Sao Paulo vs Arsenal Serandi
Pick: Sao Paulo -1,25 -106 2 units
So SP has been punished and they´re not playing this home game in their stadium Morumbi, but Pacaembu is a public stadium that is the second home of all the big teams in the city so this is not an issue today.
Last home game for SP was very disappointing for the fans and bettors including myself. They didn´t perform well and they´re passes were off and they just didn´t create many scoring opportunities in the game. They still won the game despite they´re bad performance. Coach Ney Franco will play the same team from last game except for the absence of midfielder Denilson due to injury. Fabricio will substitute him, he´s a well experienced player, the only concern here is that he´s also been injured for quite a while and hasn´t played much since then.
I do believe SP will be playing much better today and they also have great players in the bench that can make a big difference if things don´t go well in the field. They´re very strong at home and a team with big Libertadores tradition. Arsenal lost both games they played so far and if they lose tonight they´re chances of qualifying will be almost nil. Their coach Gustvo Alfaro said they have to get at least a point to survive in the competition. He will be making his team play very defensively and try to score some goals in counter attack. Their midfielder Aguirre and goalkeeper Olivero won´t be playing due to injury.
SP has not lost to foreign teams in their last 18 home games. Playing Libertadores at home SP has an impressive 46 wins - 8 draws - 4 losses. Arsenal is playing Libertadores for their 3rd time and never passed group stages. Libertadores is the most important competition for brazilian teams and not to qualify for the next round will be considered a disaster for any of them. I believe SP will score in the first half and Arsenal plans of playing defensively will not work and they´ll have to open their defense giving more opportunities for SP to score. Things would have been different in the last game if SP had an earlier goal against The Strongest. I have confidence that SP will be playing better today and Arsenal hasn´t showed much till now. They don´t have a strong defense and I´ll be surprised if they score today. The outcome of this game depends on how well SP plays today. They have the motivation, the stronger team, the crowd and they´re familiar with the field. So I expect a nice home win with over 2 goals difference.
No doubt Atletico ** has a strong squad this year with Ronaldinho, Tardelli, Jo and young talent Bernard. They´ve beaten Arsenal in a away game by 5-2 and beaten Sao Paulo in a 2-1 home game. If you look at the numbers you´ll probably think that this will be an easy match for Atletico and they´ll probably score 3 or more goals tonight and they have the talent to do it. I don´t think it´s the case in tonight´s game. Independencia field is a small field, although Atletico hasn´t lost there in a long time the demensions of the field will help The Strongest to defend themselves better. They did a good job in Sp stadium, Morumbi. The 5 goals scored by Atletico has a lot of influence with the way Argentinian tem Arsenal played. Their defense made some innocent mistakes and playing at home they just gave too much space fof Atletico to score in counter attacks. The game against SP was very close and Atletico managed to win that game in two mistakes SP defense made.
The Strongest is coming tonight just to defende themselves, their confidence and hope is in their home games with altitude in their favor. The small Independencia field will help this team defend themselves. I don´t believe they can surprise Atletico tonight but I do believe they´ll give Atletico a hard time to score. I don´t expect goals from The Strongest tonight. 2-0 or 3-0 is what I expect tonight.
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bing march 7
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