[Goat Milk]

Italy will not win this match. They are a poor counter team and won't get very many opportunities verse Spain in that respect anyway. Spain will control the tempo as they do in every game and their defenders of Ramos and Pique are very physical and will get under the skin of Bolatelli Cassano and Di Natali up front.

Spain is the most patient team you will see and I don't think they've allowed a goal in euro/wc play in the last 5 years, though I could be wrong. It would be wise to start Fabregas and not bring him off the bench here. Italy's defenders are dirty and will not be able to handle the quickness of Inesta and Navas and Pedro off the bench.

Torres could make an appearance if they struggle in the first half.

My problem with Italy is their defense. They sat back the entire time against the Germans and took their opportunities on the counter but they only got those chances because Phillip Lahm plays so far up the pitch, that Bollettelli exposed him. Pique never comes up. Ever. He sits back the whole time and you will never counter against spain.

Italy is also very slow in the midfield. Pirlo is great but him and Xavi are essentially the same player, at this point in their careers, Xavi is undoubtedly the better player. Casillas and Buffon probably the two best keepers in the business. I just think the idea of sitting back and hanging out in the box is not smart from the Italians because you have guys on spain that are more than capable of scoring from outside the box. Xabi Alonso, Fabregas, and Ramos are all big strikers from distance.

Germany is an in-the-box kind of team. Headers, and passing in the box. Once Italy went up 1-0 they pretty much packed it in and dared Germany to shoot from the outside. Spain will punish them if they give them that space.

Italy just doesn't have the creativity it takes to beat a team like Spain. They are too methodical.

Good luck whatever you decide.

[jizay]

Spain is the most patient team you will see and I don't think they've allowed a goal in euro/wc play in the last 5 years, though I could be wrong.

They allowed a goal in this euro cup against Italy. How could you miss that detail?

[Goat Milk]

They allowed a goal in this euro cup against Italy. How could you miss that detail?

Is that the only goal they allowed in the last 5 years in euro/world cup play? You get the point. If you have some more analysis to share, then please, do so. Sick of people nitpicking at everything when hardly anyone in this whole soccer forum takes 5 minutes to post a detailed reasoning behind their picks.

Take it or bet against it. Don't care.

[jizay]

Is that the only goal they allowed in the last 5 years in euro/world cup play?

Well, no. They let up 3 in euro 08 and 2 in last world cup. Yes, I get the point that they are a good defense, and yes, it is in general nice that someone does a writeup. But the writeup bends facts pretty badly and could mislead. It looks more like you trying to talk yourself into your own pick. BTW, I like Spain to hoist the cup. Good luck.

[JuniorAnalyst]

Balloteli scores 2 again
2-1 final with spain scoring as germany did, when there was no hope left

[Seto]

Italy will not win this match. They are a poor counter team and won't get very many opportunities verse Spain in that respect anyway. Spain will control the tempo as they do in every game and their defenders of Ramos and Pique are very physical and will get under the skin of Bolatelli Cassano and Di Natali up front.

Spain is the most patient team you will see and I don't think they've allowed a goal in euro/wc play in the last 5 years, though I could be wrong. It would be wise to start Fabregas and not bring him off the bench here. Italy's defenders are dirty and will not be able to handle the quickness of Inesta and Navas and Pedro off the bench.

Torres could make an appearance if they struggle in the first half.

My problem with Italy is their defense. They sat back the entire time against the Germans and took their opportunities on the counter but they only got those chances because Phillip Lahm plays so far up the pitch, that Bollettelli exposed him. Pique never comes up. Ever. He sits back the whole time and you will never counter against spain.

Italy is also very slow in the midfield. Pirlo is great but him and Xavi are essentially the same player, at this point in their careers, Xavi is undoubtedly the better player. Casillas and Buffon probably the two best keepers in the business. I just think the idea of sitting back and hanging out in the box is not smart from the Italians because you have guys on spain that are more than capable of scoring from outside the box. Xabi Alonso, Fabregas, and Ramos are all big strikers from distance.

Germany is an in-the-box kind of team. Headers, and passing in the box. Once Italy went up 1-0 they pretty much packed it in and dared Germany to shoot from the outside. Spain will punish them if they give them that space.

Italy just doesn't have the creativity it takes to beat a team like Spain. They are too methodical.

Good luck whatever you decide.

I disagree on a few points:

-I don't think Spain will punish Italy any more than Germany if they give them space to shoot from outside. Germans are generally renowned for long range shooting, and Spain rarely have a goal in them from that range, bar the occasional mad Xabi Alonso goal. I guess Iniesta has a shot in him (being a chelsea fan i know that lol) but he isn't Michael Ballack or Steven Gerrard.

-You say Italy don't have the creativity to beat Spain. Spain play possession football, and the best way to play against possession football is counter-attacking football (or better possession football obviously but Spain are by far the best in the business). Italy excel at just that. They are not the defensive force they used to be but are still solid enough and should be able to get a few decent transition opportunities.

You make some good points otherwise. Agree about Torres, I do understand the coach's point of view on this system without a real striker but I don't like it.

Good luck.

[Smogs]

They allowed a goal in this euro cup against Italy. How could you miss that detail?

The stat is 'elimination play' - they haven't conceded a goal in their last 9 games from quarters to the final

[Smogs]

The only way Italy can win this is as mentioned by SETO - they need to counter and get the ball in behind the back 4 of Spain.

Balotelli has the pace and composure to score that way - his second goal against Germany. Spain will control 60% of the possession, but won't press so hard on pirlo et al, so that long ball over the top will be a danger all night long.

Ultimately, the best bet i can find is under 1.5 goals, and that is found around the +140 range. I have to say though, the 0-0 half time draw looks tasty as hell at +110.

[Balco10]

Italy it is for a nickel at +152

[yysmer]

This thread makes me laugh so hard lol dumb Americans have no clue what football is.

[yysmer]

By the way, this is the same guy who said that Christiano Ronaldo could've chosen to play for Spain when he was 18... Hilarious as well lol

[Seto]

The only way Italy can win this is as mentioned by SETO - they need to counter and get the ball in behind the back 4 of Spain.

Balotelli has the pace and composure to score that way - his second goal against Germany. Spain will control 60% of the possession, but won't press so hard on pirlo et al, so that long ball over the top will be a danger all night long.

Ultimately, the best bet i can find is under 1.5 goals, and that is found around the +140 range. I have to say though, the 0-0 half time draw looks tasty as hell at +110.

They could win on penalties too. This is gonna be a tight game for sure. I'm considering a bet on Italy as this is pretty much a coin toss for me but I'm not sure yet. Under 1.5 is always tough, bet can burn in flames in 2 secs, just look at the Champs League final this year. If you like that, why not try 0-0 as well that said? Under 1.5 basically is 0-0 or 1-0, at 1-0 you will have a pretty open final 5-10 mins where it can often end 1-1 or 2-0 (obviously loads end 1-0 too lol, but those last few mins of back to forth are always a bit of stressful ), if you like it to be cagey give yourself as much value as you can IMO.

[Smogs]

They could win on penalties too. This is gonna be a tight game for sure. I'm considering a bet on Italy as this is pretty much a coin toss for me but I'm not sure yet. Under 1.5 is always tough, bet can burn in flames in 2 secs, just look at the Champs League final this year. If you like that, why not try 0-0 as well that said? Under 1.5 basically is 0-0 or 1-0, at 1-0 you will have a pretty open final 5-10 mins where it can often end 1-1 or 2-0 (obviously loads end 1-0 too lol, but those last few mins of back to forth are always a bit of stressful ), if you like it to be cagey give yourself as much value as you can IMO.

Yeah i know what you mean, i'm going heavy on under 2 goals and taking the juice head on

[Coach Potato]

Spain look toothless in attack, I don't know who is going to score for them agaisnt this good Italian defence

[onacloud]

This thread makes me laugh so hard lol dumb Americans have no clue what football is.

Explain.....

[swordsandtequila]

Explain.....

He/she won't explain. It's easier to make a blanket assumption based on one post than offer, you know, facts.

[Goat Milk]

This thread makes me laugh so hard lol dumb Americans have no clue what football is.

lol I guess I was wrong on just about everything. Hey where was Balottelli today? That's right, Italy had 0 chances, shutdown by Pique and Ramos, no transition game with those guys sitting back, xavi, inesta, silva creating all the plays and Spain and Italy's weak defense not being able to handle their quickness.

Get silenced

[Raven66]

Spain look toothless in attack, I don't know who is going to score for them agaisnt this good Italian defence

4 different players.....Italy`s good defense LMAO.

[Seto]

Good call here. Was pretty off about this one

[showtiime]

lol I guess I was wrong on just about everything. Hey where was Balottelli today? That's right, Italy had 0 chances, shutdown by Pique and Ramos, no transition game with those guys sitting back, xavi, inesta, silva creating all the plays and Spain and Italy's weak defense not being able to handle their quickness.

Get silenced

sorry goater but you're not helpin' your cause there