix will be....just ignore those massive line movements
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  4. 04-04-13 09:54 AM #4
    kosti
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    Thanks for the feed back guys and keep it coming. I'm just going to post this to see how it turns out. Llaneros +1 line has dropped over 25% in the last hour (was at 2.20 at 10am and last I checked Bet365 it was at 1.63). Curious to see how the game ends up. A lot of the lines for that game have changed recently. THe under 2.5 was at 1.9 early this morning and has dropped to 1.65 currently. It's interesting and I will keep watching it
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  5. 04-04-13 10:01 AM #5
    onemoregoal
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    Dep. Anzoategui 2-0 Llaneros

    This game? finished 16 hours ago can you still bet ?
    Llaneros play again on the 7th but no odds out as far as i can see...
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  6. 04-04-13 10:17 AM #6
    DarkNite
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    I think this is good one to study, but I did not use this one so I lost yesterday. Haha!

    http://www.nowgoal.com/6in1.htm
    So far I won one game today using this one. I picked Viborg.
    Together we can beat the bookie.
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  7. 04-04-13 10:20 AM #7
    DarkNite
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    If you want to see the big dropping line is:
    Mallorca @ Barca
    Levante @ Real Mad.
    Barca and Real Mad have just played in CL, so line indicated that they will be flat on Saturday.
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  8. 04-04-13 10:25 AM #8
    DarkNite
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarkNite View Post
    I think this is good one to study, but I did not use this one so I lost yesterday. Haha!

    http://www.nowgoal.com/6in1.htm
    So far I won one game today using this one. I picked Viborg.
    Together we can beat the bookie.
    By using this tool, the next game is Hobro v Vejle:
    The pick is: Vejle and Under.
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  9. 04-04-13 10:33 AM #9
    Simen236
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    Edit: Removed
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  10. 04-04-13 10:36 AM #10
    Vaughany
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    You'll see big line movements in certain leagues where teams rest key players for certain games. I've made most my money on soccer this year by getting on early lines before they move rapidly when I know a team is going to put out a second-string side. You see it in South America particularly...teams like Velez and Newell's have been resting the best players in league games when they have Copa Libertadores games on either side of that league game. You may find that Velez rest a number of players this saturday when they play San Lorenzo as theyve just had an away game in Copa Libertadores and have another next Tuesday, however it may be different now as they are low in the league and guaranteed qualification in CL so may play regulars. Newells have also done similar this season
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  11. 04-04-13 10:48 AM #11
    bolek
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    Vejle / hobro 1-1 17min in
    not looking good for you my friend. Unless ends like this.
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  12. 04-04-13 11:22 AM #12
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by onemoregoal View Post
    Dep. Anzoategui 2-0 Llaneros

    This game? finished 16 hours ago can you still bet ?
    Llaneros play again on the 7th but no odds out as far as i can see...
    Funny that you bring that up because there was a game yesterday that I played in the Colombian Cup as well and start time was 4:15pm....I found the final score at 4:45pm and Pinnacle returned my wager.

    Today's match with Llaneros is this

    Today
    16:15 La Equidad - Llaneros
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  13. 04-04-13 12:47 PM #13
    Simen236
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarkNite View Post
    By using this tool, the next game is Hobro v Vejle:
    The pick is: Vejle and Under.
    Vejle won at least.
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  14. 04-04-13 01:47 PM #14
    hotelis
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    well, if there is a line movement in Cyprus games, be sure to POUND IT
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  15. 04-04-13 05:41 PM #15
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotelis View Post
    well, if there is a line movement in Cyprus games, be sure to POUND IT
    haha good to know
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  16. 04-04-13 05:44 PM #16
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    Today's match with Llaneros is this

    Today
    16:15 La Equidad - Llaneros
    Finished 0-0...put a cautionary bet on it. Red card for Llaneros as well. I will keep following to see what happens.

    Tonight's play is Aurora +1 in Bolivia...starts at 8pm (hopefully!)
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  17. 04-04-13 06:44 PM #17
    onemoregoal
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    Funny that you bring that up because there was a game yesterday that I played in the Colombian Cup as well and start time was 4:15pm....I found the final score at 4:45pm and Pinnacle returned my wager.

    Today's match with Llaneros is this

    Today
    16:15 La Equidad - Llaneros

    Ah, the one I mentioned was a Venezuelan team with the exact same name
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  18. 04-04-13 07:00 PM #18
    Nova99
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    would be interesting to find out if there was any news that came out when you noticed the movement. For stuff like swedish or copa libertadores how would you know if the drop was due to some news on the squad?
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  19. 04-04-13 09:16 PM #19
    kosti
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    Bolivian match was a push.

    Few others I'm looking at if anyone is interested. Just watching....maybe a small bet here and there depending where they go from here:

    Zeledon/Belen match: Under 2.5 (Costa Rica)
    Elfsborg/Halmstad match: Under 3 or 2.75 (Sweden)
    Hacken/Kalmar: Under 2.5 (Sweden)
    Westerlo: -.75 (Belgium)
    Zob Ahan: DNB (Iran)
    Everton: +.5 (England)
    Jeju Utd: +.75 (S. Korea)
    Novi Pazar: +.5 (Serbia)
    VfB Huls: +.5 (Germany)
    FC Jurmala: -.5 (Latvia)
    Smederevo: +1.5 (Serbia)
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  20. 04-05-13 05:58 AM #20
    Vaughany
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    Pissed off for not going big on Everton +0.5 and PK last night after Bale got injured. Could get Everton double chance at better than Evens. Said to my mate can guarantee money will come in on Everton now. Everton ML was at +325 and look today and is now +225
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  21. 04-05-13 10:20 PM #21
    caveira
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    Should be great to create a thread with info about the leagues.
    i.e: I am Brazilian, can spot fast when a team is going to put out a second-string side here, but when i try to find last news about the second division from sweden, i do have so much trouble...
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  22. 04-07-13 05:54 AM #22
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by caveira View Post
    Should be great to create a thread with info about the leagues.
    i.e: I am Brazilian, can spot fast when a team is going to put out a second-string side here, but when i try to find last news about the second division from sweden, i do have so much trouble...
    What about Sao Paulo tonight at Botafogo? I see Sao Paulo are without most of their key players apart from Rhodolfo and Lucio. Botafogo have only conceded 1 goal at home so far this season. Can get Botafogo PK @ +135
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  23. 04-07-13 06:11 AM #23
    gossie
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    Quote Originally Posted by caveira View Post
    Should be great to create a thread with info about the leagues.
    i.e: I am Brazilian, can spot fast when a team is going to put out a second-string side here, but when i try to find last news about the second division from sweden, i do have so much trouble...
    we don't actually play much on second division of sweden really?
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