Pretty bad day yesterday, hoping to get it back today. Not forcing plays, just looking for value where it can be found. Tail or fade at your own peril, here are some write-ups for tonights games:
Botafogo -0.5 and -1 vs Nautico (1.9 at pinnacle) - Botafogo playing well, with Seedorf playing a marvelous last game, the team should be motivated to get a home win here. Nautico sits in 11th place overall, but only because of their strong showing at home (5th best playing in their stadium) as they are atrocious away from home - 19th in away standings with 8 losses in 11 matches. Botafogo has mixed results playing at home but all of their home wins except for one have been by multiple goals. At the same time, 6 of Nautico's 8 away losses have been by more than a goal.
Santos vs Sao Paulo - Over 2.5 goals (1.85) - Santo's defense has been a mess lately and their games have gone over 2.5 in their last 10 matches (in fact, they have both scored and conceded in 9 of those 10 games, which shows both a good offense and bad defense). Neymar and Arouca away at international duties and Ganso missing the game with an injury is not ideal, but they have scored without them in the last game as well. Luis Fabiano and sao paulo should have a field day against Santo's defense.
Internacional vs Fluminense pk and +0.5 (1.76) - Eating a little bit of chalk here to still make some money on an eventual draw here - Internacional struggling as of late, with only one win in their last 6 matches. Fluminense on the other hand have not lost in their last 10, are the league leaders and the best away team in the league, with a single loss in their away matches. Fred, fluminense's top striker is back from injury and Internacional missing 8 of their players, including top players Leandro Damiao, Guinazu and Forlan all in their national team squads and D'alessandro, sent off in his last match.
Atletico ** to win vs Palmeiras (1.54) - Plenty of juice here, but Atletico ** are second in the league overall (with one game back) and second best at home, with 8 wins in 10 games. Palmeiras on the other hand, is dead last in the away standings, having lost 8 of their 10 matches away. Im resisting the urge to play the -1 for Atletico, as only one of Palmeiras 8 losses have been by multiple goals.
Recife vs Cruzeiro pk (2.00) - Even money proposition here is a good price here for a Cruzeiro team that sits in 8th place in the league much because of their away campaign (they are 5th on the away standings and only 12th at home). Recife on the other hand are the second worst home team with only 3 wins in 11 home games, and have not won against the top half of the league teams (one draw and 3 losses). Since we don't lose money on the draw and seem unlikely to lose here, value is all around. (one could also try to sort of freeroll for the draw, by getting half a unit on the draw and half a unit on the cruzeiro win - would get the money back on a cruzeiro win and profit on a draw)
That's it for tonight, hopefuly thing will go better than last night. Best of luck on all your plays
Ended the day slightly up, could have been much better had Cruzeiro not allowed recife to turn the game around after being up 1-0... Still good to end the day in profit
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