[kelme]

Hy,

I recently started to watch the moves of the odds in the over 1.5 (if there are no goals or 1 goal in 1st half), 2.5 (if there is 1 goal or 2 in the 1st half) markets by the finish of the first half till the begginnig of the second half.

So in all the game markets that I looked at, the odds started to drop. So I decided to trade the over/under 1.5 market between GL.Celtic and GL.Rangers.The quota went from 1.63 to 1.57 or 1.58 (don't remember). The 1st half finished 0-0.

I backed the quota for under 1.5 and by the start of the 2nd half I created a small profit - so since I couldn't get surprised by a gol, I backed it with a higher stake and my profit was around 16€.


What do you think about this way of tradnig and what can be the traps or warnings to watch at, because normally the odds should drop from the finish of 1st half to the beginnig of the second half... Any experience with trading at half-time...

Marry Christmass and Happy New Year from kelme

[pellumb341]

yes it's true,the "under" odd drops a lot in first 5-6 minutes of second half (so the over gets much higher),but you have to be lucky not to be scored any goal in this timeframe ,from 45 min to 51th-52th minute.This is a good method,you first bet under,wait 5-6 minutes and then bet over,but you need a little luck.

[allin1]

there are different things to look at

if there is a definite favorite at the beginning of the match, then odds will tend to move differently than in other matches (when it comes to goals, more goals are expected regardless of the score at HT )

The lines can also react depending on how the game is going: how many attacks, shots on target, attempts...

I believe there are certain "strategies" that have an edge in trading at half time and will make profits in the long run but it is best to study these, back test a lot and also try to filter out the games you will trade in, depending on your approach. For example some strategies work best when there is no favorite in the game, others work only if there is a big favorite at odds less than 1.6 before kick off.

[kelme]

You're right allin1 - I forgot to write, that I looked only at matches with no clear favourite like Barca, Real, Cit

[Boxing Champ]

You're right allin1 - I forgot to write, that I looked only at matches with no clear favourite like Barca, Real, Cit

Yeah...Real and Barca are never clear favorites...

[cro]

he said he doesn't look at matches with clear favorites like them.

[kelme]

... we sometimes write too fast before reading... I see that cro understood what I ment because the odds for real, barca... as goals are expected don't change to much like in a game between lazio and roma when the under 1.5 start lowering quickly soon after the start of the game - further on I will start putting odds changes between half times on the over/under goals market...

So in a while we will be able tho see in which games odds change rapidly in half time... I hope that someone helps me so we could do it faster...

I made that trading once now and it was succesfull... I'm not gready - if I do that twice a day with a higher stake I could get 40-50€ without a goal destroying the trade...

cheers

by Kelme

[kelme]

Hy to everybody in the 2012,

the year started quite good with the tests

Today I backed the under 1.5 market on sunderland - city at the finish of the first half at 1.91 - the odds got higher and went to 1.95 by the start of the second half, so I waited for 5 minutes of the second half and layed at 1.88 for 10€ of profit...

So I decided to make another trade since city tried to score but nothing to do and backet the odds at 1.66 and sold immediately at 1.64 for 7€ of profit

Hope that someone else decides to share his tactics of buying and selling in the game...

BY, Kelme

[kelme]

Hy to everybody in the 2012,

the year started quite good with the tests

Today I backed the under 1.5 market on sunderland - city at the finish of the first half at 1.91 - the odds got higher and went to 1.95 by the start of the second half, so I waited for 5 minutes of the second half and layed at 1.88 for 10€ of profit...

So I decided to make another trade since city tried to score but nothing to do and backed the odds at 1.66 and sold immediately at 1.64 for 7€ of profit

Hope that someone else decides to share his tactics of buying and selling in the game...

BY, Kelme

[kelme]

Hy,

since not having a lot of time for today's games I looked to lay chelse on pre-match today... I layed Chelsea at the odds 1.61 and then backed them with 0€ prifot loss, since I had no figure where the odds will go...

5 min before the start of the game the odds for backing were aorund 1.64 so I would be in profit if I have waited for a little bit longer... This is a test, but as I can see by watching the odds to trade, it is good to lay a team (better if playing away) 5-6 hours before the match...

any comments?

by, Kelme

PS: by the end of january I hope to start real pre-match trading and gaining profit

[kelme]

it is even better to lay at lower odds even a day before

[kelme]

had some time, so decided to go for a trade in Fulham - Arsenal...

At the beginning layed Arsenal at 2.00 and sold at 2.04 for 11€ profit and at half time layed over 1.5 at 1.23 and than sold at higher odds -don't remeber now (but the odds went in the brak time down so i waited for 3 minutes in the second half) for 11€ of prifit - it was quite risky because a goal would mean a big big loss...

sometimes we think that 3 minutes are nothing but ass ManU in the CL final against Bayern scored twice in 2 min - IN SOCCER EVERITHING IS POSSIBLE

by kelme

[kelme]

probably the las trade today if no golas will be scored in the game - backed the under 2.5 market at 1.42 and layed at 1.35 for 30€ profit, because both team tend to play in the middle...

by kelme

[allin1]

here is an idea for a type of strategy:

you place 2 bets on different markets (on the same game) pre-match. At half time one loses, the other makes a profit OR one loses and the other one remains active and has to be layed for a profit or loss.

The idea is from a controversial strategy that was probably BS but you can find different combinations that have an edge and will make money in the long run if you choose your games carefully. You have to study a lot of cases to get good at it but from what I have studied, it is possible to find profitable approaches. You have to combine different markets like: half time result, full time result, goals...

[kelme]

Good idea allin1, becouse yesterday I made a mistake, that almost ruined my bank and fulham saved me, with a late goal and the game finished in good profit ...

I was thinking about combining goal markets and half time score - ex. betting over 2.5 and dutching cs like 1-1, 1-0 or something like this in games where goals are expected; maybe I should look forward for more secure bet without risking so much

Do you have any examples for the kind of bets that you wrote about...

[allin1]

one strategy of this kind was something like this:

lay half time correct score 0:0
back full time correct score 0:0

the stakes must be in such way that if a goal is scored in the first half you cover your losses from the second bet and make a profit

if the score at ht is 0:0 then you lose your first bet and now you have to lay your second one. if the odds move in your favour you can still make a profit and recover your first loss but I don't think this strategy works any more (presuming it once did)

in any type of strategy of this kind you will find out that some matches present an opportunity but most don't because

1. the pre match odds have to be good enough to give you a chance to lay at half time without taking an overall loss

2. the lines move quite different depending on different factors. you have to backtest it a lot and get used to how the in-play odds move

if you develop a strategy that will have losses along the way but has an overall edge, then you will make money until the markets change

[kelme]

Paper writing can preserve you lots of headaches that are involving your bank... but sometimes we just hurry too much...

[kelme]

Hello,
today I'm taking a break -since there is no "hot stuff" going in play

yesterday I traded Panatinaikos that played away - the home side was leading - I put 7€ on panatinaikos win at 14, after few minutes I put 5€ on draw 10€ and at the end I layed the home team for 50€ at 1.1 - in the 94 minute panatinaikos scored for 1-1 and I have immediately greened up for 84€ - not bad for a trade with small stakes... maybe a little bit of luck

by kelme

[kelme]

Hello, today I made some big ups and downs that thanks god finished in + ... so for the evening I have 2 tickets and I hope that I won't have reasons to cover them on BF

Wycombe v Huddersfield - Correct Score (Backing 1 - 1 OR 0 - 1 OR 1 - 2 OR 1 - 3 OR 2 - 2 @ 2.08)
2 Liverpool v Oldham - Half Time/Full Time (Backing Liverpool/Liverpool OR Draw/Liverpool @ 1.17)
3 Burton v Accrington S - Half Time/Full Time (Backing Burton/Accrington S OR Accrington S/Burton OR Draw/Accrington S @ 4.87)

Trebles
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2 and 3 11.92 €10.00 €109.20



1 Burton v Accrington S - Half Time/Full Time (Backing Draw/Burton OR Burton/Burton @ 2.8)
2 Wycombe v Huddersfield (Backing Wycombe @ 3.77)
3 Liverpool v Oldham - Half Time/Full Time (Backing Oldham/Liverpool OR Draw/Draw @ 9.74)

Trebles
Selections Odds Stake Potential win
1,2 and 3 103.4 €5.00 €512.00

[kelme]

I got the stake back (15€), for laying cs at huddersfield's game at 0-3, so stake was saved

[kelme]

Hello to everybody... been beasy a lot in past weeks and months... never mind I'm back....
I started searching and reading some stuff (still football) and decided to look for two trades one is LTD at half times that in past proved to be godd for trading since odds go at least twice as you layed them, but you have to create your own stop loss rating and decide if you gonna step out in the 80.min or to risk the stake,
the second thing is trading as soon as the goal was scored at the 2.5 or 3.5 market - ex if the odds for under 2.5 are 1.8 and a goal is scored in the 25.min the odds for under will go crazy (up to 2.1-2.2) and will soon drop down in 5-9 mi, depends by the game...

I will be doing this for a while in "paper trading" and write down the results

I will be happy if somebody decides to try something close to this, so we could discus about it and improve the technik

cheers

[kelme]

Hello I'm back after a while... Hope that I have reached a more disciplene level than I had before...

So I have been testing lay the draw in the second half and it could be quite a good strategy, but 1 goal must be scored, since I don't back draw scores on correct score... (the game finished in a draw 1st half)

So everybody must decide his own stake that he can afford to loose...

So now I play for about 8€ and try to choose the teams that I think gonna score in the 2 half -
After a goal I decide to sell or to wait for a few minutes (possibli watching it on live stream)...
The quotas are from 2.4 to 2.8 - and if there si no goal I sell it at 1.2 ar 1.3 to loose only the st

If anybody has a good comment about it is welcame to do...