Only two games tonight but hopefully some value on both:
Fluminense-Santos - Under 2.5 - Both teams with plenty of players missing, both due to injury and Brazil national team duties (they play tomorrow vs South Africa). Fred, Deco (fluminense) and Neymar, Ganso and Arouca (Santos) will all be absent and all are crucial players on the offensive side of the floor. Both teams are have a tendency for lower scoring games (Fluminense at 60% under 2.5 at home and Santos at 64%) and Santos decent scoring uptick lately has to be attributed to Neymar coming back from the Olympics.
Palmeiras vs Sport Recife +1 - Two teams fighting to avoid relegation who sit on the down end of the league table. Palmeiras playing at home should be considered favourites, but with only 3 wins at home in 11 matches, it's hard to give them too much credit. Recife are missing some players but they are a fighting team, coming from a win and two draws in their last three matches. Also, and very importantly, they only have one loss away from home vs teams placed on the bottom half of the league table - three draws and a win in 5 matches, and even that one loss was by a single goal. Taking the Recife +1 at plus money (2.09 on pinnacle) should be pretty good value, as they are very likely to come away with points and unlikely to lose by more than a goal.
Was looking at Recife with the +1 as well, but decided on the under. 1-0 is the most likely outcome in this one. I generally tend to play Fluminense a lot (seems they rarely lose), but decided against it here. Santos is a bit of a wildcard.
Santos can be a wildcard but i think without that trio (Neymar, Ganso and Arouca) they should be pretty harmless, only question is wheather Fluminense can get the win without their own firepower there and not settle for the draw.
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Brazil Thursday
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