Falcons/Belgium/Croatia is just above evens. Obviously the Falcons are playing Oakland today, who are terrible, they'll win easily. Belgium are at home to Scotland on Tuesday, coming off a convincing 3-0 win at Serbia, unbeaten after 3 games so far. Croatia are also unbeaten with 7 points, came back to win 2-1 at Macedonia on Friday.

Wales played Scotland on Friday and won 2-1. I watched the game and both teams are poor. Wales were actually put in Pot 6 for the Qualification draw, with minnows like Andorra, San Marino etc. That shows how bad they are, they lost 6-1 in Serbia and 2-0 at home to Belgium previously, being completely outclassed in both games. It was only profligate finishing from Belgium that meant it wasn't 4 or 5-0. They've scored 3 goals in 3 games, all from Gareth Bale; a consolation free-kick in Serbia, a penalty on Friday and an admittedly good strike to win it. However, if you look at the last goal you'll see that it was really poor Scottish defending that meant he was able to collect possession from the free-kick, run 15 yards unopposed and get a shot off. Croatia's superior team won't give him that much time. He's the only threat Wales have got and it's been shown in the Premier League over the pat 18 months that he can be nullified quite easily. Wales have found it hard to pass to each other in the 3 games (and I'm being serious, it's quite funny to watch them) and I think they'll be on the end of another thrashing.

Scotland should have been 2-0 up before Wales came back on Friday, they had a perfectly good goal disallowed. However, they generally struggle to score, with no real attacking threat. Their previous results are a draw at home to Serbia (credible) and a draw at home to Macedonia (terrible). The Macedonia game was one they had to win and they went behind in the game and were lucky not to be down 2 or 3-0 before they equalised. Their manager Craig Levein has a tendency to play a 4-6-0 formation away from home against top teams and I'll guess that he'll do the same in Belgium. When he did this a while ago against Czech Republic he was slaughtered and they still ended up losing 1-0, after clinging on for 70 minutes before finally the Czechs scored. A big loss in Belgium will probably result in his sacking. You only have to look at Belgium's squad to see how good they are, they should finish top of the group and this should be an easy win.