1. 10-09-12 02:26 PM #36
    silvap
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    3 Serie B matches going on tonight, only liking one bet out there:

    ASA -1 vs Guaratinguetá (1.97) - Although ASA is only 14th in the standings, their home record is pretty good - they are 9th in the home standings and 3 of their 4 home losses were against the top3 teams in the league. They have also won 6 of their last 8 at home. As for Guaratinguetá, they are the 2nd worst away team in Brazil Serie B, with 11 losses in 14 matches. While ASA doesn't beat oponents by multiple goals often (only 3 of their 8 home wins were by 2+ goals), Guaratinguetá often does get punished. I think ASA should get the home win here very often, so i see this as a win or a push most of the time.

    Only one play in the three games, not much value on the books tonight, although Joinville (2nd best home record) vs Sao Caetano (best away record) should be an interesting game.

    Full card of Serie A games tomorrow, so hopefuly some more value plays there.

    best of luck on your plays
    Last edited by silvap; 10-09-12 at 02:26 PM. Reason: spelling
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  2. 10-09-12 03:09 PM #37
    JESSE1014
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    Quote Originally Posted by silvap View Post
    3 Serie B matches going on tonight, only liking one bet out there:

    ASA -1 vs Guaratinguetá (1.97) - Although ASA is only 14th in the standings, their home record is pretty good - they are 9th in the home standings and 3 of their 4 home losses were against the top3 teams in the league. They have also won 6 of their last 8 at home. As for Guaratinguetá, they are the 2nd worst away team in Brazil Serie B, with 11 losses in 14 matches. While ASA doesn't beat oponents by multiple goals often (only 3 of their 8 home wins were by 2+ goals), Guaratinguetá often does get punished. I think ASA should get the home win here very often, so i see this as a win or a push most of the time.

    Only one play in the three games, not much value on the books tonight, although Joinville (2nd best home record) vs Sao Caetano (best away record) should be an interesting game.

    Full card of Serie A games tomorrow, so hopefuly some more value plays there.

    best of luck on your plays
    Hey buddy

    Hope all is well. Just hit a nice little two team parlay on a England Johnston Trophy game so want to take a little action on the brazilian league tonight. Unfortunately book is not offering ASA at -1 or would take that in a hearbeat can only take them to win at -175, I want to parlay it with another game in brazil tonight. I understand that there is not much value in the other two games, but do you have a hunch on who I could parlay it with, leaning parlaying asa and joinville at the moment, let me know what you think, thanks!
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  3. 10-09-12 03:18 PM #38
    silvap
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    Hey Jesse,

    parlays in brazil are hard enough to like even when your picking favourites on good form, doing it against the top away team in the division seems even harder. I'm staying away from that game (and from the dreadful meeting Gremio Barueri and Ipatinga, the bottom two teams in Serie B) as i think it can really go either way there.
    Cheers
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  4. 10-09-12 03:27 PM #39
    JESSE1014
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    Quote Originally Posted by silvap View Post
    Hey Jesse,

    parlays in brazil are hard enough to like even when your picking favourites on good form, doing it against the top away team in the division seems even harder. I'm staying away from that game (and from the dreadful meeting Gremio Barueri and Ipatinga, the bottom two teams in Serie B) as i think it can really go either way there.
    Cheers
    That does make sense silva, appreciate the advice. May just put the money instead on giants (mlb), do not see them getting swept tonight.
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  5. 10-09-12 04:58 PM #40
    Semper Fidelis
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    Quote Originally Posted by JESSE1014 View Post
    That does make sense silva, appreciate the advice. May just put the money instead on giants (mlb), do not see them getting swept tonight.
    That's exactly what I did bud. Made a parlay of the giants, ASA, A's RL, and a couple of heavy challenger favs in tennis. Pays just over 10/1, so hopefully it comes through for me! Good luck with your bets everyone, and thanks again silvap!
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  6. 10-09-12 06:25 PM #41
    atofsu32111
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    Do you like the under? Neither team seems to score much
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  7. 10-09-12 06:28 PM #42
    bolek
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    Playing over 2.5
    Cheers
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  8. 10-09-12 06:29 PM #43
    bolek
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    Take a look at Asa ht/fl
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  9. 10-09-12 07:31 PM #44
    bolek
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    Silvap you know anything about santos 2 morrow at botafego I feel like playing santos draw no bet at +240 or ml at +400 santos is neymar not playing
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  10. 10-09-12 08:09 PM #45
    silvap
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    hey bolek, i'll look into the game more carefully tomorrow and post the plays i find valuable, but i can tell you that neymar will not play - he is suspended, and that santos has been pretty bad lately and should miss neymar dearly.
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  11. 10-09-12 08:13 PM #46
    bolek
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    K thanx got the ht/ft Asa so far so good 2-0 and hit the first goal at 42min lol so lucky cheering for the -1 and the over 2.5
    Cheers
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  12. 10-09-12 09:00 PM #47
    bolek
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    Played the over 2.5 from Wtt and the ht/ft Asa great night $$$

    Nice pick on the -1 $$$
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  13. 10-09-12 09:03 PM #48
    silvap
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    And we cash as ASA gets a 3-1 win, up 2-0, concedes a goal with a couple of minutes left but gets a penalty right in the end to seal a win for us. One more unit.

    Full schedule of Serie A games tomorrow, will look into them tomorrow afternoon and post the plays i find.

    Cheers
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  14. 10-09-12 09:15 PM #49
    pokerwhiz90
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    cash it! you are the king of brazillian soccer capping
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  15. 10-09-12 09:16 PM #50
    naoeneko
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    Nice one silvap. I took ASA win (to not get a push ) after I saw your play and parlayed it with the remaining 2 matches 1st 10min U.05 goals. I'm eagerly looking forward to your future play!
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  16. 10-10-12 11:58 AM #51
    Tommy_de1st
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    Hello guys, I see some good quality in this thread
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  17. 10-10-12 01:18 PM #52
    silvap
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    Plenty of games tonight and lots of teams missing key players on international duties.

    Bahia vs Fluminense pk (1.71) - Although Bahia has been on pretty good form lately - in fact they are among the top teams in the second half of the season - they are still a struggling home team, only 18th in the home standings with 4 wins in their 14 home matches. They are also missing several key players, such as forwards Jones and Souza and midfielder Kleberson. As for Fluminense, they are the league leaders and the best away team in Brazil, with 9 wins and only one loss away from home. With the championship getting closer by the day, Fluminense knows they can't drop points and allow Atletico Mineiro to get closer, so look for them to go for the win here. Thiago Neves will be away on international duty, but he will be replaced by very capable Rafael Sobis, who will join Flu's powerfull offense of Deco, Wellington Nem and Fred.

    Cruzeiro vs Portuguesa - 0.5 units on DRAW (3.37) - Two teams with the same number of points, 10th and 11th in the standings. Cruzeiro, who is playing at home, usually does better on the road and Portuguesa, the away team tonight, has been much better at home. Cruzeiro has been struggling very much lately, not having won a game in their last 7 overall matches. Portuguesa only has 2 wins on the road this season, but they do have 5 draws in 14 matches, including away ties against teams ranked 8th, 12th and 13th. Cruzeiro has 4 draws in their last 6 home games.

    Botafogo vs Santos - Under 2.5 (2.02) - Just better than even money for the under here seems like a good price for a Santos team that will be without their star Neymar. Without him, the team struggles mightly to score and get good results. When facing the teams in the top half of the standings (on the road), Santos has scored just 2 goals in 7 matches. At home, Botafogo is splitting their games 50-50% on overs and unders, although they do a little better against the teams in the bottom half - 4 of 7 went under. I think Botafogo should win this game, but with them having uneven results and the odds at around 1.7, i like the under better then the moneyline on them.

    Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro - 0.75 units on the DRAW (3.42) - Both teams missing lots of players for this one - Internacional will be without Leandro Damião, Diego Forlán, Guiñazu (on national team duties), D'Alessandro and Índio, injured. As for Atlético Mineiro, they won't have they goalkeeper Victor (national team) and key defender Réver (suspended) as well as Ronaldinho, who will probably be suspended for this one. Atletico has not won a game on the road in their last 8 matches, having collected 5 draws in that span. Similarly, Internacional has 4 ties in their last 5 overall games. Hard to believe either team will have much on an edge on this game, so I feel there's plenty of value on the sharing of points.

    That's it for tonight's games. Despite the number of games, not finding much value on the books. Lots of players missing and teams in uneven form make it harder to like games, so i rather go with fewer players than force them just for the sake of betting.

    Best of luck on your plays, cheers
    Last edited by silvap; 10-10-12 at 01:20 PM. Reason: missing info
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  18. 10-10-12 01:21 PM #53
    bolek
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    Trying out a parlay !!!
    Fluminese
    Corithians
    Atletic M dnb
    Vasco over 2.5
    Coritiba over 2.5

    Cheers +3218
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  19. 10-10-12 02:07 PM #54
    Hereindallas
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    Tailing your parley for a few dollars
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  20. 10-10-12 05:35 PM #55
    KidSeoul
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    Hey Silva. Tailing you on all of them, with a little extra on the Under 2.5 for Botafogo/Santos game! Thanks for the write-up and posting! BOL!
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  21. 10-10-12 05:43 PM #56
    bolek
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    I took the over with Wtt hopefully it hits for $3000 paray to finish it.
    Gl
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  22. 10-10-12 05:44 PM #57
    bolek
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    Atletic m draw no bet nice value take it $$
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  23. 10-10-12 05:49 PM #58
    KidSeoul
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    Quote Originally Posted by bolek View Post
    Atletic m draw no bet nice value take it $$
    What?
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  24. 10-10-12 05:51 PM #59
    bolek
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    Yup take it draw no bet athletic vs internacional cheers and gl
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  25. 10-10-12 05:55 PM #60
    KidSeoul
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    Quote Originally Posted by bolek View Post
    Yup take it draw no bet athletic vs internacional cheers and gl
    Oh i see. But the game already started. I guess you mean live bet then.
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  26. 10-10-12 06:00 PM #61
    bolek
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    The game start in exactly 2 hours from now where ever u are...
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  27. 10-10-12 06:01 PM #62
    KidSeoul
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    Oops. Sorry bolek. I saw Atletico vs Figuirense and thought that was the game you were referring to.

    I am going to definitely play a bit more on Atletico vs Internacionale once these first three games cash!
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  28. 10-10-12 06:06 PM #63
    bolek
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    Not my play but onacloud did a nice write up on it and saw other ppls input as well so I am taking a stab it it.
    Gl
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  29. 10-10-12 06:18 PM #64
    KidSeoul
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    Quote Originally Posted by bolek View Post
    Not my play but onacloud did a nice write up on it and saw other ppls input as well so I am taking a stab it it.
    Gl
    Sweet! I like Onacloud too!
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  30. 10-10-12 06:44 PM #65
    JESSE1014
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    This Bahia game has gone back and forth someone is going to score......
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  31. 10-10-12 06:48 PM #66
    KidSeoul
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    Quote Originally Posted by JESSE1014 View Post
    This Bahia game has gone back and forth someone is going to score......
    Yeah, hopefully Fluminense!
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  32. 10-10-12 06:50 PM #67
    KidSeoul
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    Yes! Fluminense just scored! 1-0 in the 59th minute!
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  33. 10-10-12 06:51 PM #68
    KidSeoul
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    Damn Santos put in two quick goals! 2-0 in the 60th minute!
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  34. 10-10-12 06:52 PM #69
    bolek
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    Quote Originally Posted by bolek View Post
    Silvap you know anything about santos 2 morrow at botafego I feel like playing santos draw no bet at +240 or ml at +400 santos is neymar not playing
    And I played the over geeeeezzz
    2-0 so far
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  35. 10-10-12 06:55 PM #70
    KidSeoul
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    Quote Originally Posted by bolek View Post
    And I played the over geeeeezzz
    2-0 so far
    I'm on the Under! It's going to a very interesting final 30 minutes!
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