A few games in Brazil's top two divisions tonight and we'll continue to look for value spots, after picking up a unit in profit last night:
Serie A
Ponte Preta to win vs Figueirense (1.79 at pinnacle). Ponte Preta sits in 9th place overall and faces one of the bottom teams at home. Figueirense 19th overall and are particularly dreadfull on the road, having lost 7 of their last 8 away matches, with their one win against another bottom team (18th placed Recife). Ponte on the other hand has five wins in 8 matches against the bottom half of the table and 3 out of 4 against teams placed 16th or below. At this price, i figure to be value in a ponte preta win.
Coritiba vs Flamengo +0.5/+1 (1.84 at pinnacle) - Decided to eat a little chalk and get the +1 with the +0.5 for flamengo - you can get only +0.5 at plus money (2.1). Coritiba at home is a total hit or miss team - they have wins against 3rd placed Gremio and 6ht placed Internacional and they have lost games to 18th Recife and a 1-1 tie do 17th Palmeiras. Flamengo has strugled lately on the road but they do only have one away loss against a team in the bottom half of the table (Coritiba is deep in the second half, placing 16th as of right now) - and even that loss was by a single goal, so Flamengo seems in good position to either get some points in this game or at worse get a one goal loss, which is the kind of proposition i like to get.
Joinville to win vs Avaí (1.97 at pinnacle). Joinville ranking slightly above Avaí (5th and 8th respectively) but Joinville are the 2nd best team at home in the league and Avaí only 12th away from home. Joinville in a great 7 win home streak before a tie in their last game as Avaí have lost five of their last seven away and having lost every single away game against the top half of the league teams . At this price, seems to be plenty of value on Joinville here.
Criciuma to win vs America MN (1.86) - Simply put, Criciuma has won all 11 home games this season and are second overall in the league. America MN not a bad away team (they are 7th overall and the 4th best away team) but in poor form recently, with only 2 wins in their last 10 overall games, both against bottom of the table teams. While a draw here seems possible, as Criciumas home streak can't go on forever, still lots of value at this price on a Criciuma win.
Ipatinga vs Vitoria - Vitoria to win (1.8). League leader and top away team in the brazillian serie B, Vitoria travels to Ipatinga, 18th placed team. With only 3 points more than second place Criciuma, Vitoria cannot waste any points. With five away wins in five away matches against teams in the bottom half of the league, Vitoria is a clear favourite to take all three points.
CRB vs Goias - over 2.5 goals (2.03 at pinnacle) - Goias games on the road often have plenty of action, with 64% of their away matches reaching at least 3 goals, against the bottom half of the table, five of their seven matches went over with four of those games with four goals at least. CRB at home not always has all that many goals, but they do have a 2-2 tie against 4th placed Sao Caetano and a 4-3 win against 5th placed Joinville, which could be meaningfull as they face the 3rd ranked team in the league. At plus money, i like the over here.
All bets suggested at one unit each. Best of luck on your bets tonight.
Yeah, im leaving the Corinthias game alone, Corinthias have been too unpredictable - they just beat top ranked Atletico Mineiro in their last home game only to lose to horrible Figueirense on the next. Gremio decent on the road, rather leave that one be and live to fight another day!
Great to see we're on the same side of that Vitoria game too
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