1. #1
    PaulS
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    PaulS turns 3k to...

    Hello everyone, I am newbie here so some words about my strategy which I started in 1st August and want to continue that here

    My management is more risk, I think that but it's the only way I can make enough profits in bookies.
    I made deposits in few popular bookies for a whole amount of 3000£ in August. So in few points, my strategy is

    Bankroll: 3000£
    Min stake: 1% of current bankroll
    Max stake: 20% of started bankroll (I will increase my max stake when I catch a clear 25% profit so when my bankroll reach 3750£ in the 1st level, etc)
    So far my bank increased by £ 9,405.92 of net profit in last 3 months and achieved a yield over 17% kept winning accuracy over 60%. All my placed bets can be seen HERE in google spreadsheet.

    Overall,
    I use various options like asian markets, DNB, moneylines, 1X2. Surely won't touch goalscorer bets, number of corners or other special bets from football games. Please don't expect posts everyday, sometimes I am really busy in real life, like most of us. I didn't plan previews below my bets just clear bets. Per one day shouldn't be many bets, I think in 1 month average 15-25 selections with the highest positive feelings and deep analysis in my head. If you wish despite this to see at least few words about a match, I can do that, just give me respond. From time to time plan to make current records of my past bets with winning acc, profit and ROI.

    Just for information - I analyse using various opinions from native guys mostly. Fair prices are important for me as making profits. Don't touch prices when they dropp too much and trully believe in my intuition. I don't plan open any service or offer you paid subscription, all Im gonna do this is for free.

    Any comments are welcome

    At the moment I got 1 pending bet on Biel +0.5 from Switzerland Challenge League.



  2. #2
    soul786
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    Looks fantastic, with great results. Great use of keeping the log too, do you update is before you place the bets so others can view your progress or tail you bets?

  3. #3
    Mrscofield25
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    Interesting. Will keep an eye on you.

  4. #4
    Vaughany
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    NIce one, welcome to forum. I'll keep an eye on this as well

  5. #5
    mrkipling
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    Pretty dam impressive, look forward to seeing more from you.

  6. #6
    clting08
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  7. #7
    zizoudane10
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    I think the max bet is a bit too risky, but that definitely is some absolutely beautiful work here man!
    Keep it up!
    Last edited by zizoudane10; 11-05-12 at 09:55 PM.

  8. #8
    ColdBeerHere
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    Lookin' good man...Bol to you....I also agree that 20% stake makes me a little squimish.....I guess as long as you don't do it often.....

  9. #9
    Jimmy0607
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    Welcome man, good luck

  10. #10
    PaulS
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    So far the highest stake I've used was 15% of my bankroll and I think it's gonna stay on this level

  11. #11
    yogohama
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    When do you release/make your picks?

  12. #12
    PaulS
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    Quote Originally Posted by yogohama View Post
    When do you release/make your picks?
    Usually few hours before kick-off, sometimes depends on market and odds movements, I try to do it at least 1 hour before kick-off.

    From Champions League, don't plan to touch it, analyzing only brazilian serie b.

  13. #13
    soul786
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulS View Post
    Usually few hours before kick-off, sometimes depends on market and odds movements, I try to do it at least 1 hour before kick-off.

    From Champions League, don't plan to touch it, analyzing only brazilian serie b.
    Smart move. The CL can be unpredictable I never gamble heavy, enjoy watching the games though

  14. #14
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulS View Post
    Usually few hours before kick-off, sometimes depends on market and odds movements, I try to do it at least 1 hour before kick-off.

    From Champions League, don't plan to touch it, analyzing only brazilian serie b.
    On Sao Caetano PK and +0.5...

    Another play:


    Brazil Serie B: Sao Caetano PK @ +175 away at Criciuma, and also Sao Caetano +0.5 (win/draw) @ -133.

    Reasons for playing this are two-fold: Firstly Criciuma are without their four top scorers and four key players in general... Ze Carlos is the top goal scorer in league with 26 goals in 27 games (suspended), Lucca has 11 goals in 26 games (suspended), Marlon has scored 6 in 30 appearances and is out, & finally Kleber (5 goals in 31 games) is also unavailable. Those four combined equate to approx' 66% of Criciuma's total goals scored this season so is a significant loss. Secondly, Sao Caetano have the best away record in the league with 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. The next least amount of losses away from home are Vitoria and Criciuma who have lost 5 each. Sao Caetano's away record is in fact better than their home record which is obviously quite rare.

    Reasons for not playing this: At the end of the day Criciuma are solid at home with 14 wins and 3 losses (no draws), and if they win the game they are guaranteed promotion. At same time Sao Caetano are still in with a chance of promotion and need to win to keep that alive so it's not like Criciuma are only one with something to play for.

  15. #15
    Vaughany
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    Also Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score a goal at -138 on pinnacle. Best line elsewhere is -200. William Hill have it at -500!

  16. #16
    PaulS
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    Thanks Vaughany for your thoughts, anyway I picked another and just one selection today.

    Brazil Serie B Gremio Barueri vs Ceara
    Gremio Barueri 0 @ 1.67 in SBOBET with 8% (£1040)

    Odds dropped, the highest were 1.85 which was pretty good value anyway I am still interested in current odds. Market is still open.

  17. #17
    Vaughany
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    How come you like Gremio? I'd of played them if they were fighting for survival but I think they are already relegated aren't they? is it just based on Ceara's poor form (6 losses on bounce)?

  18. #18
    Vaughany
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    I noticed a few players have already left Ceara as well such as Itamar (famous for stealing his team-mates' wallets in Qatar!), Marques and Careca - apparently 14 players already left squad?!
    Last edited by Vaughany; 11-06-12 at 09:26 AM.

  19. #19
    mrkipling
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    Currently 2.30 ods for Gremio on bet365

  20. #20
    Vaughany
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    Also realised that Gremio can still technically avoid relegation if they win all games! I thought they only had 2 games left rather than 4. So I'll join you on the PK at -150.

  21. #21
    Vaughany
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    Joao Marcos and Apodi, two regulars, are also out for Ceara

  22. #22
    Sovereign7
    What the.....
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    6 WIN
    8 DRAWS
    AND....20 LOSES.
    Awesome. They'll choose today to get their 7th win.

  23. #23
    soul786
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sovereign7 View Post
    6 WIN
    8 DRAWS
    AND....20 LOSES.
    Awesome. They'll choose today to get their 7th win.
    If there's a spot where this bet works, it IS this one. Missing players on the road team + a horrible form give Barueri the opportunity. Smart bet. I'm not saying it will work or it won't, but the bet is smart

  24. #24
    Vaughany
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    My thoughts on it:

    Another Brazil Serie B play:


    Gremio Barueri PK @ -151 at home to Ceara.


    May not be the smartest play as Gremio are bottom of the league and have suffered some heavy defeats at home! I've also bet on their opponent a couple times this season as I liked their team - they had some solid experienced players such as Mota, Itamar, Apodi, Robert, Juca, Careca. However, Gremio are in a must win situation, although it's extremely unlikely that they can survive, they can still mathematically stay in the division if they win every one of their remaining 4 games. Ceara on the other-hand are sat exactly mid-table with no chance of promotion and no chance of relegation so very little to play for. So in terms of motivation you have to side with the home team who have to go out there tonight looking for the three-points. Ceara have released 14 players already including Itamar who scored against Gremio when Ceara won 2-0 at home earlier in season. Gremio also had a player sent off after 24 mins when they met before. Ceara have lost their last 5 games in the league and lost 5 out of last 6 away matches. They will also be without Joao Marcos, Apodi and Careca for this game tonight - 3 regular starters. Some youngsters like Luiz Henrique will play... granted this may actually be a good thing for Ceara as the youngsters like Luiz will probably be more motivated to perform and take their chance to impress the manager in these types of games then those that are tired from playing all season. So just because the team as a whole has nothing to play for doesn't necessarily mean individuals won't play the game of their lives and change the game. Plus for all I know players like Luiz Henrique could be the next Robinho or Neymar! Gremio Barueri have lost their last two games, one at home to America RN and last wknd away at fellow relegation candidates CRB, but again their lack of discipline didn't help as they had a player sent off in 64th minute, but were still able to pull a goal back in 85th minute even with 10 men but ended up losing 2-1. But before those two matches, Gremio had found some form, beating America Mineiro away, Criciuma away (one of only three teams to beat Criciuma at their ground), and drawing away at Bragantino. And at home they had beaten Ipatinga, and drew against Sao Caetano and Joinville. So in terms of form Gremio clearly have advantage as they have lost 2 out of last 8 whilst Ceara have lost 6 out of last 8.

  25. #25
    Vaughany
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    Ah well stake back for Gremio play but Sao Caetano PK and +0.5 hits easily

  26. #26
    PaulS
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    I wanted to post a bet, still admin didn't confirm the post/message. It's nonsense.

    If the things will be the same, you have the link to google spreadsheet. All bets, those finished and pending you can find there. Cheers

  27. #27
    pellumb341
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    nice job pauls

  28. #28
    Josu
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulS View Post
    I wanted to post a bet, still admin didn't confirm the post/message. It's nonsense.

    If the things will be the same, you have the link to google spreadsheet. All bets, those finished and pending you can find there. Cheers
    You have to have your posts confirmed? Why? And thanks for posting, it's always fun to follow cappers like you who take it seriously and really try to make money by carefully selecting your wagers. Keep it up!

  29. #29
    PaulS
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    Today just one bet, hard to find any other good bet this Sunday. Poor weekend anyway...

    Tyrkey Super League Mersin Idman Yurdu vs Galatasaray
    Galatasaray -0.5 and -1 @ 1.758 in Pinnacle with 10% (£1300)

  30. #30
    PaulS
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    And the last one today

    Romania Liga I Brasov vs Pandurii
    Brasov 0 @ 1.83 in Pinnacle with 10% (£1300)

  31. #31
    swordsandtequila
    Soul Eating Machine
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  32. #32
    kmarinouofm
    Those who stay.. will be Champions!
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    gala should be an easy winner. .

  33. #33
    bolek
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    2-1 prob

  34. #34
    bolek
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    GOAL 1-0 sweeetttt

  35. #35
    bolek
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    common make it 2-1 ...........

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