[Mr.Kitty]

vs.

Romanian capital Bucharest is the home of the 2012 Europa League Finale between spanish sides Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao. For Madrid this competition brings back fond memories after winning in 2010 over english side Fulham with 2-1 in extratime and securing the title. Diego Forlan (now Inter) played a crucial role with his two goals in the final. Today Radamel Falcao has replaced him and this competition should be very special to him. He scored the lone goal which gave Porto the title last year and he became the topscorer with 17 goals. This year he hasnt been quite as successful scoring 10 goals in the competition but he is still topscorer tied with Schalke´s Klas-Jan Huntelaar. Pinnacle has him at +139 to score which could be worth a small punt. Not all players have the nerves to do that little extra and play a decisive role. This man definitely has proved he can tip the scales.

Athletic Bilbao have never won a European Cup so this is a huge opportunity for the club and whole region. Spanish international striker Llorrente is the big man up front for Bilbao. With his 7 goals in the competition he´s currently the fourth best scorer. Pinnacle offers +161 for him to score. Coach Bielsa rested many players for this game against Getafe in La Liga (0-0) so his squad might have the fresher legs if this game goes deep into extratime. The Europa League final has repeatedly gone to overtime in recent years. 2009-10, 2008-09, 2006-07 finals were all decided in overtime. These teams dont have the habit of playing too many ties with each other, they have split the last ten meetings going 5-0-5.

Even so, this is the type of game you want to play safer because the immense importance for both teams. I recommend the "Who will win the Cup?" option if you intend to play sides because it removes the possibility for a draw and includes overtime and penalties. Right now Atl.Madrid is priced around -120 and A.Bilbao +100.

In addition to being more rested, Bilbao have their full squad available. Madrid have some half-injured players which most likely will be available. Former Chelsea midfielder Tiago is suspended and will be the only real loss.

Both teams are offensive-minded and many are predicting another high scoring game. It could happen but finals are usually tight affairs where neither team want to risk making mistakes. As for over/under bets I´m staying away.

Wolfgang Stark is tonights referee, this season he has an average of 3,56 cards per/game in all competitions. Bilbao has recieved the most yellow cards in the whole competition this season with 35 or 2.5 cards per/game. Madrid is fourth on that list with 2.21 cards per/game. So its clear these teams play a physical game and commit many fouls every match. In that respect we can find better value in card props rather then 1X2 and over/under markets.

Emotions will be high, especially since both are spanish teams. Previous five finals had 8, 4, 7, 3 and 5 y cards. When two teams from the same country met, last year Porto vs. Braga and 2006-07 with Sevilla vs. Espanyol we saw 8 and 5 cards get shown. In domestic competition this season Bilbao and Madrid have met twice, the first match had 7 y cards, the second 8 so I expect another tough duel. At the end the losing team usually tend to take some unessesary cards just because they are mad.

As always I wont make any bets until I see the official lineups.

Possible starting XIs

Atletico Madrid: Courtois; Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Filipe; Suarez, Gabi; Adrian, Diego, Turan; Falcao.

Athletic Bilbao: Iraizoz; Iraola, Martinez, Amorebieta, Aurtenetxe; De Marcos, Iturraspe, Herrera; Susaeta, Muniain; Llorente.

Share your own thoughts and plays, lets win BIG! GL

[RubberKettle]

Excellent write up. Top class stuff in there.


I'm plating Atletico to win in 90'

+150 on Falcao (who scored to win this trophy last season for Porto) is too short. Lots of people seem to be on Bilbao, but I wonder if taking games off in the league will make them dull in front of goal. Bilbao was shutout last three games. Its not like flipping a switch.

[Mr.Kitty]

Thanks RubberKettle I appreciate it!

I agree with what you say, Bilbao have focused only on this competition but in doing so slipped in La Liga. They may have shot themselves in the foot because its not like flipping a switch like you say. Moreover, Madrid has the experience edge which could prove important.

Unibet has Llorente and Falcao to score by header at +400 which could prove to be a better option since these teams puts a lot of crosses into the box and get many corners. But I may skip the goalscoring markets all together tho.

Gonna look more into the corner markets in a while.

[Mr.Kitty]

As I mentioned, both teams attack much through the flanks and produce many crosses and corners. In La Liga Bilbao averages 11,95 corners per/game while Madrid average 11,45 corners per/game. (Total corners combined with opponent.)

In Europa League Bilbao and Madrid have produced the most corners of all teams, 88 and 83 or 6,29 and 5,93 corners per/game. (Based only on their corners, not combined with opponent.)

The corner total for the final is set to over/under 11.

[richie360]

As I mentioned, both teams attack much through the flanks and produce many crosses and corners. In La Liga Bilbao averages 11,95 corners per/game while Madrid average 11,45 corners per/game. (Total corners combined with opponent.)

In Europa League Bilbao and Madrid have produced the most corners of all teams, 88 and 83 or 6,29 and 5,93 corners per/game. (Based only on their corners, not combined with opponent.)

The corner total for the final is set to over/under 11.

Excellent information! Might have a small play on the over 11 corners.

[NotSammySosa]

under 5.5 yellow cards? they usually let them play on in the finals

[Mr.Kitty]

under 5.5 yellow cards? they usually let them play on in the finals

It depends on the referee. Wolfgang Stark average 3,56 cards per/game in all competitions but as you say the dynamic can be different in a finale. Spanish La Liga has by far the highest average on cards if i´m not totally mistaken (over 5 cards per/game). Of course it's also about the judges' level but I think emotions will be high since both are spanish so I expect at least four cards.

I´m going to bet on certain players to recieve a yellow card rather then over/under. I really like those markets for value.

[Mr.Kitty]

Official lineups:

Atletico Madrid: Courtois, Filipe, Miranda, Godin, JuanFran; Gabi, Suarez; Turan, Adrian, Diego; Falcao

Athletic Bilbao: Iraizoz, Iraiola, Martinez, Amorebieta, Aurtenetxe; Herrera, Iturraspe, De Marcos; Susaeta, Llorente, Muniain

[Mr.Kitty]

Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao over 11 corners at -117 1x

A.Madrid
Mario Suárez to recieve a yellow card at +155 2x
Gabi to recieve a yellow card at +180 2x
Arda Turan to recieve a yellow card at +165 2x

A.Bilbao
Javi Martinez to recieve a yellow card at +160 2x
Iturraspe to recieve a yellow card at +142 2x
Amorebieta to recieve a yellow card at +130 2x

I know the prices seem short, all prices under +200 is a bit worrisome when it comes to card and goalscorer props. But, I have been successful at this even tho its more nerve wracking. I need to hit at least three in order to win, with odds over +200, winning two would be enough to give me my money back or more.

[RubberKettle]

Momma there goes that man.

Damn he is class

[latinrus]

Excellent write up. Top class stuff in there.


I'm plating Atletico to win in 90'

+150 on Falcao (who scored to win this trophy last season for Porto) is too short. Lots of people seem to be on Bilbao, but I wonder if taking games off in the league will make them dull in front of goal. Bilbao was shutout last three games. Its not like flipping a switch.

Nice bets

[BigTimeWinner]

hit the over on corners

[NotSammySosa]

wasn't there only 11 corners?
u5.5 yellow cards paid off though

[BigTimeWinner]

wasn't there only 11 corners?
u5.5 yellow cards paid off though

I had the over 9.5 at 1,45

[Mr.Kitty]

Well done fellas

My night ended with a few units down the drain. There was about as many cards as I thought, just not on the players I suspected would get booked.

Falcao need to move to a top club.