[TheSportsAnalyst]

Back to football/soccer after a period full of UK horse racing bets only.
My last thread (The Italian Job) ended with a 55% strike rate and a nice 11% yield so I hope to repeat that effort possibly over a longer period.

As always I'll not cover major leagues (because I'm not so good to beat such efficient markets) and I'm going to search through lower leagues, not only here in Italy, in order to find some value.
All the picks are Asian Handicap only.
Of course as usual I'll provide an explanation for each pick, 'cause I don't like naked ones.

Winter break is coming so plenty of time to study form, slowly (but steady) increasing the number of leagues monitored.

Happy to see some good guys like Vaughany still active on this board.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

ITA Lega Pro 1/A - Portogruaro vs Pavia +0.25 @1.90 (SBOBet)

Pavia is coming off a bye week and this was welcome by the team as they have a lot of injured players.
Portogruaro have financial problems and even if the team still believe in the owner and in the coach they recently offered very poor performances, losing against Cremonese at home, playing very bad against a mediocre Reggiana and collapsing 1-4 vs Albinoleffe.
They are in a 4L streak and probably a draw isn't considered a beat in this particular moment.
Pavia have some key missing for Saturday like starting defenders Di Chiara (ban) and Zanini, midfielder Luca Meregalli and star wing La Camera (14/2) but coach Roselli worked well in the past when under difficulties.
They probably will lineup in a 5-3-2 very tight to took off a point and considering they've conceded only 5 goals when on the road this season they seem to perform very well when playing defense.
Portogruaro received this week a 2 points deduction for the match fixing scandal and this is another bolt from the blue for them.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

ITA Lega Pro 1/A - Cuneo -0.25 v FeralpiSalò @1.93 (188Bet)

I like Cuneo recent form and think they're a more solid squad than FeralpiSalò, whose value is inflated by recent 4-0 to Lecce (a team in big trouble) and 3-0 against Treviso (which is a very poor side).
Frankly I don't see Feralpi winning there as they are an extremely streaky team and they're due for a fall sooner or later.
Half of my stake back in case of a draw is a fair compensation.

[Tommy_de1st]

GL my friend.
Are those italian lower leagues still full of corruption?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

GL my friend.
Are those italian lower leagues still full of corruption?

I don't think those league are corrupted more than many others lower leagues around the world.
I mean, adjustments and mutual deals for standings placement and stuff will always be made, but if you means corruption for betting purposes the situation isn't so bad.
We're just a country which don't like to keep safe its dirty secrets: a lot of European states were/are involved in match fixing scandals but nobody tells about it...

[Tommy_de1st]

Of course they don't talk about it coz it is just profitable for certain group of people inc players etc.
After those scandals involving Juve, Napoli and other clubs my Italian friend said that lower leagues are corrupted and this is where my opinion was based on.
GL with your bets.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Cuneo - Feralpi 2-0
Portogruaro - Pavia 2-2

One win and a half for a +1.38 units

Good start

[Tommy_de1st]

Good job