I would suggest that doing an accumulator where there are more than two possible outcomes greatly decreases your chances.
For example if we look at the English Premier League 2011/2012
Results Number %
Home Wins: 171 45
Draws: 93 24
Away Wins: 116 31
If you were straight betting and picked three selections then there are 3 * 3 * 3 different combinations = 27 possible outcomes. You'd need to get 3 from 9 selections perfectly right to win.
Other than Man City, Real Madrid, Barcelona and a handful of other teams the result is nearly always variable and unpredictable. For example Arsenal, Tottenham and Newcastle, who finished in the top third of the table won 12 or less home games from 19 and none won more than half their away games.
Of course betting against the elite teams with underdogs is likely to empty your bank!
What we are looking for instead is to select teams which are under-rated versus middle-of-the-road teams.
There are leagues where a team which has a vastly higher league position than its rival but close examination will show that there is not huge difference between them. For example, the Spanish Segunda division has teams in 4th, 5th and 6th with only about 20 wins from 40, whilst the bottom three have only lost about 20 games from 40.
Football is unpredictable but there is a far higher chance of winning when WIN and DRAW will both pay you, a chance to save your stakes with a PUSH, and only when the boringly predictable 2+ goals defeat comes in do you lose your cash.
We are looking to make things exciting with parlays, and as we are covering SIX from NINE outcomes, plus the odd push in our favour, I'm confident we can do very well.
Feel free to observe to see how we do!
Last edited by Rammond; 05-26-12 at 03:10 AM.
Reason: had a table from cut and paste in there
Our first TREBLE is the European Super (Rugby) League.
Widnes Vikings (+38) 16:00 Warrington Wolves v Widnes Vikings (TV)
We will take Widnes in the first game as they are almost like an American Football Team starting with a six touchdowns start as you can get a +38 start.
Widnes are defensively a very bad team however they are playing a local derby on a neutral ground in a prestigious stadium and will not want to be embarrassed. Last week they scored 34 points against the excellent Catalans Dragons and have previously scored 37 against top-of-the-table Wigan and 37 against London. They should be able to score about 14 points as a minimum.
My view is that Warrington will need to score over 50 for us to lose or completely shut out Widnes and I do not see either happening. Widnes are a bad team but capable of scoring points.
Bradford Bulls (+12) (Sun) Bradford Bulls v Leeds Rhinos
Our second selection is the Bradford Bulls v Leeds Rhinos. I really like this one because Bradford gets a +12 start but has won the past two games v Leeds and is also about level with them in the table. Even the past three losses to Leeds have been by only 4 and 8 points, with just one going over at fourteen points.
Bradford are a strong defensive outfit against a Leeds team which is pacey but can be overpowered in the forwards and which has lost about four or five of its last seven games. It wouldn't surprise me if Bradford win straight in this one.
London Broncos (+18) (Sun) Catalans Dragons v London Broncos
Our last game sees the Catalans Dragons play across the channel at the Manchester City football ground against the London Broncos.
This annual Magic weekend fixture has seen the Broncos win 5 times out of 6 in the past and there is a lot of reason for Broncos to put in a special performance this weekend. The club owner is that disappointed about this season's results that he is currently conducting a full investigation into what is going on and this has put the underperforming Broncos under the microscope.
Last week they only conceded two tries in the entire game v Hull and they are defending like their livelihood depends upon it. The French have conceded two 34s, a 32 and a 16 on their last four visits to England against three of the four weakest teams in the league so I see London making the cover.
Spain (-1) v Serbia - World Champion/European Champion with 100% Euro qualifiers record v team that finished behind Estonia in its group. Experimental line-up for Serbia of young players. Spain short of Barca players but basically a Real Madrid team with stars like David Silva and Juan Mata.
Portuguesa v Vasco (+0.25) - Vasco the better team with 16 wins, 4 draws from past 25 games v a team with one win in nine and who hasn't won in four. +1 available also on Vasco at mean odds
Poland v Slovakia (+1) - likely to be a low scoring fixture. Poland only scored over two goals v Singapore in past 27 games. Slovakia unbeaten away in five with a good win in Turkey in last game. Beat Poland in World Cup qualifying. Only lost to world cup finalists Holland 2-1. Great chance to draw and a one goal loss costs us nothing
Last edited by Rammond; 05-26-12 at 05:01 AM.
Reason: more details
Spain is the World and European champion playing against a side which could not qualify for the European Championships and finished behind Estonia. With a new manager they have an experimental line up with an average age of 23 against a side made up mainly of Real Madrid players plus the likes of David Silva and Juan Mata and who had a 100% qualification record. They will lose, it is just a question of how many, the -1 means we get at least a push but without the prohibitive odds of the straight bet.
Vasco have won 16, drew 4 and lost 5 from their past 25 games and are the better team than Portuguesa who have won just 6 from their last 25 and won only once in the past nine games with four games without a win including not beating Bahia. With a positive handicap you should make hay whilst the sun shines. The bookies are generally offering Portuguesa with the handicap so look hard for this one.
Slovakia are unbeaten away from home in five games with a good away win v Turkey in their last game and have beaten Poland in the past couple of years. Even at World Cup Finalists Holland they only lost 2-1. Poland have only scored more than two goals once in their past twenty seven games and that was against Singapore. Expect under 2.5 goals here. I'd bet on the draw, but the one goal loss costs us nothing
1. Los Angeles (+0.5) (19:30 Houston v Los Angeles - Asian Handicap (-0.5))
2. Vasco Da Gama (0) (22:30 Portuguesa v Vasco Da Gama - Asian Handicap (0))
3. Chicago (+0/0.5) (00:00 Columbus Crew v Chicago - Asian Handicap (-0/0.5))
This one sees two very marginal underdogs in Los Angeles and Chicago get covered on both win and draw, plus Vasco covered for a win, with a push for the draw.
Comes out at about 6/1, not bad value at all in my book. I'd reckon we have about a 55%-60% chance per selection on the MLS games but a higher chance on Vasco, maybe 65% when we include the Push
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All aboard the asian handicap parlay train!
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