[TheSportsAnalyst]

I've just turned off the alarm and BOOOM, earthquake near my home.
What a good way to wake up.

After a big failing thread (caused by my total ineptitude in capping soccer winners) I've decided to switch back on my first (and probably only) wat to be profitable in soccer: O/U.
Once again, I'm not a good capper, this is clear, but I like stats and O/U are more predictable than 1X2 with a good stats database.

My first thread was an experiment with a little money on it, as I said at the start of it, but it failed.
This is my second (and last) try. I opened a new discussion hoping to keep bad luck in the old thread because I'm so pissed off and I really need a fresh start.

I'm not claiming I am the best capper in the world.
I'm not even claiming I am a good soccer capper.
I'm not claiming I will make a lot of money and I'm not claiming I'll not lose one cent since now.
I'm just switching off my brain and stop guessing.
I'm opening my db with something like 5 years of O/U data in all over the world and trying to make something good out of it.
Tail, fade (I'll never recommend to fade me but probably is not a bad idea) or just have fun watching me burning my BR and leaving the gambling world forever.
It's up to you.

[A little info for everyone: here in North Italy snow is expected for this weekend. Probably every game scheduled for sunday in Emilia-Romagna and Liguria will be postponed: Genoa - Napoli and maybe also Milan - Cagliari (scheduled in the night) are likely to be canceled. It's just a personal preview, right now, but weather forecast is clear.]

[TheSportsAnalyst]

GREECE - BETA ETHNIKI

Platanias vs Ethnikos Asteras (Under 2.5) @1.52

A little breakdown:
Platanias, league leader, at home 1 goal conceded after 6 matches (4 conceded overall in 12 matches - 0.33 avg.). This season 6/6 unders at home.
Ethnikos, mid-table, 2 goals scored away from home in 4 matches (7 in 11 matches this season) and 0 goals conceded (3 in 11 matches - 0.37 avg.). This season 4/4 unders away.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Once again a 90'+ score, absolutely useless.
Oh lucky lucky.

[BigTimeWinner]

I'm on this with you mate ... I love betting on O/U even though I play parlays so it is really hard to combine 3-4 games and win them all.

Here is what I got for tomorrow:
Ivory coast - burkina faso over 2.5 ivory coast are a quality team, so is burkina faso, I see both teams scoring at least 1 goal each
Standard - Mons over 2.5 obviously the home team is better and mons seems to score a lot of goals home and away
Milan - lazio over 2.5 should be an open match with a lot of chances to score for both teams.
levante - Valencia over 2.5 levante will be trying to score an early goal since they are down by 3 goals from the first match, this will be either a goal for levante, or valencia in counter attack. I expect an away victory, but just for the sake of O/U im going with over again ...

well those are my tips for tomorrow, good luck to you TheSportsAnalyst, hopefully we can combine some great winning tips.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Hi BigTimeWinner!

Too short card today for me, but I've looked at your selections and I have some thoughts...
The over on St. Liege match looks good (inf Mons will be able to score a goal you probably hit without problems), and I like also the over on Ivory Coast (too many upset on 1X2 or O/U in this ACN), but I would advice to avoid Cup games, especially here in Italy.
Last two weeks I've seen too much money wasted on OU or AH in Coppa Italia matches... This competition is absolutely random my friend...

Anyway good luck and enjoy your day!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

PORTUGAL - LIGA DE HONRA

Estoril vs Atletico Clube de Portugal (Under 2.5) @1.56


Why this match?
League leader vs #4 team in Liga de Honra.
Estoril has scored only 5 goals in 7 home matches this season (t-#2 worst in the league), the overall avg. is 1.19 goals for in 16 games.
Defensively they are a vey good team, with only one score conceded at home.
Atletico is an average offensive team, which struggles away from home, where they have scored only 6 goals in 7 matches (less than 1 per game). They have also the 3rd best defense in Liga de Honra.
Trends:
Estoril is 7/7 on under at home this season.
Atletico last three games went under.
H2H:
Last time they met (in August) Atletico won 1-0.
TSA extimated probabilities to hit (rounded):
70/75%

[golfhotel95476]

i like it !!!! lets cash this

[corst]

GL

[BigTimeWinner]

Hi BigTimeWinner!

Too short card today for me, but I've looked at your selections and I have some thoughts...
The over on St. Liege match looks good (inf Mons will be able to score a goal you probably hit without problems), and I like also the over on Ivory Coast (too many upset on 1X2 or O/U in this ACN), but I would advice to avoid Cup games, especially here in Italy.
Last two weeks I've seen too much money wasted on OU or AH in Coppa Italia matches... This competition is absolutely random my friend...

Anyway good luck and enjoy your day!

yeah I agree with you, but the limited selection makes me pick some random games... waiting for the weekend with a bigger selection of matches

[Gndias]

i am with you...two broke teams and both teams playing some ugly soccer here in Portugal

[BigTimeWinner]

odds dropped a lot on some of my tips for some reason at 5dimes ... standard odds for over 3 were 2,1x , now 1,917
Ivory coast odds for over 2.5 were 2,1x, now 1,935 .....

[TheSportsAnalyst]

i am with you...two broke teams and both teams playing some ugly soccer here in Portugal

Glad to hear this from a Portuguese user...

@BigTimeWinner: Thursday really sucks. Especially when Europa League is on its winter break. But March is not far and I think our saturdays/sundays will be veeery busy. Probably too much.
BTW... Ivory Coast 1-0 at 16'!

[Gndias]

tks man,if you need any help let me know

[BigTimeWinner]

Glad to hear this from a Portuguese user...

@BigTimeWinner: Thursday really sucks. Especially when Europa League is on its winter break. But March is not far and I think our saturdays/sundays will be veeery busy. Probably too much.
BTW... Ivory Coast 1-0 at 16'!

yea, ivory scored a goal and then they backed up ... hope there will be two more on the second half...
one goal in milan already

milan 1-1 , waiting on standard now ... and later valencia

lol easy over in milan ...

wohooo two goals by standard

[simon2012]

i also have almost same parlay as u big time i have to win only

ivory coast
standard
milan
valencia
penarol
bol with yours

just cashed these

[BigTimeWinner]

I'm on this with you mate ... I love betting on O/U even though I play parlays so it is really hard to combine 3-4 games and win them all.

Here is what I got for tomorrow:
Ivory coast - burkina faso over 2.5 ivory coast are a quality team, so is burkina faso, I see both teams scoring at least 1 goal each
Standard - Mons over 2.5 obviously the home team is better and mons seems to score a lot of goals home and away
Milan - lazio over 2.5 should be an open match with a lot of chances to score for both teams.
levante - Valencia over 2.5 levante will be trying to score an early goal since they are down by 3 goals from the first match, this will be either a goal for levante, or valencia in counter attack. I expect an away victory, but just for the sake of O/U im going with over again ...

well those are my tips for tomorrow, good luck to you TheSportsAnalyst, hopefully we can combine some great winning tips.

well there goes my ****** up luck ... I'll never bet on the africans anymore, their self confidence and their attempt to show off made me miss this bet, they should have easily scored one more goal if they didnt try shooting from like 35 meters away from the goal trying to score amazing goals ...

Other bets ,besides valencia whos 0-2 up at HT, are over 2.5 ... valencia should be too. So I had a parlay with all these 4 games, to win 2000$ but thanks to the stupid african players I didn't ...

Lesson for the next time.

[Gndias]

ivory coast sucks...big names and no play's....just look at what they did on the last world cup....

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Oh boy. Another 3-0 from an offenseless squad.
I can resurrect dead teams.
Maybe I have to make a living on this.

[BigTimeWinner]

for tomorrow I like over 2.5 on the following games:
Chesterfield - bournemouth
everton - fulham
pescara - modena

simply for the fact that these teams seem to have score a lot of goals recently and H2H stats.

Will try to add more explanation before the games start.

[Gndias]

good luck

[TheSportsAnalyst]

CYPRUS - FIRST DIVISION

Anorthosis Famagusta vs Alki Larnaca (Under 2.5) @1.95

Why this match?
#2 vs #9 in Cyprus First Division.
Anorthosis had collected only 7 goals against in 17 matches (0.41 avg) and at home they have yet to score more than two goals this season.
Alki has an absolutely anemic offense away from home, with only 6 goals in 8 games but they usually allow big teams to score more than 2 goals.
Good odds though, so I give it a try.
Trends:
Anorthosis is 6/7 unders at home.
H2H:
Last time they met (in October) Anorthosis won 3-1.
TSA extimated probabilities to hit (rounded):
55%-60%

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Creteil vs SAS Espinal (Over 2.5) @1.78 (France - National)

Bookies are sharpening the lines on this. I like it.


Almere City vs Emmen (O 2.5) @1.54 (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie)

Dordrecht vs Zwolle (O 2.5) @1.70 (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie)

Fortuna Sittard vs Helmond Sport (O 2.5) @1.58 (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Cyprus.. My love.

Now let's go with the overs!

GL with your picks BigTime!

[SharpBoxing]

What are your stats so far in this thread

[TheSportsAnalyst]

What are your stats so far in this thread

Not good my friend (1 W - 2 L / -1.05). Let's see how the weekend is going... Then I can advice you to fade or tail...

[SharpBoxing]

Good luck and dont give up to quick.

Making profit or losing money in the short term has to do with luck.
Being profitable in the long term is what seperates sharps from the squares.

[Marginalis]

Once again a 90'+ score, absolutely useless.
Oh lucky lucky.

[BigTimeWinner]

for tomorrow I like over 2.5 on the following games:
Chesterfield - bournemouth
everton - fulham
pescara - modena

simply for the fact that these teams seem to have score a lot of goals recently and H2H stats.

Will try to add more explanation before the games start.

chesterfield and bournemouth had a lot of chances for goals but they couldn't score

[TheSportsAnalyst]

After another disappointing day (2 W - 3 L / -1.35) I've already taken something from early games tomorrow.


[12 pm CET/6 am ET] Mallorca B vs Manacor (Over 2.5) @1.90 (Spain - Segunda Division B)

[2 pm CET/8 am ET] Hereford United vs Shrewsbury Town (Over 2.5) @2.18 (England- League Two)

[2 pm CET/8 am ET] Jahn Regensburg vs VfL Osnabrück (Under 2.5) @1.78 (Germany - 3. Liga)

[2 pm CET/8 am ET] Saarbrücken vs SV Babelsberg 03 (Over 2.5) @1.87 (Germany - 3. Liga)

[2 pm CET/8 am ET] Sandhausen vs Unteraching (Over 2.5) @2.05 (Germany - 3. Liga)

[2 pm CET/8 am ET] Kaiserslautern II vs Fortuna Dusseldorf II (Over 2.5) @1.80 (Germany - Regionalliga)

[2 pm CET/8 am ET] Wuppertaler vs Fortuna Köln (Over 2.5) @1.72 (Germany - Regionalliga)

[2 pm CET/8 am ET] Birkirkara vs Floriana (Under 2.5) @2.00 (Malta - Premier League)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

[Double post, sorry.]

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Easy cash at 36' on Mallorca one.
Good start.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Added another match.


[2.30 pm CET/8.30 am ET] Nantes vs Tours (Over 2.5) @2.15 (France - Ligue 2)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Saarbrücken hit at HT.
Regensburg match postponed (probably voided).

2-0-1 +1.77 for today but sloppy games in Germany.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Today's record is 4-4-1 (-0.18)

No games pending.


[5 pm CET/11 am ET] Olimpiakos Nicosia vs Ethnikos Achnas (Under 2.5) @1.53 (Cyprus - First Division)

[5.45 pm CET/11.45 am ET] Maccabi Haifa/Hapoel Beer Sheva (Over 2.5) @1.96 (Israel - Ligat ha'Al)

[6 pm CET/12 pm ET] Luzenac vs Niort (Over 2.5) @1.86 (France - National)

[6 pm CET/12 pm ET] Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao (Over 2.5) @2.05 (Spain - Primera Division)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

[6 pm CET/12 pm ET] Guadalajara vs Numancia (Over 2.5) @2.07 (Spain - Segunda Division)

[6 pm CET/12 pm ET] Sabadell vs Xerez Deportivo (Over 2.5) @2.11 (Spain - Primera Division)