1. 08-26-12 08:38 AM #1
    in:extremis
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    in:extremis' 2012-2013 Soccer picks

    Hi all. I made a nice profit on soccer (football) last season following a system I have been working on for some time. I lived in Europe for about 6 years and was watching about 10 games of football a week. This season I will post my picks to keep track of them and hopefully help some of you win some money. I apologise I am from Australia and we work in a decimal system. Can someone point me to a thread explaining how to convert the odds and calculate units?

    Generally I will make a large wager on 2-3 team parlays with odds around even money. Yesterday I had a nice win with a Braga / Porto / Bayern Munich bet coming in. Tonight there is not much doing, and I don't generally bet on away teams but the value here is too good to pass up.

    Inter Milan away at Pescara. The odds here are ridiculous and I will explain why. Last season Inter Milan had a shocker and it was pretty much down to the manager that is a cancer where ever he goes,Claudio Ranieri. Andrea Stramaccioni replaced him in March and has Inter have been playing quite well since his appointment.

    Inter made a late transfer of Pereira from Porto and swapped Pazzini for Cassano which will only help Inter as Cassano is much better than Pazzini and the type of player Inter need. They travel to newly promoted Pescara who have a very average side and will most likely be involved in a relegation battle. Their three best players who helped them to promotion last season are gone, as is their manager.

    This is a game with a huge gulf in class and although Inter are away from home, even money or better (+108 at Pinnacle) is great value. In every league some teams take a while before the bookmakers catch up with them. If this game was in the 2nd half of the season and Inter were in the top 3 and Pescara were in the bottom three, Inter are paying 1.45 (-220).

    205427hp2.jpg

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  2. 08-26-12 10:07 AM #2
    rumnblack
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    BOL
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  3. 08-26-12 02:06 PM #3
    in:extremis
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    snsnsn.jpg

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    Attached Images
    Last edited by in:extremis; 08-26-12 at 02:10 PM.
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  4. 08-26-12 02:12 PM #4
    in:extremis
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    Nice start. Inter handled the early pressure then banged two in the back of the net in quick time. Hard work for Pescara from here.
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  5. 08-26-12 04:00 PM #5
    BigBurk
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  6. 08-26-12 09:02 PM #6
    in:extremis
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigBurk View Post
    Cheers mate, when Inter went 2-0 up it was over. Too classy for Pescara although Weiss the player on loan from Man City is a handful. I will be back next weekend, I have my eyes fixed on a few Sunday games.

    Record 1-0
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  7. 08-27-12 01:50 PM #7
    BigBurk
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    Keep them winners coming! Loving the fact that you only pick so much games, fully determined.
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  8. 08-27-12 07:50 PM #8
    balazs
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    what do u think of anderlecht home in uefa?
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  9. 08-29-12 10:21 PM #9
    in:extremis
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigBurk View Post
    Keep them winners coming! Loving the fact that you only pick so much games, fully determined.
    Cheers mate hope so!


    Quote Originally Posted by balazs View Post
    what do u think of anderlecht home in uefa?
    Sorry missed this. Another poster pointed out Anderlecht were a solid bet and fully deserved to win. I might make some plays on tonights Europa league games.

    I have some plays this week on some Sunday European games. Will post later.
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  10. 08-30-12 10:49 AM #10
    Mrkonas
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    where is the plays?
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  11. 08-30-12 11:17 AM #11
    in:extremis
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    No official plays for me tonight, no real value, however I am leaning towards a parlay of APOEL and Twente to win at home for even money. Also I will have a small wager on AZ Alkmaar to beat Anzhi.

    Other games that should win at home that are short priced are Inter, CSKA, Hannover, Hapoel, Liverpool and Marseille.

    So make of that what you will, I have some plays for Sunday I will post shortly.

    Best of luck if you are betting tonight on the football.
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  12. 08-30-12 02:21 PM #12
    BigBurk
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    Curious what your plays will be!

    Btw, just noticed that your thread title has a spelling error. Hadnt noticed before.
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  13. 08-30-12 09:59 PM #13
    in:extremis
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    The plays for this weekend are as follows:

    Bayern Munich -350
    Benfica -450

    Short priced yes but I just can't see either team losing this game and might be worth throwing into some parlays to add value.

    I like Inter Milan again this weekend against Roma at -100. Inter were able to rest players in the 2-2 draw overnight and should come out firing against Roma who are over rated in my opinion. The bookies still have not caught up with Inter so the -100 is great value. I see Milito scoring plenty of goals this season if he stays fit. The benefit of Cassano to this team, setting up goals and taking pressure off Sneijder to give Sneijder more space cannot be discounted.

    The only other match I like this weekend is in France, with Marseille to win against Rennes at -105. Again, Marseille rested players overnight and they have been firing this season. I am anticipating they have around 60% of the ball and 2+ the amount of shots at goal and should be able to take this. Marseille are losing some players but the same could happen to Rennes, I don't consider that a factor.

    Inter -100
    Marseille -105

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  14. 08-31-12 08:09 PM #14
    balazs
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    i'll sit this out with inter and marseille. bayyern and benfica both look strong and will include in parlays i think.

    this is
    Bk Forward - Akropolis IF [
    sweden division 1 north
    BK Forward
    1.36
    Draw
    4.20
    Akropolis IF
    7.50
    Over
    (2.5) 1.65
    Under
    (2.5) 2.10
    i like overs in this. BK have played 18 games this season. 16 at +2.5 2 at under. looks like good odds
    Akrop played hlf of theirs over in about the same number of games.

    Leicester
    2.15
    Draw
    3.40
    Blackpool
    3.20
    Over
    (2.5) 1.65
    Under
    (2.5) 2.10

    like this as overs too. lots of goals being scored by both teams.
    Thats the Leicster vs Blackpool game.
    dont know why its not showing properly
    Last edited by balazs; 08-31-12 at 09:23 PM.
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  15. 09-05-12 10:18 AM #15
    sergiudec
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    keep us updated on your plays ! Cheers!
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  16. 09-22-12 07:14 AM #16
    in:extremis
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    Sorry boys and girls was not able to post my plays last weekend. Had a nice winner last weekend turning $100 into $400 but will update the record after this weekend.Not much doing today. I have some plays for tomorrow but tonight I think you can lock in Porto but tonight the bet is on Wolfsburg. No real reason here. Those that would have read my write up on the Italian Job thread would have done well to stay away from AC Milan, so those that want to tail, jump on Wolfsburg at home to Greuther Furth.Bring it. Will update the record after the game. 1 unit on Wolfsburg.
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  17. 09-23-12 07:23 AM #17
    in:extremis
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    Bit of bad luck with the Wolfsburg game.

    Picks tonight, treble parlay.

    Inter Milan
    Marseille
    Atletico Madrid

    1 unit
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  18. 10-06-12 06:19 AM #18
    in:extremis
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    Yo all. Been screwed lately with moving house, family dying etc etc. No time to check sbr and see how everyone is doing. Hope everyone is doing well. I remember getting screwed by Inter in that last treble and they have won 3 games since.

    Anyway, a few plays for tonight. When I get settled I will be able to get the thread going and keep track of units etc.

    St Johnstone v St Mirren
    Newcastle +0.5 v Man United
    Swansea v Reading Over 2.5 goals
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