1. 01-17-12 12:28 PM #36
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Final pick for today:

    #7 Colwin Bay/Vauxhall Motors (O 2.5) (England - Blue Square North) @1.600
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  2. 01-17-12 01:17 PM #37
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    A little explanation for every selection (sorry for the delay).

    #4 - Ebbsfleet and Hayes have two not so bad offenses, despite their table position, but first and foremost Hayes at home concedes 2.0 goal/game and Ebbsfleet 1.5 in its away matches. Plus it's midweek and this kind of match could be really overscoring.
    Ebbsfleet is the fav but I really think they concede at least one score to Hayes.
    #5 - A struggling team in Championship at home againts a really struggling team in League Two. First game between Milwall and Dagenham was a draw but now it's really a different story. Millwall is at home, pressured and I think @1.51 it is a good value.
    #6 - Worst home defense against 2nd best away offense. Probably Glentoran could be able to cover the over alone.
    #7 - It's a bonus selection. I like Colwyn Bay and I'm waiting for this match. Probably the riskiest pick of today.
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  3. 01-17-12 03:40 PM #38
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    #4 - Ebbsfleet 1-2 W
    #5 - Millwall 5-0 W
    #6 - Ballymena United 0-3 W
    #7 - Colwin Bay 0-0 L

    Jan. 17 Total: 3 W - 1 L / +$19.35

    Finally I had my good day.
    Ebbsfleet won but conceded the score I saw; Millwall destroyed Dag&Red; Glentoran covered the 2.5 alone and the risky pick didn't hit.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    TSA 2012 RECORD (Since Jan. 16th)

    4 W - 3 L
    -$20.95 ($25 on every bet)

    Hit rate: 57.14%
    Avg. Odds: 1.770
    Net ROI: -11.97%
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  4. 01-18-12 08:58 AM #39
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Let's start another day.


    #8 - Ittihad El-Shorta - Al Ahly (Egypt - Premier League) @1.900

    Line is dropping very much lately in favour of Al Ahli. Match is placed in Cairo (same city for the two teams) so it's not really an away match for them. Al Ahli is undefeated this season, but Ittihad had conceded only one goal at home in 6 matches so far: it was just one week ago, when they lost their match against ENPPI (mid-table team).
    I really like away teams in Egypt (not my favourite league for betting but I found it better than some division 2 in Europe) and last matchup between these two teams was 9 months ago, Al Ahly won 2-1 in Ittihad stadium.
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  5. 01-18-12 09:22 AM #40
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    #9 - Panathinaikos/Doxa Dramas (U 2.5) (Greece - Super League) @2.410

    It seems a little weird? Not for me. Doxa will not score in this game, of course (division II players in the team), but they are so good in defense recently they already took of a 0-0 from Olympiacos (10 days ago) and they conceded only one goal to AEK in Athens. 2-0 Panathinaikos? Not impossible IMHO and the payout is really interesting. That's what I'm looking for.
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  6. 01-18-12 10:24 AM #41
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    #10 - Laval/Istres (O 2.5) (France - Ligue 2) @2.470

    I love this pick. For me it is at least a 50%-50% between over and under, if not 55-45 (in over direction) and I got it at 2.47.
    If I have to pick a match from the full Ligue 2 schedule tonight which could be over I would pick this one with no doubts. Istres is an high scoring team and it really could be a three goals game.
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  7. 01-18-12 11:01 AM #42
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    #11 - Sedan vs Le Mans (France - Ligue 2) @1.909

    At full roster it could be a huge value but without Ramè in the lineup Sedan would face some difficulties against Le Mans. I hope in the home factor though I'm not really confident about a Sedan W, because of high draw-danger. Anyway a Sedan +0.5 is offered @1.22 so I'm gonna take the moneyline.
    I suggest you to take a look also at the O/U because the under doesn't seem so sure.
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  8. 01-18-12 11:40 AM #43
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    15' at Cairo, Al Ahli is really pushing (incredible crowd) and they have already missed a clear chance.
    Beautiful open match between Pana and Doxa, but probably home team will score in about 10'-15' minutes.
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  9. 01-18-12 01:08 PM #44
    golfhotel95476
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    wow dude i wish i show this early today you got great views on your picks
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  10. 01-18-12 01:51 PM #45
    pellumb341
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    aek - doxa has finished 0-0 ...

    good job TSA
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  11. 01-18-12 01:56 PM #46
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Thank you golf and thank you pellumb.

    Al Ahly won but it was not sure till the end of the game.
    Panathinaikos game was really a siege but they found a score only in the final minutes. I felt so sorry for Doxa because they defended so good (helped by an absymal Pana offense, for sure). Home team had also two chances in first half, both stopped for suspect offsides.

    The evening games are looking less good: Laval is 1-0 but the match is so slow, it's a midfield battle. I see Istres coming back, because except a little piece of first half (nearly after the score) they had control of the match, but if they don't score in 15'-20' the over is in serious danger.
    Sedan is struggling, their replacement keeper doesn't look very good.

    Let's see what we get, at least we're already in green for today.
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  12. 01-18-12 03:24 PM #47
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Well Laval finally won 2-1 and we hit 3 out of 4 today.
    Not bad, especially considering the very short card tomorrow.


    #8 - Al Ahly 1-0 W
    #9 - Panathinaikos 1-0 W
    #10 - Laval 2-1 W
    #11 - Sedan 0-2 L


    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    TSA 2012 RECORD (Since Jan. 16th)

    7 W - 4 L
    +$48.55 ($25 on every bet) / +1.94 Units (out of 11.00 units staked)

    Hit rate: 63.64%
    Avg. Odds: 1.872
    Net ROI: +17.65%
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  13. 01-19-12 05:35 AM #48
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Good morning guys! Short card today but I have found something.


    #12 - Telephonaat Bani Suweif vs Al Ittihad Al Sakandary (Draw) (Egypt - Premier League) @3.100

    Usually I don't pick so late but today I forgot Egypt had a match so early. Basically these are two teams in bad form, recently they had awful days against bigger teams and their position in the standings is dropping.
    I don't like so much the odds because Bani Suweif recently wasn't able to win even relatively easy matches (like against Petrojet), while Al Ittihad had collected some points but finally only at home.
    Bani Suweif gave not me the right idea they would win easily today (but for sure they'll trying to) and I doubt Al Ittihad could get more than one point here, so I'll go with the draw. Payout is not bad and yes, I think there are some chances to hit.
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  14. 01-19-12 06:31 AM #49
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    #13 - Haras El Hedoud vs El Gounah (Egypt - Premier League) @1.500

    Yesterday I saw Al Ahly match: a very good team. Haras is not far, plus they are on fire and they already won with teams of the same caliber as El Gounah recently.
    They are at home and it is a very long travel for El Gounah, a mid-table team not so bad but a clear underdog in today's match.
    For me it's a low risk pick with an adequate reward but keep a look at the line because, as yesterday, probably we'll see it dropping in favour of Haras about one hour before the match and it could easily go around 1.400. So if you're interested in taking El Hedoud I suggest to pick it now.
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  15. 01-19-12 08:33 AM #50
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Damn.
    Match #12 was a draw for about 95% of the time. Al Sakandary scored around 80' and shortly after this Bani Suweif made 1-1.
    Taking the 2-1 (and the loss) at 93' always hurt.
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  16. 01-19-12 08:37 AM #51
    SlickRick1382
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    What Sportsbook do you use to make bets in the Egyptian League? 5Dimes doesn't offer that for soccer.

    Thanks
    Rick
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  17. 01-19-12 08:38 AM #52
    GGG
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    Yeah. Sucks big time. Happened for me as well, in the exact same min. yesterday, 93', very last second
    But rather lose a close one and know you were on to something than shooting way off.
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  18. 01-19-12 08:39 AM #53
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickRick1382 View Post
    What Sportsbook do you use to make bets in the Egyptian League? 5Dimes doesn't offer that for soccer. Thanks Rick
    Bet 365, but I don't know if it allows US users.
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  19. 01-19-12 08:42 AM #54
    GGG
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    One thing I don't understand. How do you know anything about the Egypt, Premier league?

    I see everyone on this forum betting at the Middle Eastern leagues.
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  20. 01-19-12 08:42 AM #55
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGG View Post
    Yeah. Sucks big time. Happened for me as well, in the exact same min. yesterday, 93', very last second
    But rather lose a close one and know you were on to something than shooting way off.
    Yes man, it's a little less harder to swallow.
    But damn, again.
    Short card day losses always makes me nervous.
    Whatever, I'm gonna take a shower...

    [I'm in Italy, here we've a lot of egyptian guys and Egypt is not so far. I like their soccer, think is sometimes underrated. I started watching it because I'm searching something exotic a couple years ago.
    But I confess, I know only Egyptian league, don't know anything about Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq or something like that as Roxxy... ]
    Last edited by TheSportsAnalyst; 01-19-12 at 08:45 AM.
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  21. 01-19-12 08:48 AM #56
    MatI
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSportsAnalyst View Post
    Damn.
    Match #12 was a draw for about 95% of the time. Al Sakandary scored around 80' and shortly after this Bani Suweif made 1-1.
    Taking the 2-1 (and the loss) at 93' always hurt.
    Bad luck with this one. I liked your play and after seeing how the first few mins played out, took Suweif AH 0.0. That way I get a push if it is a draw. Lots less stress, and turned out a winner!
    Last edited by MatI; 01-19-12 at 08:56 AM.
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  22. 01-19-12 08:53 AM #57
    GGG
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    Ok
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  23. 01-19-12 10:44 AM #58
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    What a funny afternoon.

    At 93' I've lost, at 92' I win.
    But what a sloppy performance by Haras. They were not able to compete in the first 75' and then they found their first shot on goal (since the red card) only after 10 (!!!) minutes.
    Anyway, a win is a win and a loss is a loss.
    My luck (at least one half of it ) is back.
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  24. 01-19-12 10:59 AM #59
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    #14 - Inter Milan vs Genoa (Italy - Coppa Italia) @1.431

    Yes, me too. Inter is a lock in Coppa Italia: they went to the final 6 times in the last 7 years, even in 2011 when they faced a nightmare season after a domination period in Italy (and a CL won).
    They're at home and their lineup looks good (Pazzini and Milito probably in, but no Forlan again injured), as Genoa coach Marino is planning to rest some of his starters (yesterday he says Frey and Palacio, among others).
    I'm gonna take it now because once the lineups will be out I think the line could steam for Inter.
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  25. 01-19-12 11:29 AM #60
    Semper Fidelis
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    Hey there buddy, do you think taking the spread in the inter game is safe as well? I know genoa isn't very good on the road, but don't know if inter can win by more than one goal. Or would it just be safer to take the moneyline in this instance? Thanks for your help and advice!
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  26. 01-19-12 11:38 AM #61
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Hi Semper Fidelis.
    If this match happens in a regular Serie A week I say yes (probably -1 without problems, -1.25 if you're aggressive) but it's a Cup.
    Have you seen AC Milan yesterday? I don't like handicaps, because in the past screwed things up for me but sometime they work.
    For sure I don't advice to take AH (or spreads) in Cup games, first and foremost in Italy.
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  27. 01-19-12 11:44 AM #62
    mumbles12
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    does it bother you that the ML is dropping like a rock....started -270 this morning down to -235....goal line has gone from -1 1/2 this morning to -1 1/4....seems like the fix is in.....
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  28. 01-19-12 06:23 PM #63
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Sorry mumbles, went out for a volleyball game tonight and I missed your question.

    Not a good match for Inter but they hit with easiness (apparently).
    Loss for the day is about 0.07, pretty much a no play.

    #12 - Telephonaat Bani Suweif 2-1 L
    #13 - Haras El Hedoud 1-0 W
    #14 - Inter Milan 2-1 W

    I hope we can get back in profit tomorrow: I've just checked and I see a good and depth list of games, a good way to approach saturday and sunday.
    I'll start capping and posting picks for tomorrow not before 1 p.m. CET (7 a.m. ET) but probably the majority of picks will be out around 4 p.m. CET (12 p.m. ET), so have a good night guys!

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    TSA 2012 RECORD (Since Jan. 16th)

    9 W - 5 L
    +$46.78 ($25 on every bet) / +1.87 Units (out of 14.00 units staked)

    Hit rate: 64.29%
    Avg. Odds: 1.902
    Net ROI: +13.36%
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  29. 01-20-12 09:29 AM #64
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    #15 Gaziantepspor vs Mersin Idman Yurdu (Turkey - SuperLiga) @2.150

    Recently laying Mersin had been very profitable, they've lost at home against a strong relegation candidate like Ankaragucu and probably this is gonna be a very tight match.
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  30. 01-20-12 09:57 AM #65
    Romanov
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSportsAnalyst View Post
    #15 Gaziantepspor vs Mersin Idman Yurdu (Turkey - SuperLiga) @2.150 Recently laying Mersin had been very profitable, they've lost at home against a strong relegation candidate like Ankaragucu and probably this is gonna be a very tight match.
    so did you take gazian to win or a pk? i am assuming to win because of the odds but you say it is going to be a tight match...
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  31. 01-20-12 10:13 AM #66
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romanov View Post
    so did you take gazian to win or a pk? i am assuming to win because of the odds but you say it is going to be a tight match...
    Sorry Romanov, I'll take Gaziantep.
    Yes, I think is gonna be a tight match but pk has no value for me there...
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  32. 01-20-12 10:45 AM #67
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    #16 - Emmen vs AGOVV Apeldoorn (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie) @1.800

    Emmen is kinda a project team, very young and with several injuries concerns but AGOVV will be relegated in April and even if recently they have shown some fighting personality I think Emmen remains the fav for this match.
    Usually Jupiler League in Holland is not my favourite league but this season I've performed very well so I'll take home team.
    Considering the league I've seen some cappers taking the -1 line: I don't like this choice very much.


    #17 - Emmen/AGOVV Apeldoorn (O 2.5) (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie) @1.633

    Same match, I took also the over.


    #18 - Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie) @2.370

    Value selection here: home fav with (I think) around 50% of win at a very good price.


    #19 - Helmond Sport/MVV Maastricht (O 2.5) (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie) @1.645

    Probably this is the league with most over games in the world. I'll add this to my daily schedule.
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  33. 01-20-12 11:05 AM #68
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    #20 - Telstar/Fortuna Sittard (O 2.5) (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie) @1.641

    Late pick. Line has jumped few minutes ago to an acceptable price on my book so I'll take it. Telstar conceded a lot of goals at home and so is Fortuna Sittard away from its stadium. Not much prolific offenses though, but the goal for today is to hit 2 out of 3 over and make some money.
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  34. 01-20-12 11:42 AM #69
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    #21 - Academica Coimbra vs Uniao Leiria (Portugal - Portuguese Liga) @2.000

    Could be the bet of the day or a terrible mistake. Academica is not a bad team, very nice to watch but absolutely inconsistent with the results. Leiria has some injured key players and for a terrible team, as they really are, could be enough: in 2011 they've lost against Gil Vicente (not far from Academica performances) and also Feirense (relegation candidate).
    Odds are so high because Academica has not collected a win at home since september but trends are made to be broken, so I take Coimbra.


    That's all for today guys, best of luck!!!
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  35. 01-20-12 12:16 PM #70
    Semper Fidelis
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    How confident are you on the academica game? I was thinking about that one as well, but the head-to-head record is making me nervous at pulling the trigger. It seems that of the 9 times they've played each other at academica, academica has only won once and either drawn or lost the other eight times. I realize these teams are different from past years, but does history like that play a part in soccer at all like it does in many American sports? Or does it really matter because leiria is that bad and are missing their best players? Once again, I appreciate your advice-makes me feel so much better as I don't know soccer near as well as I know American sports!
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