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Brazil Plays for Saturday
Hey guys, 9 games in Brazil's top two divisions and we look for value where it can be found. Here are my plays for today:
SERIE A
Vasco da Gama vs Figueiresense - Over 2.5 goals (1.84 at 5dimes) - 62% of Vasco's home games have gone over and 58% of Figueirense's away games have also seen at least 3 goals. When playing teams ranked 14th and below (Figueirense is 19th), Vasco's games have gone over 4 out of 5 times. Recently the trend points to the over as well- 4 of the last 5 Vasco home games going over and all of the last four on the road for Figueirense as well.
Cruzeiro vs Internacional -Draw - 0.6 unit at 3.28 - Cruzeiro struggling overall and a mediocre team at home, with only one win in their last 6 home games and 3 draws in that span. Against the top 6 teams in the league (Internacional is 7th), they have 3 draws and 3 losses. Internacional is surging and finally have most of their squad back and ready to play, after plenty of injuries and missed games on national team duties. However, it is tough to back them to win when they only have 3 road wins- against 17th, 18th and 19th placed teams. They do have 6 ties in 12 road games, including 4 in their 6 games against the top half of the standing teams.
Portuguesa vs Atletico Mineiro pk (1.78) - Atletico has not looked as hot as they were a few weeks ago but they still a good team very much in contention for the league title, 4 points behind leader Fluminense. For this game against Portuguesa, they will be missing some players in the back (most importantly Réver, sent off in the last game), but will have some others back - mainly Bernard. Portuguesa has improved at home as of late, but they still only have one win in 6 games against the top half of the standing teams, so while a push is possible, a loss here is unlikely.
Náutico -0.5/-1 vs Atletico Goianiense (1.86) - Although Náutico sits only 14th in the standings, they actually have the 5th best home record and have won 5 of their last 6 home matches, including beating 2nd placed Atletico Mineiro in the last one, a 3-0 versus Sao Paulo and a 1-1 draw against 4th Vasco da Gama. Tonight they face Atletico Goianiense, dead last in the standings, who have actually shocked league leader Fluminense in the last game for their first away win of the season. That should be viewed as a fluke and we can excepect the team to revert back to their losing tendencies (which they actually have already, dropping the next game at home on a 2-1 loss to Flamengo). With Nautico's top two goalscorers back, look for the team to get the win and secure their position in the standings.
Nautico vs Atletico Goianiense - over 2.5 goals (1.83) - Nautico is spliting their home games evenly on the overs and unders, going 50-50% for the season on those. However, when facing the teams in the bottom half of the standings (read: the bad teams), they have actually gone over 4 times in 5 games, scoring 3 goals by themselves in each of those games. As for Atletico GO, they have 54% of their away matches have gone over, as they have conceded in 11 of their 13 road matches. They have also been scoring lately, having gotten at least one goal in 7 of their last 9 away matches.
Palmeiras vs Ponte Preta +1 (1.78) - Interesting game in thise one, as Palmeiras' new coach has just been signed from Ponte Preta. Ponte has not lost in their last 8 games and have only two losses on the road all season by multiple goals. Palmeiras coaching change showed some promiss, but they still only have two wins in their last 10 matches, both coming against weak teams (17th and 19th). I would say the draw is the likeliest result for this one, but i would be almost shocked if Palmeiras beat Ponte by more than one goal.
SERIE B
Avaí vs Vitória pk/+0.5 (1.83) - Avaí is a good home team, sitting 4th in the home standings and 9th overall. However, they do struggle when facing the better teams in the league, with their two home losses coming against the 5th and 6th ranked teams. Tonight they host Vitória, the league leader and with the 2nd best away record. Vitória have not lost in their last 8 away games. I'll certainly take the chance to profit from either the win or the draw from the best team in the league, who are aware of their need to win after 2nd place Criciuma won last night as well.
Avaí vs Vitória - over 2.5 goals (1.92 at 5dimes) - 62% of Avaí's home games have gone over 2.5 goals, including 6 of their last 7. As for Vitória, their away games went over 54% of the time. When they face the teams in top half of the standings, they have seen 3 or more goals 5 times in 7 matches.
Guarani vs America RN - Under 2.5 goals (1.9) - Two evenly matched teams, Guarani is 11th and America RN is 10th. Only 46% of Guarani's home games have gone over and only 38% of America's away matches have seen 3 goals or more. More relevantly, when facing teams of similar strenght (7th to 15th), only 1 of 5 home games for Guarani and 1 of 5 away matches for America RN has gone over 2.5 goals.
Bragantino vs Atletico Paranaense pk/-0.5 (1.82) - A classic case of a bad home team (18th overall and at home) versus a good road team (Atletico PR 6th overall and 4th away). Before losing their last one versus 3rd place Goias, Atletico was on a roll, with 5 wins in 6 road matches. Look for them to get back to their winning ways as they face Bragantino, a team with only 3 home wins and none against teams in the top 7 spots of the league. The pk allows for us to push half the bet in case the home team can scap away the draw.
Bragantino vs Atletico PR - over 2.5 goals (1.91) - 54% of Bragantinos«'s home games have gone over, while all their 4 home games against team in the top 7 spots have seen at least 4 (!) goals. As for Atletico, 62% of their away games feature 3 goals or more, including 3 of the last 4.
That's it for tonight, very big card i know, hopefully lots of value plays in here. Best of luck for you guys tonight.
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Originally Posted by i97g
