[GGG]

#57 - Levante/Real Zaragoza (O 2.5) (Spain - Primera Division) @2.210

Good odds for a try here: Levante is probably the most underrated team in La Liga and they have a very good offense. They won three games this season scoring at least three goals at home, and every opponent faced is surely better than Zaragoza.

Good luck. I'm on Zaragoza DNB @ 3.30.
Lets get a 1-2 win for Zaragoza

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#58 - Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 (Germany - Bundesliga) @1.990

I like Bayer: they've not finished well 2011 and I think they're angry to start well new year. Mainz was not in good shape in december too, and today they've not some key players, like Ivanschitz, in the lineup.


Thank you GGG and GL to you!!!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Thanks Milan for a useless 3-0 at 89'.
Thanks Udine's referee for a 94' useless penalty, just before the final whistle.

Final minutes are killing me.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#59 - Draw (Al Nasr vs Al Ain) (UAE - UAE League) @3.75

Draw project here. Big match in UAE between table-leader Al Ain and Al Nasr.
Al Ain is the fav for the bookies but Al Nasr is coached by an italian legend (ex-goalkeeper Walter Zenga) who is a really competitive and good trainer (he won several titles with Steaua and Red Star).
Zenga one year ago was Al Ain trainer but he left the team as a consequence of financial issues. Al Ain is surely the best team in UAE (their star is Asamoah Gyan, 10 goals in 9 cap this year, has finally not left the team) but Walter is a very tough person and I think he could get a draw here.
KO in about 10 minutes.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#60 - Southampton vs Leicester City (England - Championship) @1.90

This is gonna be the bet of the day in football world. Saints are looking at first place and (for H2H lovers) Leicester did not win in Southampton recently.
The absence of Ricky Lambert has caused some problems to Southampton but at home they are a lock, best team in the league and probably team with best record in english football (11 W - 0 L - 1 D / 30 GF 8 GA).
Key missing in Leicester is Sol Bamba (now with his national team in Africa Cup of Nations) and their recent poor performances in the league make me strongly confident in tonight match.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#61 - Villarreal/Sporting Gijon (O 2.5) (Spain - Primer Division) @2.35

Both teams are capable to concede 2 goals in this kind of match-up and it's Spain, so I'm pretty sure they are gonna score at least one goal each.
2-1 (probably for Villareal but who knows?) is my most likely score for tonight.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#62 - Portimonense (+0.25) vs Moreirense (Portugal - Liga de Honra) @2.05

#63 - Portimonense/Moreirense (O 2.5) (Portugal - Liga de Honra) @2.33

#64 - Olhanense vs Sporting Lisbon (Portugal - Portuguese Liga) @1.67

[true blue 26]

would you handicap sporting or southampton by any chance? cheers

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Hi trueblue.

If you're aggressive you could use a -0.75 on Southampton (avg. odds at 2.08 right now) but without Lambert is a little bit non-sense for me.
Absolutely no AH on Sporting, their last results are barely acceptable so I'll take the win on ML.

[true blue 26]

sounds great thanks

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#65 - Sivasspor (-0.5) vs Antalyaspor AS (Turkey - SuperLiga) @2.00

In recent past Sivasspor was able to gain good results both at home and away.
Antalyaspor went from a couple of big wins, before being stopped by Besiktas last friday.
I like home team: they are so good when at Sivas and they're looking for Euro cups berth, plus the odds at even are a good reward.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TSA 2012 RECORD (Since Jan. 16th)

29 W - 35 L
-$216.55 ($25 on every bet) / -8.66 Units (out of 64.00 units staked)

Hit rate: 45.31%
Avg. Odds: 2.053
Net ROI: -13.53%
Bank: $783.45(/$1,000.00)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#66 - Besiktas/Gaziantepspor (U 2.5) (Turkey - Super Liga) @1.89

I see a clear 2-0 here. Very hard for Gaziantepspor to score, Besiktas is not a high-scoring team at home like Fener or Galatasaray (they are more balanced between H/A) so low risk for a blowout.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#67 - Anderlecht vs KAA Gent (Belgium -Jupiler League) @1.57

Anderlecht is once again best team in Belgium and they've yet to lose an home game this season.
With a win today they're headed to the title (they can only lose it), gaining a +9 over Gent.
H2H are absolutely on Anderlecht side and Gent has some injured/missing players for tonight. No doubt on it.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#68 - Stevenage Borough vs Milton Keynes Dons (+0) (England - League One) @2.04

#69 - Draw (AFC Wimbledon vs Macclesfield Town) (England - League Two) @3.65

#70 - Torquay United vs Dagenham & Redbridge (England - League Two) @1.59

[jules11]

Juve vs Roma - Copa Italia @ 2:45 pm

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#71 - Draw (Bath City vs Alfreton Town) (England - Conference) @3.60

#72 - Lincoln City/Southport (O 2.5) (England - Conference) @1.79

[Semper Fidelis]

Hey there friend, will you be touching the Italian cup game today? This seems like a hard pick because both teams are in very good form right now! Italian soccer is your strength, right? Love to hear your insight on this match!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Well Semper Fidelis, I think tonight matchup in Italy must be a no bet for just a reason: odds seem absolutely perfect.
Juventus coach, Conte, yesterday said Juventus has no choice in what trophy they prefere to compete b/c without Euro Cups Coppa Italia is the only alternative to scudetto and Serie A.
But Roma is growing... L. Enrique has created a mentality there in Rome...
I see Juve as the fav but no so much to place a wager on bianconeri at this odds (even on most bookies) and Roma... Really don't know. In Rome they could win but in Turin...

[Semper Fidelis]

The only thing I was leaning toward is the under, but that might be too risky considering the potent offenses of both these teams. Perhaps a no bet really is the better play here!

[SlickRick1382]

Absolutely not. I flatbet so 25 bets=25 units. And it's saturday. Guys with plenty of experience, like GGG, yesterday have wagered 25/30 units... During the week, as you can see, I had an avg. of about 3/4 units, while the total avg. of soccer bettors is surely higher. Everyone has his method. More matches=more possibilities to find an edge for me. I don't like placing units in midweek just for fun (I'm not saying it's wrong, just my opinion) but on saturday there's a lot of action usually and I like to place more bets. Someone prefers 5/10 units in one/two/three bets every day, me not. Don't look at the number, look at the units... I've seen 25/30 units staked on friday by someone. Probably this was over doing it. But, again, everyone has his method... Ehi, Rick, appreciate your advice, for real.

I'm one who prefers to bet more games that I feel like I have an edge in as well so your method sits well with me. Just seemed like a lot from my perspective for a day but if you know what you're doing then by all means continue. Wasn't trying to question you and I do enjoy reading your picks =)

Best of luck going forward ...

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Experiment failed.
Very frustrated by my absolute inability to cap a soccer game.
Favourites hit at 80% (and it's good because I keep odds around 1.50/1.55) but draws and dogs... what a mess.
I'm done.
Don't know what to do now...
In the past I've been pretty good with O/U but they really don't attract me so much.
I'm a bad capper and we know but I'm a good stats analyzer and O/U are pretty much stats than feelings (IMHO).
I can keep a separate thread with O/U if anyone interested but I'll sure stop this one because I suck, I really suck.

And, of course, once again, final minutes kill my draw (and the possibility to be up for the day).
Nice job TSA, nice job.
I seriously have to stop putting my knowledge in this and use my stats to cap the OU or I'm gonna kill my bankroll.
Apologize for my bad capping. Sorry guys. Really sorry.