[gregm]

"You do need a little bit of luck on your side " Di Matteo



it will probably take alot of luck for Chelsea to keep Barcelona from putting the ball into the ole onion bag quite a few times or maybe Chelsea get a counter and an away goal. The huge, and I mean huge difference, will be between playing on the wide open pitch at Camp Nou versus the tighter layout of Stamford bridge. Chelsea has not lost at Stamford bridge this year and its one of the best home field advantages in football. You can watch the Chelsea home games and see how close the fans are to the field and everything about Stamford bridge was perfect for Chelsea to get the kind of result they did in the first leg.

This match is going to be like watching a half field scrimmage today with Barcelona playing offense and Chelsea packed in playing defense. It is not going to be a pretty game for sure. It is really is going to be a one sided contest but if Chelsea has a lucky counter and an away goal or can just use that Inter strategy and just pack that back line in and continue to frustrate Barcelona in their offensive system, they may have an outside chance here. There are major weaknesses with Barcas back line and there will be opportunities, albeit very few, to pick up that away goal.

Inter beat Barcelona 2 years ago in the champions league with the same sort of massive difference in possession between the two clubs with probably even worse possession numbers than what we will see today with the Barcelona/Chelsea match. Inter did it with 10 men and Mourinhno just beat Barca again in another huge match, going into Camp Nou and pulled something of a massive upset and actually beat Barcelona.

If Chelsea can use the superior height and get a few corners here and set pieces and if Drogba is good to go , they can use that height against a smaller Barca team and that certainly was one aspect of the game where I thought Chelsea looked dominant in the first leg. One thing I would look at is whether Drogba is able to go or they play Torres. Huge loss for Chelsea if Drogba is not able to go. Chelsea has contained Messi in all of their matches and their was some fitness concerns with Messi but he did practice this week. Messi looked pretty lifeless against Madrid last weekend.

You are probably better off not wagering on this game unless you look for Barca props or just take a punt on a Barca 2 or 3 goal victory here but even the props are priced to the point of being unplayable. I am going to take a punt on this half time wager and I hope Chelsea can pack that defense in Inter style and frustrate Barcelona in the first half.

Chelsea 1st half (+.5 +1) -102 risk 2.04

Tue 4/24		10333 Barcelona wins & Chelsea no goals		+115
2:45PM		10334 Any other result		-135

Risk 1.35

Interesting article on referee in second leg and claims of Barca bias

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/f...m-7669029.html

I am actually a huge Messi fan but I really would like to see a good match. I really think its going to be basically a half field contest the entire time, the Bayern game should be alot more fun to watch.

[camelbreath$]

Crazy, my big play is completely opposite, I have Barca winning at half big time.

[gregm]

Your wager camel is probably the better one, even if it were somehow 0-0 in the last few minutes of the first half, it is totally going to be a game where I am hoping Chelsea can hold on even in the last minutes of the first half. I am just hoping this Drogba knee problem is just strategy and he goes today. Barcelona will press that whole first half and if Chelsea can counter and get Drogba free there is small chance they could even get a goal. Very small chance.

Even in half field scrimmages I have practiced with, defensive teams have the advantage when they can clog up the middle of the field, this is going to be a half field scrimmage basically for most of the game.