[gregm]

Bayern/Madrid o2.5/ 3 -155 risk 1.55

Bayern Munich +1 +108 risk 1

I will be on ronaldo to not score a goal when line comes out ( I am going with one of the best defenders in football in Lahm to hopefully contain Ronaldo like he did in the first match. Mourinho ended up putting ronaldo on the left flank. Should be a great matchup to watch )

Strangest game and ending to the Chelsea match I have seen in a very long time. What a great chance for Bayern or Madrid to win the champions league, Chelsea is going to be missing some good players for the final and I think Bayern or Madrid should beat Chelsea.

Bayern may have really ended up Bundesliga play on a flat note but I thought they looked sharp at home against Madrid. Madrid did have a pretty dismal record in Germany winning only one of their last 22 games in Germany, and they didnt face the toughest tests here in champions league play but beating Barcelona at Camp Nou and wrapping up La Liga was impressive.

While Madrid has fantastic numbers at Bernabeu, I think Bayern stands a very good chance to advance here. I am just going to make al play on the handicap, a play on the total and go with my Ronaldo no goal prop. I thought Mourinho would follow the same pattern he did Inter against Barcelona in the champions league final two years ago and attack at home and go for a draw away, he almost had the draw in germany and now Madrid must really go on the attack.

Madrid certainly has been an over machine, they have gone 17-7 on totals over 3 since the start of the year. I really think Bayern has to probably score a goal here to win this and Madrid will certainly be in attack mode from the start.

I don't know if we will see that 4-2-3-1 formation but whatever formation teams play in , I just dont see this as a conservative game. Whenever you have guys like Ronaldo on the pitch and Robben and Ribery on the wings , you are going to see some scoring chances.

[camelbreath$]

I don't think Lahm won't be man marking Ronaldo though, and if he does, he will leave him to attack early and often.

[Nyjrkm06]

keep up the great work.

[gregm]

Thanks Ny and I agree with you camel, I think that any strategy will change game to game with Mourinho at the helm and they switched up Ronaldo in the first leg , to no avail though, they shut him down. Its like Lahm says, its going to take the whole team to stop a guy like ronaldo http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football...ldo_23958.html

I do like the over here alot, Mourinhno got alot of criticism for his defensive and conservative play in the first leg and we still saw 3 goals. http://www.tsn.ca/soccer/story/?id=393523 I definitely think bayern has to score here today to go through and you know Madrid will attack from the start.

I definitely think we will see a wide open game, that total seems like something worthy to hit today.

[gregm]

It was pointed out to me earlier that if I like the over and I think Bayern needs to score, the better number here to take would be bayern to advance over taking Bayern +1. Poor wager on my part unless we see a 1-0 in regulation for Madrid. Going to add a punt on Bayern to advance +134 risk .50

ronaldo to not score a goal +122 risk 1

[true blue 26]

i also think that bayern will at least score one. odds for over 2.5 seem awful. any chance you'd also take over 3.5?

[Coach Potato]

hey gregm, is 154-130 your record for 2012? im a little confuse becauseyou got a thread in the mlb forum saying you are 84 - 63? is that your baseball record? so do you have different records for different sports? and good luck on your plays today, i hope real smash bayern tho lol

[gregm]

Hey coach potato. awesome name, horrible avatar.LOL I keep separate records for each sub forum, this 154-130 is my record for football. Its kind of a pain bopping around to different subforums, I wish sbr just had one tracker sub forum for tracker threads. I need to do a better job of keeping my spreadsheet on here updated every day, it helps me out alot when I do. True blue, maybe just look at over 3 even liner, I just have been looking stats for over/ under on the 3 goals.

That 17-7 is pretty impressive for the over 3 on Madrid this year, a quick glance at their totals and it looks like Madrid are 29-22 for the season for hitting that O 3.5 total. Thats pretty impressive as well.

This game is going to be wide open,if you read that article , Mourinho really got alot of criticism for that conservative play in first leg, and Bayern will have to score, it seems to me, to get through. I just dont see this as 1-0 1-1 type game but we will see.

[KalouKalou]

Lahm (5' 7") on Ronaldo (6' 1")

[gregm]

Messi (5'7" ) against anyone on the planet.

[BigBurk]

Against the crossbar you mean?

[gregm]

True. LOL. Messi was surprisingly a non factor against Madrid at Camp Nou and Chelsea, but I would be just as worried about keeping Messi off the board as I am with my Ronaldo wager. Bayern has been playing really well in the champions league on defense, no one has scored more than two goals yet.

Ronaldo had 42 goals in La Liga this year and 8 in the champions league not to mention the danger of a bayern foul in the box and a penalty kick, victor kassai is the referee here. Ronaldo took way more shots than anyone in La liga including Messi, and having Ozil there just makes this wager even more of a nail biter.

They moved Ronaldo to the left flank on the first leg but Lahm can play just as well as a left or right back. This is not going to be an easy wager but I am going to take a shot here. I dont think any of these wagers are really going to be easy today.

[camelbreath$]

It was pointed out to me earlier that if I like the over and I think Bayern needs to score, the better number here to take would be bayern to advance over taking Bayern +1. Poor wager on my part unless we see a 1-0 in regulation for Madrid. Going to add a punt on Bayern to advance +134 risk .50

ronaldo to not score a goal +122 risk 1

Lol at Ronaldo not to score... 5' goal

[soul786]

ronaldo to not score a goal +122 risk 1

Too bad that pk erases that $$ from the bankroll - hate these kind of props in soccer

[gregm]

True. LOL. Messi was surprisingly a non factor against Madrid at Camp Nou and Chelsea, but I would be just as worried about keeping Messi off the board as I am with my Ronaldo wager. Bayern has been playing really well in the champions league on defense, no one has scored more than two goals yet.

Ronaldo had 42 goals in La Liga this year and 8 in the champions league not to mention the danger of a bayern foul in the box and a penalty kick, victor kassai is the referee here. Ronaldo took way more shots than anyone in La liga including Messi, and having Ozil there just makes this wager even more of a nail biter.

They moved Ronaldo to the left flank on the first leg but Lahm can play just as well as a left or right back. This is not going to be an easy wager but I am going to take a shot here. I dont think any of these wagers are really going to be easy today.

Lol at Ronaldo not to score... 5' goal

Thanks for the update, now its two

[camelbreath$]

Too bad that pk erases that $$ from the bankroll - hate these kind of props in soccer

I'm not sure why anyone makes that bet at only +122. He takes every PK and every free kick as a shot, and has scored a record number of goals this year. I'd bet it only at +300 or so

[soul786]

He just scored his second, Bayern falling apart on defense

[gregm]

I'm not sure why anyone makes that bet at only +122. He takes every PK and every free kick as a shot, and has scored a record number of goals this year. I'd bet it only at +300 or so

It won last game. the over looks likely at least, horrible start for bayern

[camelbreath$]

It won last game. the over looks likely at least, horrible start for bayern

Over is essentially a lock at this point. I have a correct score bet on 3-1 Real Madrid which would be nice.

Cristiano Ronaldo now has 56 goals in 51 games this season, so I would only ever bet him not to score at better than +122...He has scored more than a goal a game, and Champion's League games have so many PK's awarded these days.... just sayin

[showtiime]

[gregm]

2-1 +.17 for the day. Should have put more on bayern to advance. Bayern and Chelsea and a ton of missing players for the final